alanjjohnstone
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How bad does is it get that even Trump changed his mind before Johnson
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/us-trump-johnson-herd-immunity-aftershocks-book
The sanctions imposed from immediate effect. How does it help the Afghan people?
Can capitalism fix things. People say that the CFC Montreal Treaty did.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58248725
Can they do it again is the question
Over and over again I read WHO statements about vaccine nationalism, of countries putting their own interests against the scientific consensus, first on the vaccine rollout and now on booster shots yet people cannot make the connection that will be exactly how climate promises and pledges will go, vested interests and domestic politics will take priority, James
Taliban are likely to face a rapidly developing financial crisis, with foreign currency reserves largely unreachable and western aid donors – who fund the country’s institutions by about 75% and account for 42.9% of GDP – already cutting off or threatening to cut payments.
Ajmal Ahmady, Afghanistan’s central bank governor, commented, that the “Taliban won militarily – but now have to govern. It is not easy.”
Gen Sir Nick Carter, the head of the British armed forces, said he thought the Taliban wanted an “inclusive Afghanistan” and described them as “country boys” who had “honour at the heart of what they do”.
Asked about the Taliban’s repression of women, Carter said: “I do think they have changed and recognise Afghanistan has evolved and the fundamental role women have played in that evolution.”
Asked about Carter’s position, Johnson’s spokesperson said: “He was reflecting what was claimed by the Taliban.”
An article suggests that the Taliban are the moderates who will will have to suppress extremists
“…the Taliban in power may find themselves fighting their own insurgents, composed not of those loyal to the former US-backed government but those who see their new rulers as sellouts…”A BBC economic analysis of Afghanistan’s future
new scheme in the UK will see up to 20,000 Afghans offered a route to set up home in the UK in the coming years.In the first year, 5,000 refugees will be eligible – with women, girls and others in need having priority.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58250211
Yet they place the Royal Navy to stop equally desperate and equally traumatised refugees crossing the Channel.
Who is really to form the league table of vulnerable and damaged asylum seekers?
How long before the racists of the likes of Britain First begin to harass those Afghans who risked their lives in the service of the UK?…small brains, short memories.
YMS, the members of the IRA had an ideology, hence how some remained dissident real IRA after the Good Friday deal.
Are you suggesting that the former Afghan National Army had motives for fighting beyond those of personal survival and subsistence?
Nor am I so sure that the core of ISIS was indeed Ba’aathists put out of a job although some Iraqi militias may have recruited them. Wasn’t it the Muslim Brotherhood and its variants the recruiting ground for ISIS?
But I fully agree that the Taliban has to integrate people from the old regime and that has been the task of all successful take-overs since the Bolsheviks for a smooth transition and perhaps even the French Revolution (Khmer Rouge was an exception).
The Taliban are already offered rapprochement to the civil servants and to shopkeepers and tradespeople to work normally.
The immediate goal is to ensure the economy works without US Dollar aid. I don’t think the NGOs will be able to substitute for American money even if a lot of it was diverted by corruption to the Gulf States.
Out of vengeance the USA may impose stringent sanctions on the Taliban and strangle it in a hope of destabilising it with discontent but my view is that would embolden the more puritanical Islamists, not the moderates.
But who am I? I’m no expert other than a Googler? Anything might occur, it is going to be speculation and guess-work until whatever shall be, will be, as Doris Day and the Tartan Army sing.
A useful report on the Iranian oil workers strike by the ICT.
https://libcom.org/blog/iranian-oil-petrochemical-workers-strikes-go-15082021
I think we should operate Occam’s Razor and go for the simplest explanation.
Al Qaida who carried out the 2001 terror attacks did have its base in Afghanistan, sheltered by the then Taliban government, (who did actually offer to take Bin Laden into custody but the US declined to trust the integrity of the Taliban’s intentions)
A 20-year war for domination seems a high price for a pipeline when the Americans couldn’t even secure the 2-mile route from the embassy to the airport according to news reports as far back as 2018. Officials travelled back and forth by helicopter, not the road.
The Russian pipeline has since been built and Afghanistan didn’t feature in its route
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Pipeline_ConsortiumOur blog has posted details on the extensive business affairs of the Taliban finances here
https://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-taliban-global-enterprise.html
The drug industry is worth $416 million to them but there are also independent actors involved in the poppies, such as the former Northern Alliance militias that still exist outside the Taliban control and had a de facto ceasefire with the government and the Americans. I heard a commentator today saying they didn’t melt away and put up fierce resistance to the attempted Taliban takeover of their territory.
But the report says the Taliban gets about the same amount of income from the mining that already takes place in the country.
I’ve been reading a number of progressive American websites and they are giving Biden (and even Trump) credit for pulling the plug. As they say, when you find yourself in a hole, first you stop digging.
Israel’s Peace Now organisation said a plan for 9,000 housing units near Atarot Airport – between the Palestinian neighbourhoods of Kafr Aqab, Qalandiya and ar-Ram south of Ramallah – was moving ahead.
If this plan goes through, it will be the first new settlement in East Jerusalem since former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government built the Har Homa settlement in 1997.
“This is a very dangerous plan which might bring a blow to the two-state solution,” said Peace Now. “The planned neighbourhood is at the heart of the urban territorial Palestinian continuity between Ramallah and East Jerusalem, and thus will prevent the possibility of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
“This will block the eastern connection of East Jerusalem to the West Bank as well as disconnect Ramallah and the north of the West Bank from Bethlehem and the south of the West Bank,” said Israeli rights group Ir Amim, referring to the E1 area.
The Israeli authorities are already working on their E1 plan, which involves creating a contiguous, Israeli built-up area extending from Jerusalem to the Maale Adumim settlement – 11km (5 miles) beyond the Green Line, or the internationally recognised boundary that separates Israel from the West Bank. Critics argue the West Bank now resembles a Bantustan because of the lack of a viable and contiguous Palestinian territory.
China has launched live-fire air and sea exercises near Taiwan in response to what it called “external interference and provocations by Taiwan independence forces”.
Col Shi Yi, the spokesperson of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command, warships, anti-submarine aircraft and fighter planes were dispatched to the south-west and south-east of Taiwan on Tuesday.
In response, Taiwan’s defence ministry said: “The nation’s military has a full grasp and has made a full assessment of the situation in the Taiwan strait region, as well as related developments at sea and in the air, and is prepared for various responses.”
Other than the military and the armament industry that profits from war, there is the authors and historians and memoir writers who will be writing their views and opinions on what happened for the next year.
One industry that won’t be, will be Hollywood, who will have to wait for a few years before adding the celluloid interpretation of what happened but perhaps another ‘Blackhawk is down’ Somalia movie could be made.
But it is very possible that the Taliban-rule will present a very different face from the previous version and the religious repression will remain out of view. Perhaps a parallel with Iran’s theocratic dictatorship can be made, or Saudi Arabia.
I find it astonishing that so many countries have now all of a sudden found room for Afghan refugees when a few months ago they were being refused and returned.
Meantime
The Taliban has issued a general amnesty for all government officials, urging them to return to work with “full confidence”.
“A general amnesty has been declared for all… so you should start your routine life with full confidence,”
