Bijou Drains
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To be fair to TW –
Here is an equivalent load of bollocks from the other side, written by the fabulously named David Parsley from the i newspaper owned by the “The Daily Mail and Trust” and operated “independently” from the Mail.This propaganda piece badly disguised as journalism claims a 1 in 20 death to casualty ratio for the Ukrainians in comparison to a 1 in 3 death to casualty rate for the Russians.
https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-troops-fear-uk-trained-ukrainians-front-line-2163923
The situation regarding Sarwar might be slightly more complex due to the football/sectarian intricacies of West Coast Scotland.
Celtic supporters have made a big claim of being immigrant friendly and it is claimed more ethnic minority Scots support Celtic than support Rangers.
Also Celtic fans have recently begun display flags supporting Palestine with Rangers fans using Israeli flags at Ibrox.
Old Firm supporters I have met really struggle with the concept of anyone not being on one side or the other of the sectarian divide.
When asked by Old Firm fans which side I really prefer I have taken to saying I like both teams and like them both to do well, which really confuses them.
TW – “Fighting Nazis is glorious work”
So you’ll be thrilled by the number of deaths amongst the Wagner Group troops?
“I’m not going to re-watch a bunch if his videos to find the figure for you lot just to say what a load of crap it is”
So basically your “source” is a video that you claim exists, which you claim you think you have heard at some point.
However, you claim you can’t remember exactly where it is and you can’t be bothered to find it.
So basically the equivalent of “I think I heard some bloke say it in a pub”
TW – “You’ve never asked for my source on casualties. It’s Andrei Martyanov”
So your figures are based on the work of a Russian living in the US. So, just like you, his figures (if they concur with you, and I can’t see anywhere on line actually stating a figure of deaths of Ukrainian troops on any line article, although I am happy to be directed to them) are effectively based on conjecture, rather than direct evidence.
Having read your comments over some time I have noticed that the more you find it a struggle to support your arguments effectively, the more you resort to insult. I am inferring (note the correct use of the word) from your recent post that you must be really struggling to justify your patently ridiculous exaggeration of the Ukrainian death toll.
Your frankly gruesome and blood thirsty glorification of the deaths of fellow workers on both sides of this grubby capitalist dispute does you no favours
According to TW – The Ukrainian Forces are on their last legs, and that they have had 200,000 deaths and very few survivable casualties, but on the other hand they’ve a troop strength of over 1,000,000 troops. (So presumably that makes 800,000 troops available)
On the one hand the Ukrainians overinflated their troop numbers and are unreliable but on the other their troop numbers are greater than the ones that the Ukrainian’s have announced.
On the one hand sources such as the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Moon of Alabama are the source of reliable data, yet his estimates of Ukrainian deaths are much greater than the ones provided by his never revealed “sources” which are reliable and correct.
It looks like TW doesn’t know whether he’s batting or whether he’s fielding
The brilliant “Poor Old Ireland” released by Lindisfarne and writtenby the late great Alan Hull in 1972, is one of the few songs produced through the troubles that gives a perspective that Socialists could concur (The Town That I Loved so Well, is probably another one)
Lyric are:
Poor old Ireland, poor old universe,
Wonder who comes off the worse.
Poor old people mistreating misbelieving,
I think you’ve been cast by a curse.
But I don’t want you to die, I can see all the lies
There’s nothing there that’s new.
But there’s still no need to make blind children bleed,
Even if what you say is true.And meanwhile in the aisles of the churches with style,
They’re singing their songs to the Lord.
And the preacher’s carping that for failure on earth,
Heaven will be your reward.Poor old Ireland tortured by past and
Tarnished by future’s curse
Poor old Ireland, poor old planet,
Poor old universe.Oh Ireland your people mean more than the idols
You seek to set upon earth
And the day that you see that’s the day, that all of your
Sadness and sickness will die.For the enemy you seek to destroy is not the
One who’s causing the pain
He’s disguised himself well with his book and his bell but
Evil is still his name.Poor old Ireland tortured by past and
Tarnished by future’s curse
Poor old Ireland, poor old universe
Wonder who comes off the worse.BD -“That said, it is interesting that suddenly (when it suits you) you are starting to rely on data provided by the Ukrainian side”
TW “So predictable. I was anticipating this very retort. We all know no men, even teenage boys, are allowed to leave Ukraine and that there are countless videos of Ukrainian civilians being dragged off the streets and press-ganged to the front. The Kiev Nazis also have their own version of the volksturm. The figures of men pressed in to military service is one number we can trust.”
Is that the sounds of straws being clutched at???
TW – “The defence minister added: “We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national guard, police, border guard, we are around a million-strong.”Jul 11, 2022”
Even if you go with the figure of 700,000 (the national guard, the police, border guards are not currently enlisted), your figure of 200,000 deaths is wildly improbable.”
As I have said the tooth the tail ratio of front line troops to logistical tail has a minimum of 1:3 (probably higher) that gives a front line strength of 175,000 front line troops. Add to that a death to serious injury ratio of even 1:2.5 (which is highly unlikely) your 200,000 figure (which you actually said was proabably much higher) would entail another 500,000 seriously wounded. That leaves 700,000 dead or wounded. So given that figure, who the hell are the Russians still Fighting?
That said, it is interesting that suddenly (when it suits you) you are starting to rely on data provided by the Ukrainian side, having trashed their intel and Western Statistics and media throughout this debate. You frequently state that the Ukrainians have been exaggerating their firepower, yet all of a sudden they are accurate?
Has it occurred to you that the Ukrainian Defence Minister might have a vested interest in inflating the figures he announces when he is interviewed in the Times, when the Ukrainian government are busy trying to persuade Western powers to continue to supply them with arms?
Other research through other sources show a different perspective:
Statista.com, whose reputation is reasonable, not great but reasonable, state the following figures:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/
Apologies, she was elected on to the UCU Pensions Committee originally and that was on the UCU Left slate.
Calling all Conference Delegates in pre-92… USS National Dispute Committee election
TW – “The figure given by van der Layan was 100,000. Already very high.”
If, as has been claimed, Von der Layen (sic) had confused casualties with deaths, then the figures would probably stack up (approximately 1:4 ratio death to serious injury). Giving a death toll of about 20,000. I’m not saying this is correct, just saying that this was the explanation given.
TW – “Well, that’s easy. First of all, you are comparing apples and oranges. The modern battlefield is nothing like that of WW2. Drones, satellites, guided missiles, jets, helicopters, modern optics and targeting computers have all revolutionised war. It’s the difference between catching a fish based on a hunch or using sonar. Apples and oranges.”
But, unfortunately, this does not appear to be the case at all.
The following is a very robust analyis of probablity of death in battle during the period 1900 to date (carried out using a variety of analytical tools including to statistically analyze the data, including using a linear ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of the logged (base 10) ) by Marcel Arsenault
The researcher’s methodolgy was as follows ” I plotted the predicted average number of battle deaths for three periods: that prior to World War I, the interwar period between 1914 and 1945 (including the World Wars), and the period following World War II. In essence, these are the lines that best fit the observed data, along with 95 percent confidence intervals for those predictions.”
He went on “I plotted the predicted average number of battle deaths for three periods: that prior to World War I, the interwar period between 1914 and 1945 (including the World Wars), and the period following World War II. In essence, these are the lines that best fit the observed data, along with 95 percent confidence intervals for those predictions. While it is possible to see the decline in predicted battle deaths following the end of World War II, there is also a notable increase in battle deaths prior to World War I.”
So if anything (although the change in the statics are small) the lethality of war during battle has possibly declined, rather than increased.
As you say there have been technological advances in terms of weapons of war and the war machines used, however there has been a comensurate advance on means of defence. For example body armour has increased and the survivability rate in tank attack has massively increased. My uncle was a tank driver in the 2nd world war and the fatality rates were phenominal and the chance of death or serious injury were very high (The Sherman tank was nicknamed the Ronson after the cigarette lighter slogan ““A flip and it’s lit”). In comparison the modern tank with advanced armour is far more protected and safe.
Even if you were correct in terms of the lethality of war (which you are not), this still leaves you with problem that given your claim that more than 200,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, a death to serious injury ratio (even using one based on the American Civil War!!!) means that the claimed 500,000 Ukrainian troops would have been either killed or seriously injured, yet they quite cleary haven’t. The only conclusion that can be made is that your claim of 200,000 deaths is unsupportable.
Looks like there’s a chance of another Union victory to add to the settlement by the Firebrigade’s Union. The UCU have paused action on the University Industrial Action for the next two weeks, following talks with ACAS.
The UCU have said there is progess on restoring pension benefits whilst securing a reduction in employer payments
The USS trustees have stated “The latest information provided by the USS Trustee suggests that the forthcoming 2023 valuation is likely to reveal a high probability of being able to improve benefits and reduce contributions. Should this be confirmed, this would allow for a return to a comparable level of future benefits as existed before the April 2022 changes, as well as achieve a
reduction in costs for members and employers.”As well as that the employers are talking to their members of ending the process of non-voluntary zero hours contracts and it also looks like there is progress on an improved pay offer.
The UCU left (the SWP in a cunning disguise) have been squawking about leadership betrays. The current gen sec was elected on the UCU Left ticket and there solution to the succession of leadership betrayals is, that’s right, you guessed it, better leaders!!!
Death of Marina Yankina – The Russian Investigative Committee and the press service of the Western Military District ‘Fontanka’ have confirmed her death and have started an investigation regarding her mysterious fall.
Seems to be a bit of a spate of high ranking Russians falling out of windows or shooting themselves.
On December 26, Pavel Antonov, the deputy of the Russian Duma died in India after falling out of a hotel window.
The former chief of Russian Ground Forces Aleksey Maslov died in hospital on December 25
Aleksandr Buzakov who served as the head of Russia’s ‘admiralty shipyards’ for a decade died on December 24.
Also
Leonid Shulman, 60, Director of Transport of Gazprom, 30 January 2022
Igor Nosov, 43, CEO of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (KRDV) and former Deputy governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, 8 February 2022
Alexander Tyulakov, 61, Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center of Gazprom, 25 February 2022
Vasily Melnikov, 43, CEO and owner of Medstorm, 23 March 2022 Wife and two sons found dead beside him
Vladislav Avayev, 51, Former Vice President of Gazprombank 18 April 2022 Wife and 13-year-old daughter found dead beside him
Sergey Protosenya, 55, Former Deputy Chairman of Novatek.19 April 2022 wife and daughter found dead in their beds with blunt axe wounds and stab wounds
Andrei Krukovsky, 37, General Director of the Estosadok Krasnaya Polyana, a ski resort owned by Gazprom 1 May 2022
Alexander Subbotin, 43, Board member of Lukoil, 8 May 2022
Yuri Voronov, 61, CEO of Astra Shipping, a subcontractor of Gazprom 4 July 2022
Ravil Maganov, 67, Chair of Lukoil, 1 September 2022 (Reportedly hospitalised for heart problems and depression, then “fell out of a window”)
Ivan Pechorin, 39, Director of Aviation of the Russian Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (KRDV). 10 September 2022
Vladimir Sungorkin, 68, Editor-in-chief of Komsomolskaya Pravda 14 September 2022
Anatoly Gerashchenko, 72, Former Head of Moscow Aviation Institute, 21 September 2022
Nikolay Petrunin, 46, Deputy of the State Duma 12 October 2022
Nikolai Mushegian, 29, Co-founder of MakerDAO, a cryptocurrency company, 28 October 2022
Grigory Kochenov, 41, Creative Director of Agima, an IT company, 7 December 2022 Reportedly fell to his death from his balcony while officials from the Investigative Committee executed a search warrant for his apartment
Vladimir Bidenov, 61, Business associate and travel companion of Pavel Antov, 22 December 2022 – India Hotel Sai International, Rayagada, Odisha, India -Died of heart problems, though reportedly had no prior history, two days later his close companion died at the same hotel under suspicious circumstances
Pavel Antov, 65, Founder of Vladmirsky Standart, a meat processing company, and deputy (member) of the Legislative Assembly of Vladimir Oblast, 24 December 2022, India Below a window of Hotel Sai International, Rayagada, Odisha, India Fell out of window from Hotel Sai International, another Russian colleague, Vladimir Bidenov, died in the same hotel two days prior.
Magomed Abdulaev, 61, Former Chairman of the Government of the Republic of Dagestan 5 January 2023 Died at a hospital after being hit by a car while crossing a street
Dmitry Pawochka, 49, Former manager of Roscosmos, Sukhoi, Lukoil, Bank Menatep and Russdragmet, 26 January 2023 17th floor of a building on Leningradsky Avenue, Moscow, Burned alive after falling asleep with a lit cigarette
Vladimir Makarov, 72, Former Russian police general, had been in charge of cracking down on protesters. 13 February 2023 At his suburban home northwest of Moscow, State-run TASS news agency reported him found dead, in an apparent suicide, following his dismissal by President Vladimir Putin.If I was TW, I would move into a bunglaow, just to be on the safe side.
