Russian Tensions
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BD – “ratio of 100,000 front line troops to 400,000 logistical troops.”
TW – “I must admit I only skimmed your post before replying. Alone, there were 100,000 far right militia at the beginning of the conflict. I fundamentally disagree with your calculations. Your estimates of frontline troops are off the scales wrong.”
So, TW, can you enlighten me as to why my estimates of frontline troops are “off the scales wrong”
Do you question my figure of 500,000 Ukrainian troops over the course of the conflict? Are you are saying the number is higher?
The 500,000 figure is the figure given by the US and the Ukrainians, the Russians are estimating far smaller numbers.
Is it that the Ukrainian military are actually underestimating the number of its troops.
I can think of many, many examples of military forces and countries over exaggerating the size of their forces. The 1,000 bomber raids very rarely reached 1,000 planes, the Allies in the Second World War invented a whole Army force during the Normandy landings, the Union Army in the Civil War exaggerated the number of guns by using black pained logs as mock up of guns, Saddam Hussein was in part responsible for the story about WDM, Goring invented large numbers of planes and pilots during the 1930’s. There have been examples of tactical use of lowering numbers to attempt to lull enemies into false confidence, but I cannot think of a single example of this being done in terms of overall figures.
So does TW think that somehow he has information, so unusual, that the Russian armed forces do not know about?
Or is it that my estimation of teeth to tail ratios are wrong?
The figures given by Table from John J. McGrath, “The Other End of the Spear: The Tooth-to-Tail Ratio (T3R) in Modern
Military Operations.” The Long War Series, have a ratio of greater than 1:3 for every major war in the 20th Century. The tooth to tail ration for the US Civil War was estimated at 1:1.5. Even if we take that as our benchmark (which is crazy because of the change in the technical nature of warfare) this would give a breakdown of the 500,000 troops of 200,000 combat soldiers and 300,000 logistical support troops. So for your estimate, every single Ukrainian front line soldier had been killed. Not only that, working on US civil war figures (where medical support was practically nonexistent) the death to serious injury figure hovered around 1:1.5. Using these figures, which are underestimates of an unbelievably level. Not only would 2/5ths of the Ukrainian Armed forces to date have been killed, the rest would have been seriously wounded.Let us put the figure of deaths you have confidently predicted for the Ukrainian army into some context.
The North African Campaign in the Western Desert between 1940 and 1943 has death figues of:
British 35,478 killed
Free French 16,000 killed
United States United States 2,715 killed
6,528 missing in action
Italy 22,341 killed
Germany: 18,594 killed
3,400 missing
Vichy France 1,346 killedA total of 106,402
If you then add the deaths for the Italian campaign (1943 – 1945)
Where an estimated 60,000 allied troops were killed and 38,805 (German figures taken from Germany and the Second World War published by the Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt) this makes a total of 98,805 troops killed from the Allied and German sides.So in the whole of these two campaigns, from 1940 – 1945 a total of 203, 207 troops were killed, yet in one year of this “Special Military Operation”, one side of that conflict, the Ukrainian side, has suffered the same level of casualties taken by all sides of these 5 years of full scale war?
Again just to add a little context, these campaigns included the following episodes:
The Battle of Sidi Barrani
The Battle of Beda Fomm
The capture of Tobruk
The siege of Tobruk
The fall of Tobruk
The Siege of Malta
Battle of Mersa Matruh
The first battle of El Alamein
The Second battle of El Alamein
The Invasion of North Africa (The Torch Landing)
The battle of Kasserine Pass
The Siege of Tunis
The invasion of Sicily (The Operation Husky)
The Salerno landings
The Battle of Anzio
The Liberation of Rome
The four assaults on Monte Cassino
The River Rapido crossings
Storming the Winter Line
The River Po CrossingsTo name just a few
So perhaps you can correct my estimates and show me how I have got it so wrong?
Death of Marina Yankina – The Russian Investigative Committee and the press service of the Western Military District ‘Fontanka’ have confirmed her death and have started an investigation regarding her mysterious fall.
Seems to be a bit of a spate of high ranking Russians falling out of windows or shooting themselves.
On December 26, Pavel Antonov, the deputy of the Russian Duma died in India after falling out of a hotel window.
The former chief of Russian Ground Forces Aleksey Maslov died in hospital on December 25
Aleksandr Buzakov who served as the head of Russia’s ‘admiralty shipyards’ for a decade died on December 24.
Also
Leonid Shulman, 60, Director of Transport of Gazprom, 30 January 2022
Igor Nosov, 43, CEO of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (KRDV) and former Deputy governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, 8 February 2022
Alexander Tyulakov, 61, Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center of Gazprom, 25 February 2022
Vasily Melnikov, 43, CEO and owner of Medstorm, 23 March 2022 Wife and two sons found dead beside him
Vladislav Avayev, 51, Former Vice President of Gazprombank 18 April 2022 Wife and 13-year-old daughter found dead beside him
Sergey Protosenya, 55, Former Deputy Chairman of Novatek.19 April 2022 wife and daughter found dead in their beds with blunt axe wounds and stab wounds
Andrei Krukovsky, 37, General Director of the Estosadok Krasnaya Polyana, a ski resort owned by Gazprom 1 May 2022
Alexander Subbotin, 43, Board member of Lukoil, 8 May 2022
Yuri Voronov, 61, CEO of Astra Shipping, a subcontractor of Gazprom 4 July 2022
Ravil Maganov, 67, Chair of Lukoil, 1 September 2022 (Reportedly hospitalised for heart problems and depression, then “fell out of a window”)
Ivan Pechorin, 39, Director of Aviation of the Russian Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (KRDV). 10 September 2022
Vladimir Sungorkin, 68, Editor-in-chief of Komsomolskaya Pravda 14 September 2022
Anatoly Gerashchenko, 72, Former Head of Moscow Aviation Institute, 21 September 2022
Nikolay Petrunin, 46, Deputy of the State Duma 12 October 2022
Nikolai Mushegian, 29, Co-founder of MakerDAO, a cryptocurrency company, 28 October 2022
Grigory Kochenov, 41, Creative Director of Agima, an IT company, 7 December 2022 Reportedly fell to his death from his balcony while officials from the Investigative Committee executed a search warrant for his apartment
Vladimir Bidenov, 61, Business associate and travel companion of Pavel Antov, 22 December 2022 – India Hotel Sai International, Rayagada, Odisha, India -Died of heart problems, though reportedly had no prior history, two days later his close companion died at the same hotel under suspicious circumstances
Pavel Antov, 65, Founder of Vladmirsky Standart, a meat processing company, and deputy (member) of the Legislative Assembly of Vladimir Oblast, 24 December 2022, India Below a window of Hotel Sai International, Rayagada, Odisha, India Fell out of window from Hotel Sai International, another Russian colleague, Vladimir Bidenov, died in the same hotel two days prior.
Magomed Abdulaev, 61, Former Chairman of the Government of the Republic of Dagestan 5 January 2023 Died at a hospital after being hit by a car while crossing a street
Dmitry Pawochka, 49, Former manager of Roscosmos, Sukhoi, Lukoil, Bank Menatep and Russdragmet, 26 January 2023 17th floor of a building on Leningradsky Avenue, Moscow, Burned alive after falling asleep with a lit cigarette
Vladimir Makarov, 72, Former Russian police general, had been in charge of cracking down on protesters. 13 February 2023 At his suburban home northwest of Moscow, State-run TASS news agency reported him found dead, in an apparent suicide, following his dismissal by President Vladimir Putin.If I was TW, I would move into a bunglaow, just to be on the safe side.
“yet in one year of this “Special Military Operation”, one side of that conflict, the Ukrainian side, has suffered the same level of casualties taken by all sides of these 5 years of full scale war?”
The figure given by van der Layan was 100,000. Already very high. Remind me, how many Nazis died in the 5 months of fighting in Stalingrad?
“So perhaps you can correct my estimates and show me how I have got it so wrong?”
Well, that’s easy. First of all, you are comparing apples and oranges. The modern battlefield is nothing like that of WW2. Drones, satellites, guided missiles, jets, helicopters, modern optics and targeting computers have all revolutionised war. It’s the difference between catching a fish based on a hunch or using sonar. Apples and oranges.
Secondly, a pipsqueak of a country, (granted, the largest military force west of Russia), goaded the most powerful land army in the world in to a war. That takes a very special kind of stupid. The military strategy of these clowns is to launch suicidal offensives for no other reason than PR and photo ops. They are driven to this fanatical stupidity by their paymasters who fund the entirety of their war effort and threaten to cut and run if such operations aren’t carried out. In addition Zelensky has his very own notion of Hitler’s never retreat orders which lead to encirclement and annihilation.
You don’t like these facts, well have another cup of copium because facts don’t care about your feelings.
“If I was TW, I would move into a bunglaow, just to be on the safe side.”
Oh, isn’t that charming? Bojo’s brains just figured out people die. Here’s something else that’ll blow your mind…Santa is your mum and dad! Lol
And all the people who haven’t died? How do they fit into your cute little conspiracy theory? This friends is what is known as the “Texas Sharpshooter fallacy”. Look it up Bojo, you’ll be a slightly less stupid clown if you do so.
More on casualties – solely the Wagner mercenaries
30,000 casualties with about 9,000 KIA
Half of the overall KIA have occurred since mid-December.
I have not seen any reliable figures for POWs for either side
TW – “Well, that’s easy. First of all, you are comparing apples and oranges. The modern battlefield is nothing like that of WW2. Drones, satellites, guided missiles, jets, helicopters, modern optics and targeting computers have all revolutionised war. It’s the difference between catching a fish based on a hunch or using sonar. Apples and oranges.”
But, unfortunately, this does not appear to be the case at all.
The following is a very robust analyis of probablity of death in battle during the period 1900 to date (carried out using a variety of analytical tools including to statistically analyze the data, including using a linear ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of the logged (base 10) ) by Marcel Arsenault
The researcher’s methodolgy was as follows ” I plotted the predicted average number of battle deaths for three periods: that prior to World War I, the interwar period between 1914 and 1945 (including the World Wars), and the period following World War II. In essence, these are the lines that best fit the observed data, along with 95 percent confidence intervals for those predictions.”
He went on “I plotted the predicted average number of battle deaths for three periods: that prior to World War I, the interwar period between 1914 and 1945 (including the World Wars), and the period following World War II. In essence, these are the lines that best fit the observed data, along with 95 percent confidence intervals for those predictions. While it is possible to see the decline in predicted battle deaths following the end of World War II, there is also a notable increase in battle deaths prior to World War I.”
So if anything (although the change in the statics are small) the lethality of war during battle has possibly declined, rather than increased.
As you say there have been technological advances in terms of weapons of war and the war machines used, however there has been a comensurate advance on means of defence. For example body armour has increased and the survivability rate in tank attack has massively increased. My uncle was a tank driver in the 2nd world war and the fatality rates were phenominal and the chance of death or serious injury were very high (The Sherman tank was nicknamed the Ronson after the cigarette lighter slogan ““A flip and it’s lit”). In comparison the modern tank with advanced armour is far more protected and safe.
Even if you were correct in terms of the lethality of war (which you are not), this still leaves you with problem that given your claim that more than 200,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, a death to serious injury ratio (even using one based on the American Civil War!!!) means that the claimed 500,000 Ukrainian troops would have been either killed or seriously injured, yet they quite cleary haven’t. The only conclusion that can be made is that your claim of 200,000 deaths is unsupportable.
TW – “Oh, isn’t that charming? Bojo’s brains just figured out people die.”
Just strange that a lot of the ones that die and are connected to the regime seem to be falling out of the 15th floor of high buildings or murdering their family before they die
TW – “The figure given by van der Layan was 100,000. Already very high.”
If, as has been claimed, Von der Layen (sic) had confused casualties with deaths, then the figures would probably stack up (approximately 1:4 ratio death to serious injury). Giving a death toll of about 20,000. I’m not saying this is correct, just saying that this was the explanation given.
Apologies, I’m in a bleak mood. ISTR the Vietnamese NLA worked out that maiming soldiers was more effective than killing them. Sending home angry men unable to work imposes a burden on your opponent. So, if more Ukrainians are dying than Russians of their wounds, then that spells doom for Russia, as they’ll have to live with the burden of the wounded (on top of paying all the war widows). Maybe True Scotsman is telling us the Russians are going to succeed themselves to death.
Promising news that China is preparing a peace plan
“China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi, one of the few external politicians able to influence Russia, announced that China would launch its peace initiative on the anniversary of the war, and has already been consulting Germany, Italy and France on its proposals.
He said the peace plan would underscore the need to uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and the UN Charter. But at the same time he said the legitimate security interests of Russia needed to be respected.”
“More on casualties – solely the Wagner mercenaries
30,000 casualties with about 9,000 KIA
Half of the overall KIA have occurred since mid-December.”
Source? Let me guess…Guardian? CIA? Ukrainian Intelligence. Bet it’s one of those three!
French president, Emmanuel Macron listed the four clear defeats Putin has already suffered.
The war he had started was long, not rapid;
not legitimising but neocolonial;
not strategically prescient, but one that has drawn Sweden and Finland into Nato’s orbit;
and not prestige-enhancing, but mistrust-engendering.
The answer is half a million. 500,000 Nazis killed in 5 months in Stalingrad. You can kill plenty of people in a year. The Ukrainian death toll is at least 200,000. But you do you. You wanna believe Bubblegum the rainbow unicorn lives at the bottom of your garden, be my guest.
Three scenarios
1. Russia launches a new offensive on Kyiv, as well as in the Donbass and the province of Kherson. These attacks fail, however. Russia loses many men and a large chunk of the four provinces annexed. Ukraine retakes Russian strongholds and moves toward Crimea.
This scenario would pave the way to ceasefire and eventually to genuine peace negotiations (that would not be synonymous with Russian victory). For Ukraine, with victory there are no “negotiations”2. A series of military wins for Russia from the end of the winter. The country retakes most of the Kherson province, threatens Kyiv directly from Belarus and marches on toward Odessa.
Such successes would see a clear Russian victory in Ukraine, consolidating the annexations and a pro-Russian government. Ukraine would lack the unity which is necessary to rebuild the country.3. A third outcome for this conflict could see prolonged and protracted war, the inability of either protagonist to gain the upper hand.
This scenario does not preclude intense fighting and limited success on both sides but would fail to change the balance of the conflict.Again, nobody, not even experts, hold a crystal ball.
But whatever the outcome, one prediction we can definitely make, the working people will pay the price of victory or defeat.
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