Young Master Smeet
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'Fraid I'm not going to plough through and fact-check it, seems plausible enough at face value. The point, though, is that it's a non-debate, for some parties to the debate, any state spending is overspending.One issue is that borrowing is actually the way the state saves: states can't put money aside for a rainy day (if it takes money by taxation, it has to use it, else it should cut taxes). Arguably, a rational state should borrow as much as it can.But, he whole issue come back down to growth, so long as the economy is growing, it doesn't really matter; buit the more the state spends, the less capital there is for expansion and investment, and that is the limit. So, the only way to prove Labour overspent would be to to show a fall in fixed capital formation:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gross-fixed-capital-formationNow, on the 10 yr scale, it's clear that capital formation nose dived; however, it was going upwards before then, if Labour's spending had been choking investment there'd have been at least a slowing of growth prior to 2008. All the indications are that 2008 was a sudden shock (and in any case was caused by teh world economy, not Labour spending).
Obviously, debt as a % of GDP depends on how big GDP is, so during a crisis GDP falls and the ratio of debt rises, automatically.Debt is not deficit. the deficit is the gap between income and spending (or, put another way, it is the rate at which the debt grows). So, debt:GDP could be 1% but if the deficit was 100% of GDP that would be quite alarming (though not necessarily fatal, the only point of practical difficulty is when income can no longer cover at least the interest on the debt, since the government never has to pay down the principal, it can always 'roll-over' it's debts with new loans). Even then, so long as the economy is growing, that's not so much of a problem.Imagine anyone who has ever taken out a mortgage. In that year, they spent 300% of their income. If every year they move to a bigger more expensive home, they will have a deficit of 300% each year (give or take some quibbles), but that will not be a problem if each year their income rises as well, and they are acapable of servicing the debts. If they were immortal, like a state, they culd go on for ever doing this. Since we're not immortal, banks would get jittery eventually that an unrepaid loan was heading their way.So, as Corbyn and Miliband and Brown before him) propose, you can run a deficit based on only borrowing to buy capital assets, in the above example, the house, since you can always tell your creditors you will have a house to repay with. Obviously, the trick is money is fungible, even if you don't nominally spend borrowed money on eating (current account expenditure) the fact that you are borrowing to buy assetts means you can divert more of your income into living costs and current expenditure, so it's a bit of a slight of hand distinction.The real problem is that the capitalist class use their ownership of debt as a political weapon, to get their way.
Ah, hands up whop knew there was fighting going on in Turkey:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_PKK_rebellionParticularly in Cizre:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_CizreSadly spokespeople for the Kurds are talking of how building trenches round their districts make people feel safer, which means, I fear, that this revolution will fail under force of arms:https://rojavareport.wordpress.com/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/opinion/the-kurds-democratic-experiment.html?_r=2
Quote:For a former diplomat like me, I found it confusing: I kept looking for a hierarchy, the singular leader, or signs of a government line, when, in fact, there was none; there were just groups. There was none of that stifling obedience to the party, or the obsequious deference to the “big man” — a form of government all too evident just across the borders, in Turkey to the north, and the Kurdish regional government of Iraq to the south. The confident assertiveness of young people was striking.She goes on to note how Rojava is being slowly crushed by Turkey and US indifference. I doubt it will survive Russia's intervention, but it will continue to bleed even after then.
Portugal Ahead were coming from a high point of 50%+ of the vote, and could still be unhorsed by a left-bloc, so claims they won the elction are considerably premature. What is clear, is PA retain considerable support. Although, it's worth noting the 56% turn-out, that should worry the powers that be…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=n6eewDO4Qbw&app=desktopParty Political Broadcast with Corbyn.It's well done, simple, and quite clever. It's got a simple message 9annoying music) but I think the stinger line 'Campaigning is fun, come join me.' is very strong.
OK, I admit it, declaring he would never press the button is genius: he has the mandate, and if PM it would be a democratic mandate to have but not use nukes.
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/redcar-canary-coal/4281
Quote:But beyond the local crisis, Redcar could be – yet again – the canary in the coalmine for a global problem. For what 2008-9 told us is: every time there’s a major credit event, the steelworks on Teesside shuts.There are other canaries dropping off their perches as I write. Glencore, the controversial mining and commodities trading company, lost a quarter of its value on stock exchanges overnight. Like all mining companies it is exposed to the sudden slowdown of China and other emerging markets – but it is an outlier in terms of the amount of money it has borrowed.Oh, and this appears to be on his reading list, given he names Mariana Mazzucatohttp://marianamazzucato.com/the-entrepreneurial-state/
Quote:The book comprehensively debunks the myth of a lumbering, bureaucratic state versus a dynamic, innovative private sector. In a series of case studies—from IT, biotech, nanotech to today’s emerging green tech—Professor Mazzucato shows that the opposite is true: the private sector only finds the courage to invest after an entrepreneurial state has made the high-risk investments. In an intensely researched chapter, she reveals that every technology that makes the iPhone so ‘smart’ was government funded: the Internet, GPS, its touch-screen display and the voice-activated Siri.Mazzucato also controversially argues that in the history of modern capitalism the State has not only fixed market failures, but has also actively shaped and created markets. In doing so, it sometimes wins and sometimes fails. Yet by not admitting the State’s role in such active risk taking, and pretending that the state only cheers on the side-lines while the private sector roars, we have ended up creating an ‘innovation system’ whereby the public sector socializes risks, while rewards are privatized. The book considers how to change this dysfunctional dynamic so that economic growth can be not only ‘smart’ but also ‘inclusive’.And in an article in New Statesman a few years ago:
Quote:So how can we change the narrative of the left from one of "redistribution" to one that champions value creation, in which both risks and rewards are shared more equally? Let's first agree that the market is not a bogeyman forcing short-termism but a result of interactions and choices made by different types of public and private actors. We need to stop talking about the public sector "de-risking" and facilitating "partnerships" and talk more about the kind of public risk-taking that led to all the generalpurpose technologies and great transformations of the past, a change of language from general "partnerships" to more detailed commitment about the kinds of partnerships that will lead to greater, not lower, private investment in long-run areas such as research and development and human capital formation.(She did quote Polyani in the same article, though).Oh, and she underlines the patient in this part of McDonnel's speech.
Quote:That requires patient long term finance for investment in research from a effectively resourced and empowered national investment bank.Here's McDonnell's full speech:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/full-text-shadow-chancellor-john-mcdonnells-speech-to-conference/
Quote:First we are throwing off that ridiculous charge that we are deficit deniers.Second we are saying tackling the deficit is important but we are rejecting austerity as the means to do it.Third we are setting out an alternative based upon dynamically growing our economy, ending the tax cuts for the rich and addressing the scourge of tax evasion and avoidance.Fourth having cleared that debris from our path we are opening up a national discussion on the reality of the roles of deficits, surpluses, long-term investment, debt and monetary policy.Fifth we will develop a coherent, concrete alternative that grows a green, sustainable, prosperous economy for all.Quote:We’ll also turn the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills into a powerful economic development department, in charge of public investment, infrastructure planning and setting new standards at work for all employees.Not much in there that sounds like it's been anywhere near Marx…
Bugger.Quick back of a fag packet maths: half a million on Teesside, gives a working population of about150,000 (roughly a third of the total) 1,700 jobs to go, immediately, with supply chain and knock on jobs pretty certain. That's 1.13% of the workforce going in one blow.
http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/business/business-news/ssi-workers-set-paid-after-10126712
Quote:The Government has reached an agreement which will provide cash to pay SSI workers tomorrow, the Gazette understands.It is believed HMRC has released around £4m by bringing forward tax payments following talks with the Redcar firm’s Thai parent company.The money will allow SSI to meet its monthly wage bill, which is due to be paid to workers tomorrow.It must be nice being a capitalist, and getting the state to pay your workers (obviously, that's profits robbed from other capitalists, but I'm not going to begrudge the workers who need that money). Although I'm hearing supply chain firms have been laying off workers without pay.As Community note, the state will have to bear the cost of redundancies if SSI are fundamentally broke (and then also the costs of clean-up).Also, its worth noting this is probably an effect of the Chinese slow down, and the knock on fall in commodities prices. Worldwide problems need worldwide solutions, not government protection.
jondwhite wrote:Are surges in support or membership for newly credible political parties or movements mainly, mostly or all simply a case of workers 'jumping on bandwagons'?Another way of putting this is that we don't make political decisions individually, or in isolation: any apparent personal decisions take place in a situation, and if people you know (and like) are thinking and doing in a certain way, you are more likely to do so; and if you see people like yourself (or like people you know and like) thinking and doing in a certain way, then you are more likely to think and do likewise.The SP is like this also, not only does it bear resemblance to left-wing organisations, but also comes from a working class autodicdact tradition and non-conformism, and the tradition of the evening class and the street meeting.
I think part of this is the SNP and Corbyn: both came from outside the normal bands of what is considered possible, so people may well be beginning to see that their actions can take effect. Further, as with the SNP, nothing succeeds like ssuccess, if people see a movement and a direction fo travel, they are inclined to join in.I think it's fair to infer from the millions of workers who have encountered the party case and rejected it that they don't see it a a rolling band wagon, so they don't jump on. Maybe, as ALB says, greater participation in parties and projects may throw us a few bones…
At least there is some sort of organising going on:http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/13780962.Save_Our_Steel__Emergency_rally_in_Redcar_today/
Quote:SSI steel workers, their families and friends will hold an emergency rally in Redcar today to call on the Prime Minister to save the local steel industry.Supporters of the Save Our Steel campaign will gather in the Majuba Road Car Park, Redcar, from 6.45pm this evening.
