Young Master Smeet
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BBC and TASS are both reporting that the Russians are claiming to have captured the district of Krasny Hora to the north of Bakhmut: which puts them almost inside the town and cutting off northern supply routes.
Now, the BBC are reporting Russian losses of 800+ per day (pinch of salt: but RT & Tass are not talking up Ukrainian casualties, and not mentioning Russia casualties: but the fighting is intense, Russia has more men it can lose: and if Bakmut falls, it will probably involve the surrender of thousands of Ukrainian troops).
Tactical advances have been made in Kremennaya in Luhansk, but fighting in Ugledar doesn’t seem to be being highlighted, where the twittersphere says things are not going well for the Russians (and there doesn’t seem to be any propagandising pushback on that).
Truescotsman:
You don’t see it as a victory because you don’t understand the nature of the conflict. Russia’s main goal is demilitarization. To do this one does not need to take ground one needs to kill the enemy and destroy his ability to further make war. This Russia is doing with ruthless efficiency. Ukraine has lost 6,500 KIAs just this January, mostly in Bhakmut.
Out of an army half a million strong, that’s a spit in the Ocean: again, look at the precedents, the Iran Iraq War, the Korean War: humans are sadly replaceable.
Yes, the precedents of prolonged attritional trench war is that one side will break in the rear, after horrific carnage, but that might not come soon. And, don’t forget, Kyiv is basically pawning its future here into economic dependence on Europe, it will get the logistical supplies it needs not to break like that.
If it’s a fair fight then both sides weary. This is not a fair fight.
There are still costs, even if unevenly distributed. Russia has, on paper, far more military resources, but it has to keep a lot in reserve to protect it’s own territory. It’s supply lines are in a hostile environment, and need to be protected.
Actually it could with a thrust from Belorus down along the Polish border. But Russia seems happy enough to allow NATO to continue demilitarizing itself by sending its war material to be reduced to molten slag.
Materiel can be replaced, simple destruction is inefficient, NATO has deeper pockets than Moscow.
Cutting the Polish border would also need to cut the Romanian and Moldovan borders: which would be come with severe supply line problems, and would just open the Russians to be being bled by guerrilla warfare.
I’ll just note that Bakhmut has not yet fallen: a town with about the population of Redcar (not a huge city) has taken this long to fall…
Moon of Alabama does quote sources comparing the situation to WWI:
The problem is that Ukraine is losing the war. Not, as far as we can tell, because its soldiers are fighting poorly or its people have lost heart, but because the war has settled into a World War I-style battle of attrition, complete with carefully dug trenches and relatively stable fronts.
Such wars tend to be won — as indeed World War I was — by the side with the demographic and industrial resources to hold out longest. Russia has more than three times Ukraine’s population, an intact economy and superior military technology. At the same time, Russia has its own problems; until recently, a shortage of soldiers and the vulnerability of its arms depots to missile strikes have slowed its westward progress. Both sides have incentives to come to the negotiating table.I can’t see any occasion I’ve described it as stalemate (I did describe it a ‘zugzwang’), however, even inching over into Bakhmut after a five month fight is hardly the sound of a resounding victory in the offing: attrition wearies both sides. Unlike WWI Germany, Ukraine cannot be cut off.
The better example, to my way of thinking, is the Iran/Iraq war, which lasted 8 horrific years.
The BBC are preparing for the fall of Bakhmut
Oleksii says the fighting in Bakhmut is tough, emotionally and physically: “It’s hard, but we are staying here, and we will protect Bakhmut and the area around it as much as we can.”
But Ukraine is counting the cost and there’s speculation it could withdraw to avoid further heavy losses.
Well, it seems that that was the helicopter of the interior minister.
from the Beeb:
There is no indication the crash was anything other than an accident, although witnesses said Russia’s war was to blame for the disaster.“It was very foggy and there was no electricity, and when there’s no electricity there are no lights on the buildings,” local resident Volodymyr told the BBC. which is probably true…
Just to add some points:
Each organisation would have definite ends: i.e. a shoe factory might have the mission statement of ‘Providing enough shoes for the whole community’. Within that, they might have performance targets that “there should be shoes of varying purposes and designs that are long wearing and comfortable and able to resist water.” This provides a rational basis for decision making when assessing inputs. The chief thing is that socialist production is with a definite end in mind, which is to provide for the democratically agreed needs of the community. they would be aware of the global plan to ‘provide all human beings with sufficient footwear for their needs’ and would take part in discussions of how that could be achieved, and what resources (including human) would be needed.Even today, project management software allows for project planning to achieve defined goals, and this would still be available in socialism.
I’ll add an important point that there can be no compulsion to labour, so we’re only providing each other with what we’re willing to work to provide each other.
As Alan says, other methods might be applied. For example stable matching algorithms might be useful (say for housing allocation) or adjusted winner auctions could be useful at a ‘wholesale’ level. There are some interesting tools at http://www.spliddit.org/ These all provide rational and computable approaches that could help get goods where they need to be to achieve our goals.
individual Anarchist actions in Russia The most interesting reports here are the rail sabotage and the possibility of fraternisation on the “zugzwang” of the front.
Interesting on the state of both armies’ morale. This war probably will be settled by a mutiny.
TUC planning to do… something?
The TUC will hold a national ‘protect the right to strike’ day on Wednesday 1 February.
The announcement comes following a meeting of trade union leaders today.
Events will take place in different parts of the country against the Conservative’s new anti-strike legislation.
And members of the public will be invited to show their support for workers taking action to defend their pay and conditions.
More information will be provided in the coming weeks about planned activities.
Well, ok, nought like determined action…
Might be able to get to that one.
Nice and clear from Chomsky:
It was not hard to predict, as we did over the months, that sooner or later Russia would resort to U.S.-U.K.-Israeli tactics: Quickly destroy everything that sustains a viable society. So they are now doing, arousing justified horror among decent people — joined by those who implement or justify these tactics with the “right agency”: us. The strategic incentive is clear enough, especially after Russia’s battlefield setbacks: Destroy the economy and the will to resist. All familiar to us.
Quite definitely war crimes, whether in Iraq, or Gaza, or Ukraine.
And some will still accuse him of being Pro-Putin. Also, interesting on the role of Democrat Presidents.
TS, no, let’s try this again:
Try this link, and then search within the page for “20,000”http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/70159
Or is the Kremlin transcription service an imperialist stooge?
Neither of your links work. The Russian Minister of Defence would not have made such an error. Your source either has a typo, a mistranslation or is outright lying. It’s impossible to know which.
You might be Geoblocked, try searching for ‘Russian Ministry of defence’ and then click on their news link (or directly copy the URL into your browser).
Also, there is a version on Moon of Alabama:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/russia-takes-new-steps-to-secures-its-western-border.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02af1c9576a3200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02af1c9576a3200dBut, to reiterate, my source is the official website of the Russian Ministry of defence.
Don’t know where that number comes from. Out of a hat? The actual number of recent volunteers for the Russian military exceeds 70,000.
My quote was from the Russian Minister of Defence, or is he a Guardianista bro?
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12449212@egNews
I forgot: In the meantime, every precaution is being taken to prevent the deaths of civilians. : thousands will die of hypothermia and lack of sanitation, this is a flat out lie.
This appears to be the text of Shoigu’s speech.An increase in the fighting and troop strength of the Russian Armed Forces was necessary to stabilise the situation, defend the new regions, and launch additional offensives.
For this, a partial mobilisation was conducted. It served as a gauge of Russian society’s maturity and served as a rigorous test for both the nation and the armed forces.
Plans for mobilisation hadn’t been implemented since the Great Patriotic War. The actual mobilisation system was not completely adjusted to the changing economic relations.
Therefore, with the start of partial mobilisation, Russia encountered difficulties in notifying and recruiting citizens who are in the reserve.
Every flaw had to be immediately fixed. Military administration, formations, and units’ organisational and staff structures underwent changes as soon as possible.
There were immediate steps taken to enhance all forms of support.
Partial mobilisation measures were fully and on-time carried out. About 300,000 reserve citizens received military service calls.
The coordinated efforts of the state’s federal and regional authorities have been crucial in this situation.
Social activism is to be particularly emphasized. More than 20,000 people joined as volunteers before being called.
More than 830,000 people have been excused from conscription to help the nation’s economy, including those who work in the defence industry and a variety of other socially significant fields. Note that ratio, only 20,000 volunteers.
Control of the North Crimean Canal has restored water supply to the Crimean peninsula, which had been absent for eight years due to the water and energy blockade. This confirms this was a key objective. Not much discussed in the media.
