Bijou Drains
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Re the nuclear threat, my take is that it might be that Putin thinks he might have pissed on his chips.
Evidenced by what we read from the media (with all of the caveats that must include) some of the thoughts I have come to include:
Reports of 1/2 of troop numbers being engaged does not imply that that the Russians are holding back, only having 1/2 forces is logical for any military strategist, it is necessary to have strategic reserves, giving flexibility if necessary and it also allows you to supplement logistics.
From a military point of view it might also be that Russia has been relying on its ferocious reputation from WW2 for a little too long. If Ukraine can hold off 1/4 of Russia’s standing army without the nuclear threat, then from a conventional army point of view it may be that is some ways Russia appear to be a bit of a busted flush. If they are struggling with that, then taking on Poland, the Baltic nations, Rumania, Hungary, etc. would be well beyond their grasp.
In terms of the technology of war, there is always a little bit of guesswork of what works and what doesn’t and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Although Ukraine has a large amount of ageing Soviet/Russian armaments, it has some of its own designed armoured personnel carriers and it has large numbers of Western designed anti tank and anti aircraft systems. It might be that the some of the Russian systems are not as robust as were first thought, certainly there have been many reports of aircraft being downed and tanks being destroyed, which seems to indicate that these systems are more effective than the Russians thought.
Again this may be conjecture, but the seeing increase in the degree of confidence that NATO members may be showing (agreeing to more arms, the Germans signing off deployment of weapons, etc) might be a result of better than expected performance from the Ukrainian side and the threat of going nuclear may be because the Russians (or really Putin and his mates) think that their forces have achieved less than what they think they should have done.
How far the impact of all of this has on Putin is debatable though. He appears to have more control of the state machine and more control of the political system than anyone since Stalin.
I have been rereading Michael Voslensky’s Nomiklatura, which discussed the appointment of Stalin’s successors and his take was that the cabal at the top of the Soviet Communist Party deliberately appointed nonentities, who could be removed by his rivals as necessary. Putin doesn’t appear to have any rivals and as such so getting rid of him might not be as easy.
AC “as the average Brit blames foreigners for everything anyway.”
I think that is grossly unfair and a gross exaggeration, the majority of the people I meet in various people do not react in that way at all. The gobshites, the ones who hog the media and the social media may respond that way, however most of the people in workplaces and boozers that I meet have a pretty jaundiced view of what is going on in Eastern Europe.
The press would like us to think that Johnson has a whopping majority, whereas he in fact only has a plurality, he got 43.6% of votes on a 67.3% turnout. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Little England movement.
Similarly the Brexit vote was 51.89% of 72.21% turnout. Given that a large proportion of vote leave were not blaming foreigners but tangled up in a variety of different viewpoints, it would be pretty hard to justify a view that average Brit is xenophobic.
The level of political sophistication in the world is much higher than we give people credit.
Seems to me like the most likely outcome, the effective annexation of the Eastern region of Ukraine and keeping them as a buffer state against EU and Nato. I think the regime change attempt in Belarus was maybe the final straw of the West power play. Next stage in the great game would be Putin putting pressure on other areas of conflict. Perhaps Georgia, Bosnia and or Syria.
I think the survival of the Assad regime has emboldened the Russian Capitalist class, however any talk of being a new cold war ignores the fact that in the original cold war the USSR had client states all over Africa, Central America, Asia, etc.
Finance will win out, Russia is a busted flush with the advent of non fossil fuel economy. The Russian state (effectively the fossil fuel oligarchies) are making a play whilst their stock is high, give it a five years and the falling impact of mineral wealth will reduce the military might of Russia. At the end of the day military spending is reliant on tax, which is a levy on capital. The Capitalist class in Russia will squeal about having to have a high tax economy when there is high levels of military and state security spending.
I don’t expect that it will lead to a widespread European war. The Minsk protocols stated that the Eastern states had an effective veto on Ukraine joining Nato and or EU. The fact that Putin has renounced the veto may be an indicator that he knows that he has not got the power to stop the Ukraine joining the EU and then Nato.
Needless to say no drop of Working Class blood should be shed in supporting either side of this Capitalist conflict and no doubt there will be division between the Trots, Tankies and various neo Bolsheviks which way to jump.
Good job the clueless rank and file Trots, Tankies and neo Bolsheviks have got leaders to tell them which section of the capitalist clas to support otherwise they’d be wetting their pants not knowing how to think!
BBC Lunch time news seems to be winding down the rhetoric, saying some form of negotiations will take place when the Russian manoeuvres are over, perhaps their good friends at Vauxhall Cross have tipped them the wink?
The majority of people I meet in pubs have very little interest in the situation in the Ukraine, most are more interested in the price of a pint and the ongoing drama of Newcastle United FC.
The only comments I have heard about it in pubs was two people of my generation saying they don’t want their grand kids to have to go and take part in a war, and a general feeling that Johnson is using it to distract people from Partygate
If you watch the following time line website I’ve linked, it does kind of explain why Putin is a little alarmed, especially considering the troule in Belarus and in Khazakstan. Not that I have any more sympathy for Russian National interests as I do for US/Western interests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#/media/File:Map_of_NATO_chronological.gif
Finland is still in the European/US sphere of influence and is within the EU, without being a member of NATO, as are Austria, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland. A Finland style resolution would be my best bet for a resolution to this, with the Ukraine staying outside the EU but making trade agreements that match all aspects of the Common Trade Agreement, etc.
“So I can have a coffee and watch Everybody Loves Raymond first, to settle me before switching on the news.”
If the Russians do take over, at least they might have funnier sitcoms than the Yanks and we will be spared having been force fed shite like “Friends”
This whole development must be placed in the geo political context.
Historically Russia has been hamstrung by geography; access to warm water ports has reduced its ability to develop blue water naval capability. Previous conflicts that have been stoked up by that issue have been the Crimean War, the Russo Japanese war of 1904-5, the Balkans wars, the Dardanelles Campaign, the Yugoslav wars, etc.
Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia’s strategic position (or more correctly, its capitalist class) has been in retreat. The minerals boom in the last 20 years has strengthened the Russian hand and this has increased their defence situation. Putin stated, “naval ambition broadened in scope and aimed at re-creating a large blue-water navy”. The Syrian conflict is a sign of this, Russia has developed its Naval facilities in Tarsus in Syria.
Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine are also a big part of Russia’s strategic interests. It is a natural assumption that USA and its allies will oppose this. Hence the US support for Syria, opposition to Iran, etc.
The Baltic flank is effectively secure for Russia because they still have access through Kaliningrad and it has a major naval port in Baltiysk. Although Kaliningrad is an exclave, at some point access to it might become a pressure point (Like Danzig was to the Germans in 1939).
It is also worth bearing in mind that in terms of finance and influence Russia is at its high tide. Moves away from fossil fuel are likely to hit the Russians hardest. As late comers on the world oil boom they have not had the time to build up sovereign wealth funds like the some of the middle east countries. Putin may think the time to push for concessions to the West is now, a mew arms race with the West at this point may have a similar impact on Russia as it did on the USSR.
The last factor is that Biden, Johnson and Macron are very unpopular, with Macron due to be at the polls this year. All three would like to pull a rabbit out of the hat and may well be creating the feel of a bigger issue, so that they can claim to have sorted it out.
Put in context the Russian “threat” is not as huge as it once was. Russia total defence spending is $61.7 billion, in comparison the UK, France and Germany’s spending is nearly $170 billion. Even before you take into account the inflated price western countries pay for armaments, this is a huge gap, which doesn’t include Italy £28.9 billion, Canada with $22 billion and the USA with $778 billion (even the smaller countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Spain, Portugal, etc, add huge war power to Nato. Nato far exceeds Russian expenditure, equipment, manpower and technology.
My guess is that Putin would be happy with a redrawing of the Eastern frontier of the Ukraine to ensure safe passage to the Crimea and The Findlandization of the Ukraine and Georgia.
The West’s problem is to try and sell that to the Ukraine and to pass that off as a victory for the West.
Thise who think this will end in a 3rd World War need to see that strategically, Hitler’s gamble in 1939 was always doomed to failure; the German economy was too weak to sustain it. Germany’s geographic position, military might and technological development was similarly weak.
Putin is in a less powerful situation than Hitler, his strength it appears is that he doesn’t havw the same profound lack of strategic understanding, knowledge of economics or geography & military intelligence that Hitler had. He also does not have the level of popular support or capitalist backing that Hitler did.If active paedophiles were sent to the gulags, at least I could finally say something positive about the USSR!
Should we consider asking Murray to have an interview in the Standard, we have done before, Tony Benn and Im pretty sure we had an interview in the early days with Paul Lafargue. It doesn’t mean that we agree, but I’m sure it would add a few copies to the Standard.
As far as I can see from what I have read, the thrombosis issue is linked to the Astra Zenica vaccine, rather than Moderna or Pfizer. The thrombosis types are, again as far as I have read, generally a specific type of thrombosis associated occuring with specific sites in the brain. (I don’t think that teh AZ vaccine was used very widely in Spain, but you would know better than me)
The Thrombosis occurances that were associated with the AZ vaccine also appear to have occured much earlier that the time you state, between 1 and 7 days
I think when the whole thing comes out in the wash we will be able to see what the long term, however my view is that we need to balance risks, i.e. the risk of a side effect (very rare) severe illness and or death from COvid (still rare but far more common than the fatal consequences of the vaccine.
I say that having suffered a small stroke in March last year, 4 days after my first AZ jab (I was assured by my GP that the two things were not linked but he didn’t look very convinced when he said it!)
Sorry I haven’t had a chance to contribute, I have been up to my eyes with some work related stuff. I will try and make a contribution at some point next week.
I have always been sceptical about the “fellow travellers” argument.
The various Christian recruiting organisations do not generally make a beeline to the other Christian sects, they look more at other faiths and the non-believers. They have been in the game for nearly 1,900 years more than we have, perhaps they’ve picked up a few tricks.
