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Is this (put forward here by a SDLP politician) the face-saving formula for Johnson — a customs border down the Irish Sea leaving Northern Ireland in the EU customs union and frictionless single market, perhaps endorsed by a referendum in Northern Ireland? After all, having thrown away its majority, the regime is no longer so dependent on the DUP and can dump them.
Incidentally, this is what the EU originally proposed (without the referendum). It was the May government that changed it to apply to the whole of the UK. But that was when they still needed DUP votes and went around with hand on their heart saying how dear to them was the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Actually (sorry!), XR does both. I have in front of me a leaflet put out by one of their local groups (in Sutton, South London) which says:
“The Government must create and be led by the decisions of a Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice”
and, seemingly pre-empting the decisions of such an Assembly:
“The Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025.”
The same idea as yours occur to me too: What if the Assembly reached the conclusion that the only framework within which the problem could be tackled was the abolition of capitalism and the common ownership and democratic control of the Earth’s resources — as it would have to, if really objective, as objectively (not a matter of opinion) this is the only such framework ?
Of course we should be present at demonstrations and meetings to put our view across to those there. And we will be in September and October (“Comrades from SW region are intending to come up to London to leaflet this event,” email message), not just in Britain but also in Calcutta as this extract from latest WSP (India) Minutes shows:
“That we organize a rally revealing climate breakdown on Sunday, 22 September 2019; turnout at 2pm at the College Square, Calcutta having to speak to the gathering and distribute leaflets (Bengali & English)”.
My point was about what we say to them. Do we endorse demands that capitalist governments should do more? Or do we say socialism is the only framework? Or both I suppose — which it what I thought you and Schken were going to reply !
My personal view is that capitalist governments will in fact be forced by economic circumstances and no doubt some political pressure to do more, not enough of course (because the competitive struggle for profits built-in to capitalism means they simply can’t do enough to tackle the problem properly) but still more, which will mitigate worst case scenarios based on them doing nothing.
I don’t want to be too “unalarmist” but this statement from the link is a bit vague as to what might happen:
“Under current business-as-usual pathways, global heating will cause a temperature increase of 2.0–4.9 °C by 2100 .”
There’s a huge difference between the effects of an increase to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels and an increase to 4.9 degrees. It looks unlikely that the UN IPCC’s target of limiting the increase to 2 degrees is going to be achieved (the other article referred gives it a 5% chance) but that doesn’t mean that it will be 4.9 degrees which would indeed be really disastrous. To over 2 degrees will have serious effects, but to nearly 5 degrees ….
Incidentally, here’s one comment on that study:
“The only bright point is that, as the study authors say, they haven’t factored in the plummeting cost of solar power,”
In other words, the outcome of your calculations depends on your assumptions.
None of us here are experts in this field so we do have to be guided by what scientists there say. The trouble is that they are not agreed, so we have to form a judgement but that does not mean that we have to follow those who are outliers.
All we can conclude is that there is a problem, that something needs to be done about, and that the more emissions are reduced the better. To what extent they will be under capitalism is another matter. But what do we do.? Join in demonstrations to try to get capitalist governments to do more or work to establish the framework within which the problem and its consequences can be dealt with rationally?
If West Midlands branch wanted to contest a seat I don’t think the EC would say “no”, but it would have to come from the branch. As it happens, the EC will be discussing the looming general election in a few hours. Luckily, the opposition “Rebel Alliance” has made things easier to plan by postponing the election till November (so a final decision can be made at the 5 October meeting) but we can’t know what might happen over the next few weeks to change things again.
This news item, drawn attention to on our blog, brings out well why capitalism can’t deal with the problem of climate change:
“Many Asian countries’ existing and expanding dependence on coalpower is undermining international efforts to fight greenhouse gas emissions and keeping the world on course to see catastrophic impacts from the worsening climate crisis, the United Nations has warned. Amid surges in demand for electricity, countries including India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are accelerating their move to cheap coal power.”
As long as burning coal (or oil or gas) is cheaper than using renewables, capitalist states are going to have recourse to it. In the competitive world that capitalism is states cannot be expected to opt for more costly energy, so undermining their competitiveness. It’s just not going to happen. Those for whom coal is the cheapest will only abandon this when other sources becomes cheaper. This might well happen eventually. but we can’t wait for this.
While I’m writing, I agree with Brian that this thread would be better if, instead of repeating doom and gloom stuff, we highlighted technical innovations and possibilities which show how the problem might be tackled if we had common ownership and democratic control of the Earth’s resources.
Here is further demonstration that Israel is a sectarian state whose non-Jewish inhabitants are second-class citizens, even those who are happy to be Israeli citizens and serve in its army and diplomatic corps:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-ambassador-to-panama-a-druze-decries-treatment-at-ben-gurion-airport/
You’re right. Here is an article from the April 1968 Socialist Standard analysing the Race Law that the Labour government had just brought in. And here’s the front cover:
CWO’s reply here, re-affirming that they still think that another world war will ultimately be needed if capitalism continues and their explanation why this hasn’t happened yet:
https://libcom.org/blog/review-money-totality-fred-moseley-28082019#comment-615245
So if global warming does get us a global war will. Talk about doom and gloom.
Amid all the events going on in Westminster at the moment this news item is perhaps not getting the significance it might deserve: the DUP agreeing to a border down the Irish Sea for agriculture and food products.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/dup-open-to-talks-on-allireland-food-zone-to-ward-off-backstop-38464852.html
“DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds says his party is open to discussions with Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a possible all-Ireland food standards zone as part of a solution to the Brexit backstop.
Mr Johnson told MPs yesterday that he wants talks on an all-Ireland approach to agriculture and food products.
He has suggested that agri-food could continue to be regulated on an all-island basis after Brexit, creating a regulatory barrier down the Irish Sea.”
Don’t know if the EU will agree to this, but it maybe part of the face-saving formula the Johnson regime is working on.
Definitely two (Cardiff Central and Folkestone & Hythe). We could add a third, in London, if a branch wanted. If so, the best would be Vauxhall (in which Head Office is situated) and where we have stood many times.
Somebody gave me their copy of the 15 August issue of the London Review of Books. There’s an article by Alexander Zevin ( of New Left Review) which makes a relevant point:
“The image of the EU held by those who still hope to reverse the Brexit vote is rarely darkened by its actions, from the devastation of Greece under Troika-imposed austerity, to the stagnation of Italy, whose modest fiscal stimulus runs foul of Europe’s draconian deficit and debt rules, to the way it treats those who cross its southern and eastern borders. Membership of such a club may look preferable to exclusion from it, but it’s unclear why there should be much enthusiasm about the choice.”
Or, of course, why people should get worked up in favour of the choice to leave it.
Here’s my answer to Jem Bendell, posted here a few days out:
I’ve just finished reading the XR Handbook, This is Not a Drill published for them by Penguins, which expounds the ideology behind their actions.
Here’s an example of their alarmism, from Professor Jem Bendell (echoed by Roger Hallam in that interview):
“My guess is that, within ten years from now, a social collapse of some form will have occurred in the majority of countries round the world … A likely collapse in rain-fed agriculture means that governments need to prepare for how to ration some basic foodstuffs …”
I predict that in ten years time he’ll have egg on his face. If I’m wrong, I’ll let him have some of my ration tickets.
Of course we are. We’ve been nursing two constituencies: Folkestone & Hythe and Cardiff Central.
The Election Committee has not been in favour of contesting a London constituency in view of the really derisory vote last time but maybe North London branch will want to stand again against Corbyn as at the last two general elections. Personally I’d be against this since, like the Euroelections, this one will be fought on a single issue with us not being able to get a word in edgeways and our small vote being squeezed even more, making us look stupid. We will have a chance to stand in London, covering a much wider area, in the Greater London Assembly elections next May.
