No Indyref2

February 2024 Forums General discussion No Indyref2

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 36 total)
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  • #236890
    Moo
    Participant
    #236891
    Moo
    Participant

    In my opinion, the general election result can only be turned into a vote for independence if over 50% of the people in Scotland who vote (or spoil their ballots) vote for the SNP & Scottish Greens.

    #236893
    ALB
    Keymaster

    That will be very difficult to achieve and, if they don’t, what will be the point of the SNP? They will have shot themselves in the footnote and deservedly disappear into the dustbin of history.

    If they really did have the support of a majority of the population of Scotland for breaking away from the rest of Britain they wouldn’t need to wait till the next general election or place their hopes in the legal system. They would be able to mobilise their supporters with mass rallies and other events to bring pressure to bear on the UK government to negotiate the terms of a referendum. They could even do what the Catalan separatists did and stage their own referendum.

    But they won’t do this because they know that the support they have for their “maximum programme” is lukewarm and sentimental and wouldn’t be ready to press the point.

    #236895
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    Sturgeon emphasises legality and didn’t the Catalan nationalists end up in the Spanish courts?

    She has called for a special SNP conference in the early new year to debate and decide specifically exactly what next to do.

    I think psychologically and emotionally whatever the process it will not duplicate 2014 experience. There will not be a repeat of the record-breaking participation.

    I was in Scotland for the referendum and the involvement of the people was impressive, both on the yes and no sides. Individuals truly believed their personal vote counted and they valued it and wore it literally on their chest in the form of stickers.

    Being somewhat detached now, I simply don’t get the same feeling from what I read that people care as much, much like the Tartan Army having any expectations to win at football or rugby.

    The arrogance of the “Scotland wha hae” nats will fade more and more. Perhaps we can catch some with the new hope of socialism as that disillusionment deepens

    If in the future independence is no longer a core issue for the SNP, I think the real question will be what is the point of the Labour Party in Scotland as the SNP out-competes it as the more effective social-democrat party. North of the border it could be the Labour Party that disappears and really who would miss it?

    Nationally, the SNP will develop a constant policy of gaining more and more devolved powers but to no avail as Westminister won’t be keen to surrender any power.

    The small Salmond Alba Party may become the home of the more radical nationalists who may advocate UDI.

    That is my take. fwiw

    #236903
    Lizzie45
    Participant

    “Chelmsford, don’t you agree that the history of humankind (post-primitive communism) is the history of class conflict, and that it was inevitable the capitalist class would take over the world?”

    Quite possibly. But the transition to socialism is a different matter entirely since it requires a majority of the world’s population (OK, working class) to both understand what is required and then to bring it about. Haha, no way! There’s more chance of me becoming the next Pope. 🙂

    #236904
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    Time in history is relative.

    Who would think that a few hundred years ago the poor and women would have a say in the running of the country, that someone from an immigrant family would be prime minister, that one’s sexual preferences would be one’s own private business and not the law?

    Change does come. Sometimes quicker than we anticipate. Sometimes at a plodding slow pace. I have seen the differences in attitudes and behaviour within my own lifetime and they have been for the better

    Will this generation of socialists see socialism?

    Perhaps not but we will have the privilege of participating in social change, no matter how little our contribution. We aren’t holding back social progress with out-moded ideas and are involved in the transformation, engaged in pressing society forward to a better system.

    Some of us are simply grateful for such an opportunity.

    #236926
    Moo
    Participant

    The SNP won 50% of the vote at the 2015 general election, so it is conceivable. SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland#Results

    Yes, I know the majority of SNP voters back then voted for them because they’re left-wing, and not because they (the voters) wanted independence.

    #236927
    Moo
    Participant

    I totally agree with ALJO’s last post.

    #238142
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    SNP to hold Special Conference to discuss and decide the way forward to secure independence in Edinburgh on 19 March

    #240399
    ALB
    Keymaster

    Well, well. It’s all over. Sturgeon has resigned, apparently under pressure from her MPs who feared for their seats if the SNP made the next general election a referendum on independence.They know this is a loser as so-called “independence” is not what most workers in Scotland can be persuaded to vote for.

    So hopefully that’s the last we will hear of the completely irrelevant – in fact crackpot — idea of Scottish separatism. It’s not going to happen and workers there are not going to be led to argue against other over the issue. It’s dead. Good.

    #240414
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    Was it the lack of enthusiasm for independence?

    Or was it the transgender issue that cost Sturgeon her popularity?

    Or is it something to do with the police fraud investigation into SNP finances?

    No doubt it will come out in the wash, eventually

    #240418

    Craig Murray has pretty much openly called her a Unionist asset[/url]: and he is set to publish some emails of hers with Stewart McDonald. There is the issue of her husband’s loan to the SNP (over £100k), and the £600K of donations to the SNP for Indyref that appear to have been swallowed up by the party’s regular accounts.

    All that said: I’ve never seen a politician look so happy at their resignation speech. As politicians go, I’ve always thought she was, by usual standards, very effective and straight forward, so I kind of believe her that it’s just the accumulated baggage of being in office for 8 years, and believing that the polarised opinions around her would get in the way of further progress of her cause.

    Unless she’s an incredibly good liar, I thought her anecdote about deciding to go during a long term party member’s funeral rang true.

    #240419

    Oh, and we can’t exclude the recent machinations in the Westminster Party and the change of leadership there.

    #240686
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    The Wee Frees and the SNP.

    Kate Forbes, in the running for the leadership is a member of the Calvinistic Free Church of Scotland so it is no surprise when opposes same-sex marriage, abortion clinic buffer zones, banning conversion practices and on gender recognition.

    Humza Yousaf, the other contender, is a practising Muslim, and opposes making the next general election a de facto independence referendum

    Ash Regan, a 3rd candidate for the job, resigned from the government over the transgender law.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/20/top-scotland-leadership-candidates-split-over-lgbt-rights

    #240690
    ALB
    Keymaster

    Looks, then, as if Labour is not going to have too much trouble winning back its traditional Catholic vote !

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