Young Master Smeet
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Normally a fairly pro-Russian source: with a very detailed account of the mess up at Vuhledar – I’d suggest this apparent honesty is in fact sophisticated propaganda, but it may be giving a semi-accurate account of the role of lack of proper co-ordination by Russian command, and the effect of NATO resources being given to Ukraine. It may also be pro-Wagnerite noise.
I think the main take away is that there was a failed assault by Russian forces at Vulhedar, and there were significant losses that the twitterbots couldn’t hide.
(BTW, I note, 7 days on from true Scotsman proclaiming the fall of Bakhmut, Ukraine is still holding it).
All this began before the war and reflects Russia’s appalling covid pandemic. The official death toll from the disease was 388,091, which would be relatively low; but The Economist estimates total excess deaths in 2020-23 at between 1.2m and 1.6m. That would be comparable to the number in China and the United States, which have much larger populations. Russia may have had the largest covid death toll in the world after India and the highest mortality rate of all, with 850-1,100 deaths per 100,000 people.
If you add pandemic mortality to the casualties of war and the flight from mobilisation, Russia lost between 1.9m and 2.8m people in 2020-23 on top of its normal demographic deterioration. That would be even worse than during the disastrous early 2000s when the population was falling by roughly half a million a year.
So, some of it is their own calculation.
The decline is associated with increased misery: the life expectancy at birth of Russian males plummeted from 68.8 in 2019 to 64.2 in 2021, partly because of covid, partly from alcohol-related disease. Russian men now die six years earlier than men in Bangladesh and 18 years earlier than men in Japan.
No source given, UN population data, again?
I think, in the core argument, Russia has experienced declining life expectancy, the article is correct, but the claim about Haiti, seem unsourced.
The world bank data is stark It shows a two year drop in life expectancy in 2019, for both sexes.
the Wikipedia article on life expectancy by country shows Russia in place 117, and shows that for men the expectancy is 66.49 years. Again, that’s Worldbank data.
Indeed, and the war in Chechnya, which, recognised as a civil war, seems to have followed a similar pattern. But there, it was within Russia’s recognised borders, and against Muslims, so it was backed. But, it seems, Putin has been on a Great Russian restoration by force project from day one.
Curiously, Sputnik, Tass & RT are silent on Bakhmut this morning, twitter is, as usual ablaze with updates…
Well, it looks like Bakhmut is about to fall, but Ukrainians avoided total encirclement and capture, and so they are able to withdraw in order.
Obviously, fog of war and propaganda prevails.
But it looks like rinse and repeat will be the next actions, as Russia moves on the next Ukrainian fortified position.
https://youtu.be/96gjjkOZpfg?t=1310
The interesting point is that he seems to be claiming the immediate objective is to ‘lock down’ Donetsk and Luhansk, and maybe over three years(!) push all the way to the Dnipro for a new border.
On a material level, the resources in the Donbas would be enough to repay the cost of the war to Russia…
There is a version of his works online Here so if anyone wants to read directly they can.
“Russian senators have upheld a bill ordering all public and private entities to use only Russian words in their official communication”
Ahem.
Oh my aching sides: Russia limits use of foreign words
Russian senators have upheld a bill ordering all public and private entities to use only Russian words in their official communication. The legislation adopted on Wednesday by the parliament’s upper house – the Federation Council – states that the only exception is words that have no Russian equivalent.
So, after waging a war, in part, because the language rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine were suppressed, ‘Multi-ethnic’ Russia attacks it’s minority languages.
As Wikipedia notes:
On 19 June 2018, the Russian State Duma adopted a bill that made education in all languages but Russian optional, overruling previous laws by ethnic autonomies, and reducing instruction in minority languages to only two hours a week. This bill has been likened by some commentators, such as in Foreign Affairs, to a policy of Russification.and
In 2020, a set of amendments to the Russian constitution was approved by the State Duma and later the Federation Council. One of the amendments is to enshrine Russian as the “language of the state-forming nationality” and the Russian people as the ethnic group that created the nation. The amendment has been met with criticism from Russia’s minorities who argue that it goes against the principle that Russia is a multinational state and will only marginalize them further.
It’s enough to make a cat laugh. There are 100 minority languages in Russia…
Truescotsman: So let’s compromise. Next time I watch one of his videos and he mentions Ukrainian deaths I’ll provide a link. BTW, the figure he states is 250k.
Challenge accepted. There is no harm in the none expert trusting authoritative sources, but sources need to be able to demonstrate their authority.
Speaking of statistics: UN verified civilian deaths : 8,006 civilians dead, 13K injured. Mark that down, not Nazis, bystanders (OK, that is similar to the pacification of Mosul alone, but then, this is just the verified figure).
I’m not going to re-watch a bunch if his videos to find the figure for you lot just to say what a load of crap it is.
That’s not how this works: you can provide timestamped links to Youtube, if you were confident in your sources. Remember, last time I chased a source of yours from a video, he was quoting a Telegraph article, which is not an entirely reliable resource. At present, I’m afraid I’d rate your word as low credibility on any subject matter, based on that alone.Yes, no one seems to be discussing the terms on which aid is being sent: if Ukraine is being turned into a debt satrapy of UK, US et al, what is the difference to it being conquered by Russia?
This article:
What are the conditions for EU‘s €18 billion for Ukraine? shows that a lot of ‘structural reform’ is demanded. (Interestingly, apparently these long term loans are practically interest free).Yes, there is the prospect of seized Russian assets being given to Ukraine, and reparations if they win against Russia, but it does seem that the Ukrainian state is now entirely paid for by foreign powers…
Has some interesting thoughts on casualty rates:
The war started in eighths week of 2022. There were thus 44 weeks in the rest of the year. With 300 dead per week the number of Russians killed until the end of 2022 was 13,200. (These numbers likely included the number of Wagner mercenaries killed but probably not those of the Donbas militia.)
The BBC then counts 2,400 killed in January and 1,700 in February.
They estimate, from Russian sources, about 160K Ukrainian casualties (they keep saying killed, but I don’t think this can be confirmed kills).
I think the BBC count will be low, due to the way it is compiled, and Russian MoD has every reason to exaggerate.
This comment won’t age well.
In many ways, I hope it won’t: Ypres’ bulge lasted 3 years or more: I kind of expected Bakhmut to fall weeks ago, but I occasionally here non-Ukraine sources saying Russian’s have been pushed back here and there, and their forces continue to resist encirclement. The battle has already lasted longer than Stalingrad.
