Bijou Drains
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If you watch the following time line website I’ve linked, it does kind of explain why Putin is a little alarmed, especially considering the troule in Belarus and in Khazakstan. Not that I have any more sympathy for Russian National interests as I do for US/Western interests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#/media/File:Map_of_NATO_chronological.gif
Finland is still in the European/US sphere of influence and is within the EU, without being a member of NATO, as are Austria, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland. A Finland style resolution would be my best bet for a resolution to this, with the Ukraine staying outside the EU but making trade agreements that match all aspects of the Common Trade Agreement, etc.
“So I can have a coffee and watch Everybody Loves Raymond first, to settle me before switching on the news.”
If the Russians do take over, at least they might have funnier sitcoms than the Yanks and we will be spared having been force fed shite like “Friends”
This whole development must be placed in the geo political context.
Historically Russia has been hamstrung by geography; access to warm water ports has reduced its ability to develop blue water naval capability. Previous conflicts that have been stoked up by that issue have been the Crimean War, the Russo Japanese war of 1904-5, the Balkans wars, the Dardanelles Campaign, the Yugoslav wars, etc.
Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia’s strategic position (or more correctly, its capitalist class) has been in retreat. The minerals boom in the last 20 years has strengthened the Russian hand and this has increased their defence situation. Putin stated, “naval ambition broadened in scope and aimed at re-creating a large blue-water navy”. The Syrian conflict is a sign of this, Russia has developed its Naval facilities in Tarsus in Syria.
Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine are also a big part of Russia’s strategic interests. It is a natural assumption that USA and its allies will oppose this. Hence the US support for Syria, opposition to Iran, etc.
The Baltic flank is effectively secure for Russia because they still have access through Kaliningrad and it has a major naval port in Baltiysk. Although Kaliningrad is an exclave, at some point access to it might become a pressure point (Like Danzig was to the Germans in 1939).
It is also worth bearing in mind that in terms of finance and influence Russia is at its high tide. Moves away from fossil fuel are likely to hit the Russians hardest. As late comers on the world oil boom they have not had the time to build up sovereign wealth funds like the some of the middle east countries. Putin may think the time to push for concessions to the West is now, a mew arms race with the West at this point may have a similar impact on Russia as it did on the USSR.
The last factor is that Biden, Johnson and Macron are very unpopular, with Macron due to be at the polls this year. All three would like to pull a rabbit out of the hat and may well be creating the feel of a bigger issue, so that they can claim to have sorted it out.
Put in context the Russian “threat” is not as huge as it once was. Russia total defence spending is $61.7 billion, in comparison the UK, France and Germany’s spending is nearly $170 billion. Even before you take into account the inflated price western countries pay for armaments, this is a huge gap, which doesn’t include Italy £28.9 billion, Canada with $22 billion and the USA with $778 billion (even the smaller countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Spain, Portugal, etc, add huge war power to Nato. Nato far exceeds Russian expenditure, equipment, manpower and technology.
My guess is that Putin would be happy with a redrawing of the Eastern frontier of the Ukraine to ensure safe passage to the Crimea and The Findlandization of the Ukraine and Georgia.
The West’s problem is to try and sell that to the Ukraine and to pass that off as a victory for the West.
Thise who think this will end in a 3rd World War need to see that strategically, Hitler’s gamble in 1939 was always doomed to failure; the German economy was too weak to sustain it. Germany’s geographic position, military might and technological development was similarly weak.
Putin is in a less powerful situation than Hitler, his strength it appears is that he doesn’t havw the same profound lack of strategic understanding, knowledge of economics or geography & military intelligence that Hitler had. He also does not have the level of popular support or capitalist backing that Hitler did.If active paedophiles were sent to the gulags, at least I could finally say something positive about the USSR!
Should we consider asking Murray to have an interview in the Standard, we have done before, Tony Benn and Im pretty sure we had an interview in the early days with Paul Lafargue. It doesn’t mean that we agree, but I’m sure it would add a few copies to the Standard.
As far as I can see from what I have read, the thrombosis issue is linked to the Astra Zenica vaccine, rather than Moderna or Pfizer. The thrombosis types are, again as far as I have read, generally a specific type of thrombosis associated occuring with specific sites in the brain. (I don’t think that teh AZ vaccine was used very widely in Spain, but you would know better than me)
The Thrombosis occurances that were associated with the AZ vaccine also appear to have occured much earlier that the time you state, between 1 and 7 days
I think when the whole thing comes out in the wash we will be able to see what the long term, however my view is that we need to balance risks, i.e. the risk of a side effect (very rare) severe illness and or death from COvid (still rare but far more common than the fatal consequences of the vaccine.
I say that having suffered a small stroke in March last year, 4 days after my first AZ jab (I was assured by my GP that the two things were not linked but he didn’t look very convinced when he said it!)
Sorry I haven’t had a chance to contribute, I have been up to my eyes with some work related stuff. I will try and make a contribution at some point next week.
I have always been sceptical about the “fellow travellers” argument.
The various Christian recruiting organisations do not generally make a beeline to the other Christian sects, they look more at other faiths and the non-believers. They have been in the game for nearly 1,900 years more than we have, perhaps they’ve picked up a few tricks.
A further complication was Kruschev’s redrawing of the boundary of the Russian SSR and the Ukrainian SSR. The Crimea and much of the Donbass area had been in the Russian SSR, Krushchev apparently redrew the boundaries to hobble Ukrainian nationalism within the USSR. Still don’t think the current Russian government have any wish to create an on going insurgency crisis by trying to take full control of the whole Ukranian state. They may wish to solidify their games so far and add a further hinterland in the east of the current Ukraine to join up Russia with the Crimea (and more importantly the mineral wealth of that area).
Perhaps the US Lawmakers should also examine their own backyard.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/23/prisoner-speak-out-american-slave-labor-strike
Part of the difficulty with estimating military prowess is the way in which military power is measured in spending. I used to live next door to guy who worked for the MOD as part of precurement. What he used to say is that in the UK due to the system that is used in the UK and even more so in USA the process is filled with cronyism, bribery and mismanagement.
Because of this the the price paid and budget of these governments cannot be compared with the costs of other nations such as China and the Russia.
For example the estimated costs of Main battle tanks range from, ZTZ -99 Chinese $2.5m, T-90AM (Russia) – $4.25 million, The Abrams M1 (USA) – $8.5 million, The Challenger 2 (Great Britain) – $8.6 million and the French AMX-56 Leclerc comes in at about $12.6 million. (not that I am in the market to buy one, the insurance is too much)
I might be that if push comes to shove between Russia and Nato, numbers and simplicity may overcome over engineered and over technologically developed hardware, as the Germans found out in WW2, when the Tiger and Panther tanks were overwhelmed by high numbers of T34s and Shermans.
I always thought that being humourous WAS a way of raising my social status (the topic of discussion). However to be fair to MC my family and loved ones HAVE always WARNED ME that it wasn’t big and wasn’t clever, a bit like swearing and farting. (Where we still diverge)
In childhood it definitely provided a degree of protection from the myriad of psychopaths and general “heed the balls” that inhabited my particular part of working class culture.
And I would hope, actually insist, that taking the piss is a prerequisite of any socialist society.
A point that I am certain that my antagonist/partner in crime, L Bird would, possibly for once, support me!
“As for the complexity of debating politics and philosophy, though, mate, you’re clearly in the right party!”
I didn’t realise it was a party, I thought it was a work event. Nobody warned me that the SPGB was a Party. I have therefore informed Her Majesty the Queen that I was a member of the Socialist Party during the Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral. I only went to Head Office for 25 minutes.
LB (much as I love you and your cookie ideas dearly) – Having spent many years of fruitless attempts to engage with you about your frankly bizarre ideas regarding the requirement of holding plebiscites about scientific theory, claims that you can provide no evidence of any living person supporting, ideas which you have provided no supporting evidence or citable quotations from any noted political source to back up your proposed system of universal plebiscites, claims that are based purely based on your self assertion that Marx thought this, or Marx said the other, I have given up any attempt to engage you in any rational or productive debate.
We now have the spectacle of another interesting debate about the nature of status within a Socialist Society sidelined by your personal hobby horse.
No doubt you will counter any views or arguments other than those with telling those who disagree with you that they “talk to rocks”. You refuse to answer any of the obvious flaws in your proposals such as:
“considering the enormous number of scientific theory how could resources be allocated to carry out the necessary number of plebiscites required”
“even if the plebiscites were held, what would happen to those of us who think that alternative theories are more plausible that than the ones receiving the majority vote”
“If a scientific orthodoxy (voted on by a plebiscite) turns out to be incorrect, what is the process for changing that orthodoxy?”Your only response is to state that anyone who asks these questions doesn’t understand Marx.
That is not a process of debate, that is you stating the same thing over and over again, a dictatorship of one.
Anyone who doesn’t indulge you with discussion of your impractical, unsupported and idiosyncratic notions, is dismissed as being either a Leninist, a crass idealist or uneducated.
Fortunately for you, it appears that you believe that reality exists only within the confines of your own furtive imaginings. Therefore as I don’t materially exist, you don’t need to worry. Clearly I am a figment of your oppressed consciousness.
As I have stated in the past, no doubt we would get along like a house on fire if we were having a couple of pints together and shooting the breeze and I wish you no ill. Sadly, however, your debating style of ignoring the questions asked about your views leaves with me no other option than use my default option of taking the piss, so taking the piss I have and taking the piss I will continue.
