Bijou Drains
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The Times is reporting that Russia has stated that it would end the war on condition that the Crimea was recognised as Russian, the two de facto republics are recognised and that The Ukraine doesn’t join NATO or EU.
In effect that is recognition of the existing arrangement as being de jure.
Perhaps an end is in sight, depending on whether the West are willing to let Putin save faceWelcome to Roberto, we agree not a drop of working class blood is worth supporting either side of this war for control of markets, resources and influence. I hope you have had time to read through the information on our website and if you agree with our views, we would love to welcome you to our movement. Our Sister Party The WOrld Socialist Party (US) has the following website http://www.wspus.org/
Yours for Socialism
TimFrom a Tory perspective they must think that they have their third eleven out on the pitch.
The 1st eleven being Cameron and his cronies, the 2nd eleven was May and her lot and all they’ve got to put on the pitch are the political equivalent of three asthmatics, four fat kids, two kids with heart trouble and a couple of volunteers from the chess club. Still they can still outsmart Starmer and his mob.
Report from Katya Adler re the EU on BBC website
She says:
“The violence on the ground in Ukraine and the fact that the EU sees Vladimir Putin’s actions as an attack on wider European stability and security has focused minds in the EU.
It’s working in a much faster, more united way than we normally ever see.
The EU today announced for the first time that it would be purchasing weapons and delivering them to a country in conflict, Ukraine.
The words “unprecedented” and “watershed moment” are something you’re hearing a lot in Brussels at the moment, but it’s actually relevant.
Over the weekend, Germany really made the headlines across all of Europe by turning its modern day defence policy completely on its head.
It is traditionally very weary of getting involved in military conflict because of its history in World War Two.
Now it’s saying that it will be sending weapons directly to Ukraine and it will be massively investing in its own military, which will come as a relief to Nato allies.”
Is that a sign of NATO/EU’s worries? My take is that NATO is that has come to the conclusion that Russia’s military might has been exposed as being less frightening than it appeared to be and that they are taking the view that it is time to make hay when the sun is shining. The worry is that they push Putin into a corner.
It goes without saying that the working class have no dog in any of these fights.
AJ – my point is to say that our position has been historically consistant. Not many political parties are happy to say they supported the 1914-18 slaughter (especially the Labour Party), but they did then, and they are serving up the same jingoistic nonsense today that they did then.
Very interesting article from Counterfire where they interview Boris Kagarlitsky (John Rees and Lindsey German’s left wing vanity project) written in 2014 about the Euromaidan protests and their development. There is a lot of typcial bolshevik inspired hot air, but some good factual information, etc.
The Party should make use of the historic position on capitalist war by puplishing the 1914 statement of the Party.
THE SOCIALIST PARTY of Great Britain seizes the opportunity to re-affirming the Socialist position, which is as follows:
That Society as at present constituted is based upon the ownership of the means of living by the capitalist or master class, and the consequent enslavement of the working class, by whose labour alone wealth is produced.
That in Society, therefore, there is an antagonism of interests, manifesting itself as a CLASS WAR, between those who possess but do not produce and those who produce but do not possess.
That the machinery of government, including the armed forces of the nation, exist only to conserve the monopoly by the capitalist class of the wealth taken from the workers.
These armed forces, therefore, will only be set in motion to further the interests of the class who control them – the master class – and as the workers’ interests are not bound up in the struggle for markets wherein their masters may dispose of the wealth they have stolen from them (the workers), but in the struggle to end the system under which they are robbed, they are not concerned with the present European struggle, which is already known as the “BUSINESS” war, for it is their masters’ interests which are involved and not their own.
THE SOCIALIST PARTY of Great Britain, pledges itself to keep the issue clear by expounding the CLASS STRUGGLE, and whilst placing on record its abhorrence of the latest manifestation of the callous, sordid, and mercenary nature of the international capitalist class, and declaring no interests are at stake justifying the shedding of a single drop of working class blood, enters its emphatic protest against the brutal and bloody butchery of our brothers of this and other lands who are being used as food for cannon abroad while suffering and starvation are the lot of their fellows at home. Having no quarrel with the working class of any country, we extend to our fellow workers of all lands the expression of our goodwill and Socialist fraternity, and pledge ourselves to work for the overthrow of capitalism and the triumph of Socialism.
THE WORLD FOR THE WORKERS
August 25th, 1914
The Executive CommitteeI also think the EC should re approve the same statement.
MS – “pretty soon they are going to ask for the closing of Russian Orthodox churches”
Either that or they will have cut a deal with the local franchise of Religion Inc (copyright Lenny Bruce) so that they bless the war and tell them that god is on their side.
Bloody typical isn’t it. Just as Newcastle look like building a decent team, the world gets destroyed in a nuclear Holocaust!
I had hoped the team would be in European action soon, but not this way!
Re the nuclear threat, my take is that it might be that Putin thinks he might have pissed on his chips.
Evidenced by what we read from the media (with all of the caveats that must include) some of the thoughts I have come to include:
Reports of 1/2 of troop numbers being engaged does not imply that that the Russians are holding back, only having 1/2 forces is logical for any military strategist, it is necessary to have strategic reserves, giving flexibility if necessary and it also allows you to supplement logistics.
From a military point of view it might also be that Russia has been relying on its ferocious reputation from WW2 for a little too long. If Ukraine can hold off 1/4 of Russia’s standing army without the nuclear threat, then from a conventional army point of view it may be that is some ways Russia appear to be a bit of a busted flush. If they are struggling with that, then taking on Poland, the Baltic nations, Rumania, Hungary, etc. would be well beyond their grasp.
In terms of the technology of war, there is always a little bit of guesswork of what works and what doesn’t and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Although Ukraine has a large amount of ageing Soviet/Russian armaments, it has some of its own designed armoured personnel carriers and it has large numbers of Western designed anti tank and anti aircraft systems. It might be that the some of the Russian systems are not as robust as were first thought, certainly there have been many reports of aircraft being downed and tanks being destroyed, which seems to indicate that these systems are more effective than the Russians thought.
Again this may be conjecture, but the seeing increase in the degree of confidence that NATO members may be showing (agreeing to more arms, the Germans signing off deployment of weapons, etc) might be a result of better than expected performance from the Ukrainian side and the threat of going nuclear may be because the Russians (or really Putin and his mates) think that their forces have achieved less than what they think they should have done.
How far the impact of all of this has on Putin is debatable though. He appears to have more control of the state machine and more control of the political system than anyone since Stalin.
I have been rereading Michael Voslensky’s Nomiklatura, which discussed the appointment of Stalin’s successors and his take was that the cabal at the top of the Soviet Communist Party deliberately appointed nonentities, who could be removed by his rivals as necessary. Putin doesn’t appear to have any rivals and as such so getting rid of him might not be as easy.
AC “as the average Brit blames foreigners for everything anyway.”
I think that is grossly unfair and a gross exaggeration, the majority of the people I meet in various people do not react in that way at all. The gobshites, the ones who hog the media and the social media may respond that way, however most of the people in workplaces and boozers that I meet have a pretty jaundiced view of what is going on in Eastern Europe.
The press would like us to think that Johnson has a whopping majority, whereas he in fact only has a plurality, he got 43.6% of votes on a 67.3% turnout. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Little England movement.
Similarly the Brexit vote was 51.89% of 72.21% turnout. Given that a large proportion of vote leave were not blaming foreigners but tangled up in a variety of different viewpoints, it would be pretty hard to justify a view that average Brit is xenophobic.
The level of political sophistication in the world is much higher than we give people credit.
Seems to me like the most likely outcome, the effective annexation of the Eastern region of Ukraine and keeping them as a buffer state against EU and Nato. I think the regime change attempt in Belarus was maybe the final straw of the West power play. Next stage in the great game would be Putin putting pressure on other areas of conflict. Perhaps Georgia, Bosnia and or Syria.
I think the survival of the Assad regime has emboldened the Russian Capitalist class, however any talk of being a new cold war ignores the fact that in the original cold war the USSR had client states all over Africa, Central America, Asia, etc.
Finance will win out, Russia is a busted flush with the advent of non fossil fuel economy. The Russian state (effectively the fossil fuel oligarchies) are making a play whilst their stock is high, give it a five years and the falling impact of mineral wealth will reduce the military might of Russia. At the end of the day military spending is reliant on tax, which is a levy on capital. The Capitalist class in Russia will squeal about having to have a high tax economy when there is high levels of military and state security spending.
I don’t expect that it will lead to a widespread European war. The Minsk protocols stated that the Eastern states had an effective veto on Ukraine joining Nato and or EU. The fact that Putin has renounced the veto may be an indicator that he knows that he has not got the power to stop the Ukraine joining the EU and then Nato.
Needless to say no drop of Working Class blood should be shed in supporting either side of this Capitalist conflict and no doubt there will be division between the Trots, Tankies and various neo Bolsheviks which way to jump.
Good job the clueless rank and file Trots, Tankies and neo Bolsheviks have got leaders to tell them which section of the capitalist clas to support otherwise they’d be wetting their pants not knowing how to think!
BBC Lunch time news seems to be winding down the rhetoric, saying some form of negotiations will take place when the Russian manoeuvres are over, perhaps their good friends at Vauxhall Cross have tipped them the wink?
The majority of people I meet in pubs have very little interest in the situation in the Ukraine, most are more interested in the price of a pint and the ongoing drama of Newcastle United FC.
The only comments I have heard about it in pubs was two people of my generation saying they don’t want their grand kids to have to go and take part in a war, and a general feeling that Johnson is using it to distract people from Partygate
