January 31, 2021 at 11:41 pm #213305
I know it is wrong but i can’t help but feel a touch of schadenfreude that Aung Sang Suu Kyi has been arrested by the Myanmar military.
No doubt she will once more become the darling of the liberals and all her crimes against the Rohingya forgotten.February 2, 2021 at 1:05 am #213370
A survey of the media reveals that the common interpretation is that the military in Myanmar has seized power.
We said they never lost it in the first place.
The fact is that the military of Burma (these days also called Myanmar) have not yielded political power to the will of the people.
And our blog on the recent electionFebruary 2, 2021 at 1:57 am #213374
I can’t see any serious military threat so was the military coup a business board-room decision? I can’t tell.
February 2, 2021 at 2:07 am #213376
- This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by alanjjohnstone.
“The military was already in power – even the ruling NLD was covering up their [alleged genocide] in the ICJ [international court of justice],” said Thinzar Shunlei Yi, a human rights activist based in Yangon. The facade of democracy in Myanmar had now crumbled, she said. “It’s not real, it’s not genuine, we’re not going anywhere with this framework.”February 2, 2021 at 2:58 am #213377
Our blog post for any who wish to use it on their social mediaFebruary 2, 2021 at 7:54 am #213378robbo203Participant
Shared, AlanFebruary 2, 2021 at 7:19 pm #213402
And standing on the side-lines, ready to take advantage of any economic sanctions imposed by the West – ChinaFebruary 2, 2021 at 10:11 pm #213406robbo203Participant
Dunno if there is anything in this but someone on one of the FB groups I am on suggested China might have been a player in the background as far as the coup was concerned. Anyone heard anything about this or is it just more fake news?February 3, 2021 at 3:28 am #213417
The UN Security Council has not condemned it mainly due to the Chinese.
China has not condemned the coup, while state media characterised Monday’s events as a “cabinet reshuffle”. China, with Russia’s backing, shielded Myanmar from any significant council action after a brutal military crackdown in Rakhine StateFebruary 4, 2021 at 3:47 am #213468
Further to your query on Chinese involvement, Robbo, this offers a bit of scepticism of that scenario
…It was partly a backlash against China’s growing dominance of Myanmar’s economy a decade ago that led the previous junta to shift toward democratic reforms…Suu Kyi has shifted closer to Beijing in the past few years as she defended the military against condemnation of atrocities against Myanmar’s Rohingya minority. That may have deepened military leaders’ distrust…
But the article doesn’t exclude the possibility entirely. Some have speculated that Beijing might have given a covert nod to the generals.
“China will have greater leverage to pull Myanmar further into the orbit of its own plans for economic development,” said John G. Dale, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia.
But while the coup may lead Myanmar’s leaders to lean more heavily on support from China, supplier of most of their weapons and one of the country’s biggest sources of foreign investment, researcher Zhao Gancheng at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, says it was an unwelcome disruption. “As a neighboring country, I can’t see anything good for China, given that all of China’s investments and infrastructure construction need a stable environment,” Zhao said. “China is concerned about this development,” he said.
“China has strategic, vested interests in keeping Myanmar as stable as they possibly can,” said Chris Ankersen, a professor at the NYU School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs.
Champa Patel, director of the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House in London said in an emailed statement. “Their insecurity has deepened as (Suu Kyi) consolidated her power within the country and deepened ties with countries such as China…the military has at times sought to counter growing Chinese influence over the economy, showing “a more independent streak that sought to balance against Chinese influence,” said PatelFebruary 8, 2021 at 7:18 am #213658
Having experienced a number of years of limited liberty, the people of Myanmar are not going to passively submit to the return of the army dictatorship.
Public protests have been daily and growing despite the great risk to the demonstrators from a ruthless and brutal military.February 9, 2021 at 2:21 am #213686
The International Trade Union Confederation and trade unions around the world are planning solidarity actions at 20:00 Myanmar time, 11 February, to coincide with the daily ‘noise barrage’ (honking car horns and banging of pots and pans) of people in Myanmar.
“We stand in solidarity with Myanmar’s workers and with the people of Myanmar and pay tribute to those brave, working people taking action to reject the military takeover”February 9, 2021 at 7:58 am #213691ALBKeymaster
On the face of it the situation is similar to what some imagine will happen if there is a socialist election victory — those in control of state power won’t accept it.
Elections there did give one party an overwhelming electoral victory which the rulers are trying to negate — interestingly from one point of view as they too are appealing to democracy to give some legitimacy to what they have done.
Our answer to this hypothesis has been that if there is a majority for socialism they will win one way or another sooner or later. The immediate reaction could be a general strike and mass demonstrations and civil disobedience as well as refusals in the armed forces and police to obey the government. In fact without this last the ruling clique is likely to win, temporarily. Which is what may happen in Burma. But in the longer term they will have to bow to the popular will. We will have to see what happens as nothing can be predicted. The next move is up to the coup leaders.
Incidentally I defend the use of the name Burma (and Rangoon) on the grounds that we don’t need to pander to the nationalism of the current ruling group. Even the Wikipedia entry says:
“In 1989, the military government officially changed the English translations of many names dating back to Burma’s colonial period or earlier, including that of the country itself: Burma became Myanmar. The renaming remains a contested issue. Many political and ethnic opposition groups and countries continue to use Burma because they do not recognise the legitimacy of the ruling military government or its authority to rename the country.”February 9, 2021 at 10:53 am #213702WezParticipant
‘But in the longer term they will have to bow to the popular will. We will have to see what happens as nothing can be predicted.’
ALB – having made a prediction in the first sentence you deny the efficacy of doing so in the second sentence. Which is it?February 9, 2021 at 11:45 am #213711ALBKeymaster
Not really. The first sentence was a description of what is happening now, i.e. strikes and street demonstractions. The second sentence was saying we can’t predict what will happen next. The military might back down or they might crack down. It’s up to them.
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