Young Master Smeet
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In the light of the Bucha atrocities the claim is arising that Russia has openly genocidal aims (note, Russia has been claiming a potential genocide against Russian Ukrainians, it seems to be a standard claim these days in which all actions are justified against the supreme crime.)
People are pointing to an op-ed in a Russian state backed paper:
Translation here : of course, in war, a jingo can always be found, and this could just be sabre rattling by the regime, depending on whether more sensible heads might prevail (certainly, I don’t think the programme presented is remotely realistic, it’s a recipe for perpetual guerrilla war – then again, I didn’t think invasion was realistic, so what do I know).“The duration of denazification can in no way be less than one generation, which must be born, grow up and reach maturity under the conditions of denazification. The nazification of Ukraine continued for more than 30 years, beginning at least in 1989, when Ukrainian nationalism received legal and legitimate forms of political expression and led the movement for “independence” towards Nazism.”
“The name “Ukraine” apparently cannot be retained as the title of any fully denazified state entity in a territory liberated from the Nazi regime. The people’s republics newly created in the space free from Nazism should and will grow on the basis of economic self-government and social security, restoration and modernization of the life support systems of the population.”
“— lustration, publication of the names of accomplices of the Nazi regime, involving them in forced labor to restore the destroyed infrastructure as punishment for Nazi activities (from among those who will not be subject to the death penalty or imprisonment);
— adoption at the local level, under the supervision of Russia, of primary normative acts of denazification “from below”, a ban on all types and forms of the revival of Nazi ideology;
— Establishment of memorials, commemorative signs, monuments to the victims of Ukrainian Nazism, perpetuating the memory of the heroes of the struggle against it;
— the inclusion of a complex of anti-fascist and denazification norms in the constitutions of the new people’s republics;
— creation of permanent denazification bodies for a period of 25 years.”<ahref=”https://www.rt.com/business/553099-gold-backed-ruble-gamechanger-west/”> Russia pegging the Ruble to gold
So, this is the economic front of the war:”By offering to buy gold from Russian banks at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles per gram, the Bank of Russia has both linked the ruble to gold and, since gold trades in US dollars, set a floor price for the ruble in terms of the US dollar.”
“The fixed peg between the ruble and gold puts a floor on the RUB/USD rate but also a quasi-floor on the US dollar gold price. But beyond this, the linking of gold to energy payments is the main event. While increased demand for rubles should continue to strengthen the RUB/USD rate and show up as a higher gold price, due to the fixed ruble – gold linkage, if Russia begins to accept gold directly as a payment for oil, then this would be a new paradigm shift for the gold price as it would link the oil price directly to the gold price. ”
We know Russia has been stockpiling gold for such a situation, so this move makes sense: of course, Russia will have to watch its balance of gold net transactions, but as an exporter country, that shouldn’t be a problem short term. Of course, also, appreciating gold values would mean domestic inflation.
Couple of articles: Russian treatment of evacuated Ukrainians
An interesting first hand account of a Mariupol resident: filtered and questioned (which is standard urban warfare/counter insurgency practice) and then she managed to reach family in Russia: “When we were on the Rostov-to-Moscow train, it was such a strange feeling to hear everyone discussing Mariupol. People on the train were claiming that, in Mariupol, biological weapons were being developed [by the West] to destroy the reproductive systems of Russian women. It felt like a kind of collective dream. Before the war, I really had believed that Russians were not the same as Putin. I was sure that no one wanted war with Ukraine. Now I think that even sensible people in Russian society are a part of this and are also responsible for it.”
And then this from Paul Rogers:”The appalling Russian bombardment of Ukrainian towns and cities is broadcast to Western audiences thanks to near-24/7 coverage in the Western media. What is not realised by many of these audiences, is that this kind of coverage was also available, around the clock, during the Iraq War. Channels such as Al-Jazeera gave full accounts, including graphic images, of the injuries and deaths caused by Western forces, much of which was withheld on Western channels.
In short, there is rightly much anger across the West at what Putin’s forces have been doing and will continue to do in Ukraine. Many people living outside Western states are also appalled but, for them, what Russia is doing is not desperately different from what has been done by US-led coalitions in wars in South Asia, North Africa and especially the Middle East. If people are at a loss to understand why much of the world is not more forthright in its condemnation of Russia, that is where to look.”
Ukrainian pacifists
“On February 7, Kotsaba was detained, charged with “high treason” and “obstructing the lawful activities of the Ukrainian military.” He spent 16 months in appalling pre-trial conditions, during which Amnesty International named him their first prisoner-of-conscience in Ukraine since the Revolution, decrying his “treatment” as “a brazen restriction on the right to freedom of expression…one of the fundamental rallying cries of the [2014] protestors.””“As he says, this is a war pitting white supremacists against each other — the Azov Brigade, for example, versus the notorious Russian-funded Wagner Group — and while the spectacle of mutual neo-Nazi slaughter might say something about their strategic acumen, the bigger issue is the damage such a ‘brilliant green light’ for violence may wreak, however the war officially ‘ends,’ on an already deeply-damaged nation. As early as February 27, in an article for World Beyond War, Sheliazhenko was witnessing scenes bordering on social psychosis:”
Peace in our time, or peace off?
“A Ukrainian negotiator said the country is seeking international security guarantees for territory that doesn’t include the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and Crimea.”So, assuming Russia has been seeking partition of Ukraine all along, as well as ensuring no NATO membership (but apparently fine with EU membership) this nightmare could soon be over. Germany would be happy with that deal, if EU can get the grain lands, Russia gets the minerals of Donbas.
On that theme:
This Twitter Thread from Iraq Body Count
Reminds us of how many civilians died during operation Shock and Awe during the Invasion of Iraq:“The rate at which civilians were killed by invading US-led forces in the 21 days from 20 March–9 April (invasion to “fall of Baghdad”) was 315 per day – so high compared to the following 2-year period it could not fit on the same intensity graph:”
(I honestly can’t recall talk about civilian casualties at the time, there might have been mention, but it just goes to show the power of the doctrine of worthy and unworthy victims and the way the press can pull focus).
I doubt it’s that far from the carnage Russia is inflicting on Ukraine.
No-one would disagree that in the drunkard scenario, if you believe your life to be in jeopardy, you may use the necessary force – up to and including slaying the aggressor – to defend it.
Likewise, whilst we believe we have a route to peaceful socialism, should a recalcitrant minority try to prevent us, we shall use the minimum necessary force to defend ourselves, just as existing social structures would do for enforcing their rules over parking fines.
As wars between states are antithetical to the interests of the working class – destroying lives and livelihoods, we argue that workers should act in such a way as to end the inter state conflict. We take the same approach to wars between mafia gangs.
“YMS, as our war games expert, does this make sense as a strategy? It does seem to be that that is their strategy, cynical and a mug’s game for those called upon to die for the Ukrainian state as it is.”
It’s pretty much the strategy in Palestine, and in any asymmetric war (and it is kind of the foundational principle of guerrilla war, keep the enemy engaged until a real army arrives).
As a minimal, and rational strategy, making the cost of Russian victory as high as possible makes sense. The problem is, I think the Kremlin is prepared to pay a high price: I didn’t think they’d start the war, since Ukraine has a sizeable modern army, losses would be inevitably heavy.
The Pentagon is quoting about 10% losses for Russia, which is about par for a modern full-on war (Iraq was preceded by ten years of siege to avoid that sort of level of casualties). Even if that sort of death rate continues, even if Ukrainians are killing more Russians than they lose, Ukraine will eventually fall to attrition: possibly Russia might back off due to the sanctions, but I suspect not, and full mobilisation might occur.
Alan,
indeed, however, the wargamers seem to have called it.Alan,
according to this guy, it looks like the Russians are probably on schedule:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5BAZ2bBUzMThey’ve got to slow down due to logistics, also, the Ukrainians have flooded the land round Kyiv, which means mud stops the Russians going off road.
Socialist Alternative (In Russia)
Translate gives:“Well, morning everyone. There is so little good in it. Propaganda media – TASS, Interfax and RIA Novosti – at the same time issued news that work was allegedly being carried out in Ukraine to create nuclear weapons. And that is why Putin is bombing Ukrainian cities. More and more new tales come up with state propaganda, otherwise why didn’t Yanukovych, with whom Putin is friends, stop all this and didn’t tell earlier?
“Meanwhile, anti-war actions have begun in the Far East, which are dispersed by the police. More than 60 people were detained in Vladivostok and Irkutsk, and at least 70 in Novosibirsk.”
If True, the Kremlin is scraping the propaganda barrel.
The same outfit also published this discussion on the operation of the new laws on speech restrictions, short version, it’s impermissible to call for troops out or sanctions and to *knowingly* spread false rumours – I expect, though, even if the process remains remotely fair on that one, the process will become the punishment, and people will be detained while cases are heard.
I’m getting these things via:
Edmund Griffiths who’s spoken with us a few times.“The WSM blog
https://www.worldsocialism.org/wsm/2022/02/26/no-war-between-peoples-no-peace-between-classes/”
Surely Zelenskyy not Zelenko?
Statement of the Confederation of Revolutionary Anarcho-Syndicalists
“The first shot was fired by the stronger, predatory and arrogant of the bandits – the Kremlin. But, as always happens in imperialist conflicts, behind the immediate cause lies a whole tangle of disgustingly stinking reasons: this is the international struggle for gas markets, and the desire of the authorities of all countries to divert the attention of the population from the tyranny of “sanitary” dictatorships, and the struggle of the ruling classes of the countries of the former Soviet Union for the division and redistribution of the “post-Soviet space”, and larger-scale and global contradictions, and the struggle for world domination between NATO, led by the USA and China, challenging the old hegemon and fastening its “little brother” in the Kremlin to its chariot. Today these contradictions give rise to local wars. Tomorrow they threaten to turn into a Third World Imperialist War.”
Statement of the Revolutionary Workers Party
in Russian: can’t vouch for the bona fides of the group, but still interesting to get a purportedly dissident voice from within the Russia milieu, as it were.
Google translate is at least intelligible, but I, obviously, can’t vouch for accuracy.
“No considerations of “containment of NATO”, no criticism of the Ukrainian political regime and other geopolitical nonsense can justify this massacre! Putin talks about the “anti-people junta” and about the fact that the Russian army is allegedly trying to liberate Ukraine from the “Nazis”. But the Russian regime is no better than the regime in Ukraine. And the only one who has the right to liberate Ukraine from the ultra-liberal nationalist dictatorship is the Ukrainian proletariat, and not Russian imperialism! There is nothing fair in this war. There are only imperialist interests of the bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation and dirty haggling with the US and EU bourgeoisie. And in the name of realizing these interests, which are purely alien to the working class, the blood of the workers of Ukraine and Donbass, the soldiers of Russia, the sons of the working class, is now shed.”
Convinced that Nato will never reject Ukraine’s membership, Putin has now taken his own steps to block it. By invading Donetsk and Luhansk, he has created a “frozen conflict”, knowing the alliance cannot admit countries that don’t control all their borders. Frozen conflicts already cripple Georgia and Moldova, which are also split by pro-Russian statelets. Now Ukraine joins the list. There is speculation about what will happen next but from his standpoint, it is not actually necessary to send troops further into the country. He has already taken what he needs.
