robbo203
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Latest figures today from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
72,550 (93%)
Recovered / Discharged5,438 (7%)
DeathsThe real death rate is undoubtedly much lower because the real number of cases is undoubtedly much high than the official or confirmed cases. In the UK confirmed cases to date is 798 with 11 confirmed deaths but the real number of people infected is estimated to be between 5000 and 10,000, mostly asymptotic or with mild symptoms
Its getting a lot worse in Europe – and so suddenly! Be prepared. We are at the start of a very bumpy journey in the weeks and months ahead
I think it would be a good idea to postpone conference under the circumstances or at least investigate the possibility of a live video conference. This should be the number 1 item for discussion at the next EC meeting and we need to act quickly as things are only going to get worse. Much worse.
The entire membership needs to be contacted on individual basis and informed of the situation and asked to give their opinion (and at the same time be encouraged to join SPINTCOM, SPOPEN and this forum)
We need to establish a centralised decision-making procedure along the lines of what WSPUS has successfully done as a way of countering the isolation of scattered members – bad enough at the best of times and now threatening to become much worse with the onset of this pandemic.
In Spain we are a little ahead of the UK in terms of the severity of measures adopted such as regional lockdowns e.g. in Catalunya introduced just yesterday . In other words no traffic in or out of the region except essentials. No trains, no cars, no flights , no buses. This is only the start. The same is going to happen in the UK and because the UK is much more densely populated the lockdowns will affect much small areas in all probability. Branch meetings, public meetings and the like will in time become all but impossible
We have to adapt as a matter or urgency – NOW
A doctor on what to expect in the coming days and weeks
It relies on the idea that millions will get the virus and develop immunity to future outbreaks. This itself is reliant on the idea that there will be no mutations
Bijou I believe there have been cases of repeat infections in China which suggests that the virus is mutating and that there are already several strains kicking around
Do we credit the precautions that governments have taken or do we view the virus as mostly non-fatal?
I dont think there is any doubt that the virus will be overwhelming non fatal, Alan, but the death toll even with a mortality rate of 1% or slightly less will still be catastrophic. There is also the risk that a more lethal strain will emerge.
What puzzles me is the high degree of variability in mortality rates between countries. Italy, for example, according to this site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
has at the this point in time 17,660 total cases and 1266 total deaths. Unless my arithemetic is wrong that works out at a mortaility rate of just over 7 percent! That’s astounding. If the virus is likely to affect 50-70 percent of the global population as epidemiologists predict then, with this mortality rate, that means a death toll of hundreds of millions!
Germany by contrast has 3481 total cases and only 8 total deaths. Very odd. Of course these are just officially registered cases as many people carrying the virus are only mildly affected and probably dont realise they have the virus. According to one estimate there are already about 10.000 cases in the UK alone, mostly unoffocial
Robbo, perhaps the reason is that the virus doesn’t respect wealth and the 1% are as likely to catch it as us proles.
There may be something in this Alan but is this not also true of the flu which in absolute terms kills off far more people? Yet the official response to the regular culling of the old and the fragile – rich and poor alike – has been far more muted. No lockdowns or cancelled flights or stock exchange crashes in that case
I think the main driver behind the panic is the fact that the coronavirus is
- So easily transmittable unlike MERS or SARs which are far deadlier but affected far fewer people . Models I have come acorss suggest that in time, 50-70 % of the global population could succumb
- The mortality is significantly above that of flu. Granted the 3.4% mortality suggested by WHO may well be an gross overestimate because it discounts lots of people whose symptoms are mild and who have not bothered to present themselves to the medical authorities (the same would be true of flu), even it is only 1%, if you combine that with the ease of transmission, you have quite an alarming picture – 1% of half the world’s population is a lot of dead people!
I notice incidentally that the article from the ICT you posted states that: “Italy has currently one of the worst death rates from coronavirus (4%), higher even than China’s. This despite locking down over a dozen towns”. Perhaps, the variability of the death rate is additional factor causing concern
Here in Spain the number of cases at the time of writing is 2277 with 55 deaths. Spain has overtaken Germany which has 1966 cases with 3 deaths. Why the stark difference? Spain has a relatively good health service – some would say better than the UK’s NHS – and longevity is higher in Spain than in Germany. Maybe that’s part of the reason – we’ve got more old folk here cos we tend to live longer in Spain with all that Mediterranean food and oodles of sunshine which you poor buggers in Northern Europe are sorely missing
Robbo, George Galloway had a health expert on his show and it appears the earlier estimates about the mortality rate was based on statistics partly determined in China when there was a lack of knowledge on the care and treatment of those with Covid-19. However, later analyses of when they had better understanding shows that the mortality rate although still high was more in the region of 0.7 – 0.8%
Not according to this, Alan
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Also, if there is really no need for concern, why the concern? I mean its not exactly in the interest of business-as-usual to promote a panic on this scale, is it? We have seen significant falls in shares in stock markets round the world, lockdowns in Italy and elsewhere, all sorts of events cancelled and public transport affected.
Is this all just a conspiracy by toilet roll and hand gel manufacturers? Or maybe Big Pharma hoping to cash in on the corona virus crisis? Hmmmmmm
Worst case scenario for the US
96 million infected, 500.000 dead
Just a clarification on the mortality rate of coronavirus…
“3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]Initial estimate was 2%
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that t:
We don’t know how many were infected (“When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don’t know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that.”[1][2]).
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization”https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
If a 3.4% mortality rate was applied uniformly to the current world population of 7 billion this would result in a death toll of nearly 240 million, about 5 times the size of the toll from the influenza pandemic of 1918. Of course that is making all sorts of assumptions that may not hold
With a survival rate of 98% there is no cause for alarmism. Those dying are the same people who get serious complications from ordinary flu.
This is true enough Alan (although I believe the survival rate is slightly lower than this in actuality – more like 96.5% according to more recent data). However, what is most concerning is the response to the spread of the Coronavirus and its manifold social and economic repercussions, rather than the number of deaths it causes . The 1918 flu pandemic claimed at least 50 million lives, or 2.5 per cent of the global population, according to current estimates; the coronavirus to date has claimed just under 4000 lives though this will change significantly over the coming weeks and months.
With just over 100,000 cases worldwide we have already seen quite drastic actions being taken by governments – the latest being the Italian government – clamping down on freedom of movement and assembly. Fear of the virus has caused a spike in incidence of racism domestically and calls for much stronger border controls
We are only at the start of something that is going to get much much worse in time. We can expect an almost exponential increase in the number of cases globally and we need to be prepared for what might well follow. Almost certainly its going exacerbate downward economic trends and trigger a global recession of huge proportions, in my view, surpassing that of 2008
For people here who want to keep track of this development can I recommend this website
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Coops and communes must be run as capitalist enterprises
Coops and communes are not the same thing, though.
Neither in themselves will deliver macro-change of the kind we are interested in but then who is expecting they might – except perhaps people like Wolff – but, all things being equal, I would prefer to work in coop under capitalism or live in a commune under capitalism than not and it s possible that the experience of doing so might actually assist the development of socialist consciousness in some way. There are hints in Marx that he thought this might be the case.
Whilst its not for us in the Socialist party to promote coops or communes neither should we try to discourage our fellow workers from doing so. Sometimes, unfortunately, that is the impression that seems to be conveyed…
Hopefully, the plans for Glasgow’s COP26 can be our springboard. But somehow, and I appreciate the problems and difficulties, it has to be more than one intensive weekend of activity.
What would you have in mind, Alan? Different kinds of activities before, during and after the COP26 event? I can think of several – a mass-postering campaign if this is still legal in the UK, a one day school during the event , leaflet distributions, literature stalls, hiring a van with a loudspeaker, a projector to project images on to buildings, becoming actively involved in the local social media build-up around this event etc etc. Can you think of any others?
Anyway I hope that the local branch will be doing all it can and that as many members and sympathisers as possible outside Glasgow come along to help. How are plans to arrange accommodation for outsiders proceeding?
Hopefully, the plans for Glasgow’s COP26 can be our springboard. But somehow, and I appreciate the problems and difficulties, it has to be more than one intensive weekend of activity.
What would you have in mind, Alan? Different kinds of activities before, during and after the COP26 event? I can think of several – a mass-postering campaign if this is still legal in the UK, a one day school during the event , leaflet distributions, literature stalls, hiring a van with a loudspeaker, a projector to project images on to buildings, becoming actively involved in the local social media build-up around this event etc etc. Can you think of any others?
Anyway I hope that the local branch will be doing all it can and that as many members and sympathisers as possible outside Glasgow come along to help. How are plans to arrange accommodation for outsiders proceeding?
If your predictions come true, Alan, the same question arises as in the case of Corbyn’s dejected followers – will defeat make them more susceptible to the socialist case, or less? Will they come round to thinking ‘we have got nothing to lose by stepping off the reformist treadmill and cutting our ties with the politics of capitalism since the establishment will always stitch things up in their favour in the end’ or will they become more determined than ever to shift capitalist politics in the direction of enlightened reformism?
