robbo203
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No, not yet. Just hit the ‘General Discussion‘ button to see the latest posts. There is no quick fix which doesn’t risk the whole forum crumbling.
OMG you wouldn’t want that to happen! What does the slow fix entail?
I just don’t believe the hysteria surrounding this Corona cult. Also I find it dubious that governments suddenly want to “Wrap Arms” around every worker.
In terms of mortality figures alone this whole con trick doesn’t make senseOzy
Look at it another way – if this is all a con trick why would the ruling class inflict such grievous damage on the economy for some unknown or vaguely defined objective? Why shoot themselves in the foot and incur astronomical losses in profits for the sake of achieving this supposed objective.? If anything doesn’t make sense it is that
The fact that celebrities , politicians and billionaires can succumb to the virus as easily as workers may be one reason for the scale of the official reaction. But more importantly, it may be because if governments are, as you say, suddenly wanting to “Wrap Arms” around every worker, it is because the material reality of the capitalist class’ total dependence on the workers gives them no other option but to do so. They need to protect the working class as the source of future profits. They dont want the geese that lays their golden eggs killed off in such large numbers
You refer to the mortality figures. Yes they are comparatively small compared to death toll resulting from flu. But you forget that it is early days yet. COVID-19 was only just discovered in December last year. The eventual death toll may well become much much higher than that of flu. Countries like China and South Korea have reduced the rate of increase in infections but ONLY because they have taken effective steps to limit the spread. In others by treating the virus as a serious threat.
The key variable is the mortality rate. There is no doubt that the mortality rate is significantly higher than flu. Granted it may not be as high as WHO originally thought – 3.4% – because quite a large number of people present only mild symptoms or are asymptomatic and may not realise they carry the virus. The best estimates to date for the proportion of asymptomatic carriers of the virus is about 50 percent of the people infected. But even allowing for this the mortality rate is still significant higher than flu and accordingly the eventual death toll could be much higher too.
Also, the virus has yet to make significant inroads in places like Africa. Though it is ironic that, to date, poor countries such as in Africa have fared comparatively better than rich countries – probably for reasons to do with mobility and relative isolation – this could change dramatically. I was looking at a programme on the situation in South Africa and the commentator made the point that given the extreme population density of the black townships outside cities like Cape Town, the virus, once it got a foothold , could spread like wildfire. Social distancing is almost impossible to effectively implement in these cramped circumstances.
Even in wealthier countries containment might become increasingly problematic beyond a certain tipping point if the number of cases grow to the point where they start to overwhelm the available resources. Furthermore the impact on the economy could be such that it begins to threaten basic supplies such as food and water causing people to take risks to secure these supplies (e,g panic buying in the shops and social protests on the street) and so risk spreading the virus further. It is a nightmarish prospect. China and South Korea have seemingly nipped this in the bud but we cannot be complacent about this. The vast majority of their populations have not been infected. Any relaxation of the measures they have adopted could precipitate a massive new wave of infections.
In the long run, only the development of a vaccine or a form of treatment using plasma can absolutely ensure the worst case scenario does not materialise. But a readily available vaccine is at least a year off from now even though human trials have already begun
Finally you mention Gordon Brown calling for a temporary Global Government. Brown is an idiot. There is no prospect of such a government being formed whatsoever. You only have to consider the deep animosities between leading capitalist powers like China and the US to see this. If anything globalisation has gone into reverse in recent years with the rise of populist nationalism. COVID-19 is accentuating this trend by closing borders.
There is of course the UN but the UN has always been a largely toothless tiger and a mere talking shop – not to say a front behind which the various rival capital powers pursue their own divergent interests. “World government” presupposes a degree of common interest which simply does not exist in reality
Oh dear the capitalists are suffering. Would a whip round be in order. comrades
Has anyone come across updated information on the mortality rate of the virus? I keep coming across conflicting information. So much depends on what proportion of the population infected are asymptomatic or only mildly affected. Many may not be aware they are infected and depending on how many that makes quite a big difference. To know how many requires large scale testing whereas I believe countries like the UK only test those who arrive at a hospital. South Korea is the outstanding example where there has been large scale testing and tracing contacts and this has helped quite a lot in reducing the rate of increase in infections
Half the population of the UK may already be infected according to this Oxford study. If true this could be significant: “If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment”
Mike
What plans do the EC have to try to encourage as many members as possible to participate in online activity? In the absence of face-to-face activity for the foreseeable future this has become crucial to the very survival , let alone future growth, of the Party
We need to develop a strategic plan as a matter of the utmost urgency
The Ten-Minutes-a-Month-for-Socialism Campaign (see below) is one small way in which we can all contribute but there are other ways too. Comrades need to start thinking about this and coming up with innovative ideas. I urge branch secretaries to initiate discussion on this matter within their branches.
Best Regards
http://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/search?q=ten+minutes
I hope all comrades in Wales and elsewhere will join in this activity since physical or face-to-face activity has been suspended. Spread the word
http://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/search?q=ten+minutes
Also sanctions in place against countries like Iran, Venezuela and Syria have not only weakened the general health of the people there but also the health service and access to medicines, drugs and medical equipment. It is therefore not surprising that Iran is being particularly hit by the virus.
It is ironic that America, the instigator of these sanctions, has now surged ahead of Iran in terms of the number of confirmed cases and is now third in the world behind China and Italy
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
“Confirmed cases” does not go anywhere near to reflecting the true extent of the infection because so many people who may have the virus may not have been tested . South Korea has probably got the most effective testing and tracking capacity of any country in the world. By contrast the US is very weak in this area and this combined with the unique deficiencies of the healthcare system there and the dithering bumbling and contradictory approach of the Trump regime is a recipe for disaster.
I have a hunch that the epicentre of the virus is soon going to move from Europe to America just as it earlier moved from China to Europe. In a month’s time the picture could be dramatically different.
Could America become the new epicentre of the virus?
On the Front Lines of the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Doctor’s View
Also this
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
Come on SPGB this is the best opportunity for years!
I agree wheatwa46ar – although organisationally it mught be a setback for the SPGB in terms of organising meetings , selling literature , holding summer schools etc. We can limit the damage in that regard by getting all members and sympathisers connected up via the internet for instance and by taking certain other measures.
However in terms of breaking the mould of politics. I think this pandemic is going to have a profound effect on the way people think about the world. In so many ways it makes the case for socialism so much more relevent and appealing
