Bijou Drains
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I did a bit of epidemiology as part of my Open University Studies and have been doing a bit of number crunching, based on stuff I did back then.
The difficulty with the data is general lack of reliability and also lack of testing. However there are a couple of exceptions that can be used to further extrapolate information. Firstly South Korea, which carried out large scale testing and appears to have been reporting honestly and secondly the figures from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship where there was full testing and long scale monitoring.
There are a couple of issues. The first is that the demographics of the passengers and crew on the cruise ship were not representative of general demographics (generally older, some with long term health problems, although I would guess less very chronic illnesses and also although the crew were young, there were very few children). The second issue is that of hidden or asymptomatic cases. In South Korea the % of the population tested being less than the whole, the asymptomatic might not have been tested.
The plus side (certainly in the UK) is that using South Korea as a model is probably ok, as the demographic structure is quite similar to the UK one, see links below:
https://www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/age_structure.html
https://www.indexmundi.com/south_korea/age_structure.html
So using the figures from the Diamond Princess, which were as follows:
Total tests – 4061
Total Positives – 705
Asymptomatic Positives – 392
Total deaths to date – 11
The numbers of deaths to cases in this instance is perhaps not as important because of the previously mentioned demographic anomalies for the cruise ship, the number of asymptomatic cases, however is. Because everyone on the ship was tested we know that as far as can be ascertained this is a pretty accurate reflection of the level of asymptomatic infection for those on the ship. You could argue that in a younger demographic, asymptomatic infection might be less, but it is unlikely to be more, so this gives us a rate of asymptomatic infection of roughly 4/7ths of cases or possibly more.
Going back to South Korea, we have the advantage in this case of having a demographic which is closer to that of the UK. In South Korea, the death rate has been at about 1.3%, because of the difficulty with regards to the possibility of asymptomatic cases which haven’t been identified, the death rate is probably less than this, however it would probably be okay to use this as a base line higher limit.
Using all of this to examine the UK, the statistics we have in the UK are probably very unreliable in terms of cases and asymptomatic cases, due to lack of testing, etc. However we can use the death rate as a reasonably reliable source of information, if we look at the death rate in the UK (there are a number of caveats here as we don’t know what numbers of those currently infected will die) but as an informed guestimate, if we have 759 deaths in the UK, with a death rate of roughly 1.3% (from South Korea), then an estimated 58,384 people could have the infection of which 4/7ths will be asymptomatic (33,363).
In terms of the future, viruses tend to become less fatal as they spread, effectively a virus which kills its host is less likely to spread than one that is less deadly and it will progressively become the dominant strain. Very deadly viruses tend to “burn out” very quickly and don’t spread as intensively because of this, so it is likely that the death rate will reduce as time goes by. Similarly, treatments and interventions (not necessarily cures) will likely reduce the death rate over time. We certainly won’t get worse at looking after victims, but shortage of equipment might mean that victims don’t get the most effective treatments. On that basis we can estimate that, with a bit of luck the death rate will fall to about 0.5% or thereabouts, over time.
If we go back to figures from the Diamond Princess, 4061 tests were carried out for 705 positives, that means that nearly 5/6 of those on the ship didn’t acquire the virus, or were able to fight it off without infection. In some cases there were couples who shared the same living space for up to two weeks where one caught the virus and the other didn’t. We can guess from this that there is some percentage of the population that will not succumb to the infection.
If we could put this at 2/3 of the population, as another guestimate, we can start to work out when/if herd immunity might kick in and how many maximum deaths we can expect.
UK total population is 67,786,872, if only 1/3 are susceptible then that gives us roughly 22.5 million possible victims. However as the number of immune and non susceptible people increases the spread of the virus becomes less common, as it cannot find a host to act as a breeding ground. Once we get past about 70% it should be about there, so that gives us 15, 750,000 infections, with a death rate (being positive) of around 0.5%, so roughly about 315,000 deaths. Hopefully social distancing and all the other measures taking place can bring this number down significantly
To be fair to David Icke though, if Michael Gove and his Daily Mail “journalist” wife, did in fact turn out to be flesh eating lizards, in human form, who would honestly be that surprised? To be honest if tests were done and they turned out to be human, I’d be more surprised.
And presumably you take the cheque (sic) to the bank, along with all of the other citizens and spread the virus even further!
The idea that the leaders are to blame, not the concept of leadership is difficult to refute when the leaders chosen to represent the Capitalist Class are fuckwits like Johnson and Trump.
I think it is a huge danger to the working class movement to be sidelined into the issue of the leaders not the system. This is where Killman and Klein are a real danger.
Trump and Johnson end up being the scapegoats for a failing system. Undoubtedly they are a pair of clowns, but is it not the fact that they are clowns, or even the fact that we have a system that allows clowns like them to be in positions of power that matters, the market system is the issue. This is what we need to get across.
UK doctors and nurses are missing out on having personal protective equipment at this point in time, not because no one had the foresight to order them. It was because the way the system works is that it prioritises Bill Gates’ need to have yachts and Roman Abramovich’s wish to own football teams over the Social needs of the vast majority.This is the message we need to get across, the way the world’s resources are used should be about the needs and requirements of the many, not the foibles of the few.
the Chinese multi billionaire Jack Ma has said he will pay for face masks, etc. For various countries. We need to get the message out that the health and well-being of the world’s population shouldn’t depend on the largesse of one individual, but on the democratic decisions of us all about the resources we all took part in creating.
This is a time like no other to demonstrate the case for socialism
One positive it gives us a big incentive to update the way we engage the general public, I’m sure the evolving nature of this will give birth to new and interesting ways of getting the Socialist message across. I think there should be even more fertile ground as a result.
In the meantime, comradely best wishes to all of the comrades out there from all of us at the Salman Rushdie World of Adventure, Whitley Bay.
” In fact they may have to do this to compensate the pubs, restaurants and places of entertainment whose business will be ruined by the government’s policy.”
Reports this morning are stating that pubs and restaurants are complaining that as the government hasn’t formally ordered them to close, they cannot claim on their insurance policies. It is said that the government are looking at a bail our for some small businesses This shown the government pecking order, big business and finance before small business and sole traders, and small businesses before the workers.
“NE Regional Branch have had a number of attempts but never with very much success”.
I wouldn’t say the online branch meetings were a complete wash out, they did work to an extent, the issue was the amount of time involved and that they became quite disjointed, you ended up giving replies to answers out of sequence, which caused difficulty in understanding the debate. Some branch meetings went on for a full weekend because of the difficulties.
I am sure though, with a bit of fine tuning it could be quite effective. One thought I had was to have a chair who would grant the floor to a contributor, and then set a time, for example five minutes, for the contributor to contribute, before moving on to the next speaker.
Considering the number of older comrades and those who have health problems, it would be lunacy to go ahead with conference. If we did go ahead it would mean exclusion to those members who did not feel able to attend because of their health and or age, which would hardly be democratic.
” for the UK population to gain herd immunity, a large enough number of people — 60 per cent of the country, 40 million people, in the words of the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance — will need to contract the virus and then recover.”
But not everyone will recover. If the death rate is 3% then 1.2 million won’t. Even if it is only 1 percent some 400,000 won’t. These will be the number of us herd who will have be sacrificed to achieve “herd immunity”.
“I don’t know if achieving herd immunity is the government’s aim or if the figure of 6 out of every 10 people having to get the virus and recover is valid, but if so it appears that the government is being advised by a mad professor.”
I think I smell the influence of Dominic Cummings and his fruitcake mates.
Reported today, divorce rates in China have spiked after the lock down there.
I also wondered about the way in which some people are panic buying toilet roll. In my local supermarket all of the shelves were cleared.
I took a slightly different view and loaded my trolley with spirits, wine, cider and beer. let’s face it you can always wipe your arse on the curtains, but how would I manage 4 weeks locked in with my beloved, without some gargle.
To be fair she seemed to share the same sentiment and ensured there were several litres of vodka and brandy purchased. Must be my scintillating conversation. 😥
The herd immunity theory that the government are relying on is the idea that immunity has a rather large flaw.
It relies on the idea that millions will get the virus and develop immunity to future outbreaks. This itself is reliant on the idea that there will be no mutations. The common cold has no vaccine against because it mutates regularly and infection with one strain gives no immunity against another.
Mutation is more likely the higher the number of times an organism reproduces itself.
The current government strategy is based on high numbers of reproductions of the virus, which increases the risk of mutation.
On the plus side, we in the SPGB have been isolated and distanced for many years, so it won’t be a new experience.
On a serious note I do think we need to consider postponing annual conference, we have a number of members who have health vulnerabilities and we don’t want to endanger any members.
Alan Johnson wrote A global recession?
“analysts warned the outbreak could wreak economic havoc on a scale not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.”
On the bright side shares in undertakers and coffin makers are on the up, might dust down my black suit and tie and apply for a job. With my miserable phizzog I should be a shoe in.
Good news that there’s another Trotskyist International, there’s just not enough of them:
Current
- Committee for a Workers’ International (Refounded) (CWI)
- Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International (CRFI)
- United Secretariat of the Fourth International (USFI
- Fourth International (ICR), also called FI (La Verité) or FI (International Secretariat)
- International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI)
- International Communist League (Fourth Internationalist) (ICL-FI), previously the International Spartacist Tendency
- International Marxist Tendency (IMT), previously the Committee for a Marxist International
- International Revolutionary Left, formed by various breakaway sections of Committee for a Workers’ International
- International Socialist Alternative, formerly Committee for a Workers’ International (CWI)
- International Socialist Tendency (IST (post-trotskyist))
- Internationalist Communist Union (ICU)
- International Workers League – Fourth International (IWL-FI)
- International Workers’ Unity – Fourth International (IWU-FI)
- League for the Fifth International (L5I)
- League for the Fourth International (LFI) [split from (ICL-FI)]
Trotskyist Fraction – Fourth International (TF-FI) - Workers International to Rebuild the Fourth International (WIRFI)
Defunct or Inactive
- Bolshevik Current for the Fourth International
- Collective for an International Conference of the Principled Trotskyism
- Liaison Committee of Militants for a Revolutionary Communist International (LCMRCI), 1995–2004
- Organizing Committee of Principist Trotskyism (Fourth International)
- Committee for a Workers’ International (CWI), 1974–2019 – split into Committee for a Workers’ International (Refounded) and International Socialist Alternative
- Committee for the Fourth International, 1940-
- Communist Organisation for a Fourth International, 2003–2007, currently inactive
- Coordination Committee for the Construction of the International Workers Party (KoorKom) – dissolved into International Workers’ League in 2002
- Fifth International of Communists
- Fourth International (International Committee (FIIC), 1980–1981
- Fourth International Posadist
- Group of Opposition and Continuity of the Fourth International
- International Centre for the Reconstruction of the Fourth International (CIRQI)
- International Centre of Orthodox Trotskyism
- International League for the Reconstruction of the Fourth International (ILRFI), 1973–1995
- International Liaison Committee of Communists (ILCC)
- International Revolutionary Marxist Tendency (TMRI), 1965–1992 – rejoined the Fourth International (post-reunification)
- International Trotskyist Committee for the Political Regeneration of the Fourth International
- International Trotskyist Opposition
- International Workers’ Committee
- International New Course
- Leninist-Trotskyist Tendency (LTT), 1991–1997
- Liaison Committee for the Reconstruction of the Fourth International (CERCI) 1988–1997
- Organizing Committee for the Reconstruction of the Fourth International (CORQI), 1972–1980
- Organizing Committee of Principist Trotskyism (Fourth International)
- Permanent Revolution
- Revolutionary Workers Ferment (Fomento Obrero Revolucionario, FOR)
- Trotskyist International Liaison Committee, 1979–1984
- Tendência Quarta Internacionalista
- Workers’ Voice (formerly Revolutionary Trotskyist League, formerly Revolutionary Trotskyist Tendency)
Seems like there’s more internationals than there are Trotskyists!
