What just happened?

May 2024 Forums General discussion What just happened?

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 19 total)
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  • #85534
    ALB
    Keymaster

    So, there's going to be a hung parliament and a weak and wobbly government. People not voting for the snooty vicar's daughter who still goes to church is easy enough to understand. Whatever made her think that she could win the support of traditional working-class voters?  The surge for Labour needs more explaining. Was it Corbyn's style? Was it Labour aanti-austerity programme? Or its calls to tax the rich? Was it young people turning out to vote? Does it come from the same stable as the vote for Brexit, an anti-Establishment vote?

    #127572

    I remember some on the Labour right arguing thus after the last election, labour got 9 million votes, the Tories 11 million, to overhaul that, Labour needed to tack right, because Tories plus UKIP formed a natural right majority.  They noted that Corbyn's alternative was to find three million voters from somewhere.  He did that, the Tories found an extra two million.  I suspect many came from the same source: they hoovered up the UKIP vote between them, but the Tories squeezed the Liberals harder.The interesting things is the six counties now only have two parties.I think the outcome is May stays, the question is, will Labour use their veto to prevent another election, and watch the Tories tear themselves apart.

    #127573
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    May has forged a deal with the Democratic Unionists to give her a seven seat majority over all the opposition parties combined which puts her in a worse position than before the election.  So we could well see a repeat of 1974 with a further general election called later in the year.  And please don't anyone say that "the people won't stand for it".  What are they going to do about it?  Revolt?  Ha ha, I wish.But whatever, we need to be much better prepared for the next election, whether general or local, with more candidates standing…

    #127574
    Brian
    Participant
    gnome wrote:
    May has forged a deal with the Democratic Unionists to give her a seven seat majority over all the opposition parties combined which puts her in a worse position than before the election.  So we could well see a repeat of 1974 with a further general election called later in the year.  And please don't anyone say that "the people won't stand for it".  What are they going to do about it?  Revolt?  Ha ha, I wish.But whatever, we need to be much better prepared for the next election, whether general or local, with more candidates standing…

    Yes we always need to be prepared for the "whatever" for with a hung parliament a further election can be called at any time.

    #127575
    ALB
    Keymaster
    Brian wrote:
    Yes we always need to be prepared for the "whatever" for with a hung parliament a further election can be called at any time.

    Not quite. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act there's another condition — that two-thirds of MPs vote for it, i.e whoever the new Tory PM is they'll have to have the support of Labour to call a snap election. Maybe Labour will agree, but that could be a miscalculation. Might be better from their point of view, as YMS hints, to let the Tories make an even bigger mess of things first. But that's conventional politics. Interesting but only as a soap opera or passing show.As far as we're concerned, it's going to mean that the Trots and other leftists are going to be staying in the Labour Party. Back to the 1960s and early 1970s when we were the only "socialists" challenging Labour in elections.

    #127576
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    ALB wrote:
    Brian wrote:
    Yes we always need to be prepared for the "whatever" for with a hung parliament a further election can be called at any time.

    Not quite. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act there's another condition — that two-thirds of MPs vote for it, i.e whoever the new Tory PM is they'll have to have the support of Labour to call a snap election.

    Very true, but don't overlook the fact that May announced at the Conservative Party manifesto launch for this General Election that the Tories intend to repeal the Act.  It will, therefore, if successfully repealed, have no bearing on the timing of future General Elections.Bear in mind also that opposition party leaders (i.e. Corbyn in this case) are likely to look at their options and rapidly conclude that, whatever their preferences, opposing an early election would make them look scared.

    #127577
    Brian
    Participant
    gnome wrote:
    ALB wrote:
    Brian wrote:
    Yes we always need to be prepared for the "whatever" for with a hung parliament a further election can be called at any time.

    Not quite. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act there's another condition — that two-thirds of MPs vote for it, i.e whoever the new Tory PM is they'll have to have the support of Labour to call a snap election.

    Very true, but don't overlook the fact that May announced at the Conservative Party manifesto launch for this General Election that the Tories intend to repeal the Act.  It will, therefore, if successfully repealed, have no bearing on the timing of future General Elections.Bear in mind also that opposition party leaders (i.e. Corbyn in this case) are likely to look at their options and rapidly conclude that, whatever their preferences, opposing an early election would make them look scared.

    Which is all the more reason to be prepared for "whatever" the outcome.  Selection of constituencies and candidates is not only urgent but also a necessity.  

    #127578
    DJP
    Participant

    Haven't seem any figures yet but looks like the youth "anti-austerity" vote played a strong role.

    #127579
    jondwhite
    Participant

    I think that big capital tends to favour funding representatives perceived as 'professional' (smart appearance, university educated, well spoken, maybe a background in lobbying like Owen Smith etc.) with no principles or very flexible principles.I think those voters that voted Corbyn cottoned on that these sort of 'professionals' are slimy and without integrity and Corbyn is the opposite.So yes, an anti-establishment vote.This is probably why it was a mistake for the Tories to target Corbyn personally and many voters that did not support Corbyn can't understand why anyone would elect someone so 'unprofessional'. Maybe if the Tories had made more of the economic failings and fallacies of Labour (and not a personal campaign) they would have been more successful.

    #127580
    Dave T
    Participant

    Just shows how low the expectations of the reformist and so called revolutionary left has become when failure is somehow seen as a success. Corbyn offers nothing substantial to workers as he would have refused to tax the rich to finance the minimal social reforms which he promised. Given his history of capitulation to the Blairites in the Labour Party then even these minimal reforms were doubtful. Still this euphoria of low expectations will dissolve in the harsh light of reality.

    #127581
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    At least it seems with the loss of more than a score of seats, the SNP and Sturgeon will not be pushing too much for a repeat Independence referendum.Many will be sighing with relief that at least will be a respite that won't be an additional vote.

    #127582
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    In regard to Politic and Baseball nobdoy can predicts anything, that is the reason why i never predict which  candidate would be the winner or the loser. The only one  that I know tor certain is the  winner is capitalism and the loser is the working class that is predictable most of the time

    #127583
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    The Tories got 13 seats in Scotland and even if all the attention is on the DUP, the Scottish Tories have their own agenda they seek to be met.  They are for a soft Brexit much in line with SNP and Scotish Labour. Their leader Ruth Davidson has also warned May to defend LGBT issues against the puritanical DUP, since she herself is planning a to have same-sex wedding soon. 

    #127584
    robbo203
    Participant

    It seems now that Labour has overtaken the Tories in the popularity contest .  Had the election been two weeks later we could be talking about PM Corbynhttp://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-now-has-a-six-point-lead-over-the-tories-new-poll-finds/ar-BBCssDl?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp

    #127585
    DJP
    Participant
    robbo203 wrote:
    Had the election been two weeks later we could be talking about PM Corbyn

    I think the event of the lost majority and proposed DUP coalition will have had something to do with the loss in Torie power..

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