The new recession is arriving?

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This topic contains 33 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by  alanjjohnstone 2 weeks, 6 days ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 34 total)
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  • #152324

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    We all wait for it to happen. If we could predict when, we would be Nobel Prize winners and billionaires.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/11/asian-stock-markets-dive-as-trump-attacks-crazy-us-rate-hikes

    #152438

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45820640

    Merely a correction of a bull market ….. or the beginnings of the crash?

    #154186

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant
    #154197

    Matthew Culbert
    Keymaster

    Another ominous sign?

    Is it being so cheery keeps you going?

    #154216

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    Perhaps it is because i am much more vulnerable to the vagaries of capitalism, Matt, that i see constantly see dark clouds of recession on the horizon looming.

    When i retired, received the redundancy lump sum pay-out and sold my house,  i placed money in investment bonds…guess what…the 2007/8 crash happened and the promised returns never materialised for a long time.

    Then when the referendum went for leaving the EU,  the pound exchange rate dropped and has not recovered so it reduced my budget for paying household bills. When Brexit does happen, that exchange rate is guaranteed to fall again, isn’t it?

    Hence my pessimism and glass-half-empty outlook. If my fellow-workers shared this attitude, perhaps they might be a bit more determined to fight for a better future.  👿

    #154217

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    Oh, i should also add that i cashed in the bonds early convinced that the record highs of the stock market could not continue and share prices would drop.

    How was i to know that they would keep getting even more record highs and i should have waited a bit longer.

    #154272

    Marcos
    Participant

    The stock market is not an indication of a healthy capitalist economy, before the Great Depression the stock market was very high too, and then it went all the way down. Capitalist crisis starts at the point of production, and we have been in crisis for many years, and we are still suffering  the consquences of old crisis,  including the one from 1930, because capitalists are accumulating huge profits, it doesn’t mean that we are not in the middle of a capitalist crisis, crisis are longer than the period of economical boom. Most of those experts think that crisis are produced by banks and financial transactions, they are not, they do not produce anything in this society, a virus or a bacteria produce more benefits  than them

    #154414

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    More harbingers of doom

    Wall Street and European stock markets followed Asian shares lower on Tuesday, as investors around the world took fright at the increasingly fractious global geopolitical outlook.

    Investors are growing increasingly worried about a cocktail of risks that could act as a significant drag on the world economy. Potential headwinds include the trade dispute between the US and China, rising US interest rates, the fallout from the death of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the budget dispute between the EU and Italy.

    Oliver Jones, a markets economist at the research firm Capital Economics, said: “Worries about problems in the US, and to some extent in the past few days China, have proved contagious.”

    UK investor morale has hit its lowest level in at least 23 years, according to the financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown.

    “Investors are in grim mood, as time is running out on Brexit negotiations with little progress on show”

    Stephen Innes, the head of Asia-Pacific trading for the foreign exchange firm Oanda, said stock markets “remain shrouded in a thick blanket of risk” triggered by negative news from around the world.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/23/global-markets-take-fright-at-cocktail-of-geopolitical-risks

     

    #158358

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant
    #158796

    Anonymous

    I love coming in here! I think to myself I’ve had a bad day, then I come here and read Alan’s posts on climate change, dog food and the looming crash and I feel better!  😀

    #158797

    Anonymous

    In more sober response, its anyone’s guess. I think markets will remain volatile for a few years surround Brexit before settling in the UK. But to be honest, I think climate change will start having serious economic impacts in the next 5-6 years……crop failures, water shortages and insurance payouts for damages caused by weather events……

    There’s always something to look forward to comrade!

    #159756

    James_Moir
    Participant

    When I retired, I just put my lump sum in the Bank: end of.

    #159776

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    When i took my early retirement, some years after yourself, James, the bank’s interest rate had gone down to virtually zero and there was serious talk of actually charging customers for placing money into an account.

    Luckily for the Party, we now have an investment committee to ensure our cash is giving us a financial return.

    #159940

    James_Moir
    Participant

    Aye you are right, but when I took my early retirement, the LEEDS – no longer with us – was paying 12.5% tax paid.

    How times change…

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  James_Moir.
    #161498

    alanjjohnstone
    Participant

    Is this the start?

    US stock markets continued to fall on Tuesday, wiping out all of 2018’s gains…The leading tech companies have now lost a combined $1trn in value since their year highs…oil price tumbled and investors sold investments in retailers, energy companies and bitcoin…there were likely to be more wild swings to come. “I don’t think Santa Claus is going to waltz in and give us a rally for Christmas,” said Michael Antonelli, managing director of institutional sales trading at Robert W Baird in Milwaukee. Investors have been “throwing growth stocks and tech in the trash”, said Antonelli. “It’s not that there is new news. It’s tension and nervousness.”

    Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset Capital explained, the sheer size of the tech companies had propped up the stock market rally and their recent wobbles were exposing “deterioration” in the wider market, said Ablin. Corporate America has been buying its own shares, and boosting share prices as a result, at a record-setting rate – $115bn of stock in the first three-quarters of 2018. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates rising is likely to cap that trend, said Ablin.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/20/us-stock-markets-continue-fall-erasing-2018-gains

    “All good things eventually come to an end,” said Goldman Sachs’ market analysts on Tuesday, striking a bearish tone in their predictions for 2019. “Cash will represent a competitive asset class to stocks for the first time in many years,” the Wall Street bank said

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2018/nov/20/wall-street-senses-change-as-the-bear-reveals-its-faangs

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