Scottish referendum…again

August 2022 Forums General discussion Scottish referendum…again

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  • #230495
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    The SNP plans another independence referendum.

    Our case that it is an irrelevancy has not changed but the consequences for a sovereign Scotland have changed such as a hard border if Scotland rejoins the EU.

    I will be curious to see if the turn-out will match the very high 2014 level. Or will many vote with their feet and abstain.

    #230504
    Moo
    Participant

    Damn it! I was one month out! I said after the 2019 General Election, there would be a second Scottish independence referendum in September 2023.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/15/nicola-sturgeon-second-scottish-independence-referendum-october-2023

    #230856
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    19th October 2023 if permitted
    or
    the Scottish results at the next General Election to provide the necessary mandate if refused

    Will it be seats won or votes cast for the SNP (and the Green Party)?

    Either way of counting, the general election route will constitutionally be UDI, won’t it?

    I don’t think it will receive the same keen interest as it did in 2014. The abstention rate will be higher, I believe.

    The question will also be about re-joining the EU and if that happens, the border becomes a barrier to trade and movement.

    The blogs will be republishing their old posts and merely updating details.

    #230868
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    This article clarifies one point

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/28/nicola-sturgeon-seeks-supreme-court-ruling-on-scottish-independence-referendum-vote

    “SNP would be empowered to open independence talks with the UK government if it won a majority of votes.”

    And she denies it would be an act of UDI

    “She told reporters it would be “ridiculous” to describe that process as a unilateral declaration of independence,”

    #230869
    Moo
    Participant

    “Will it be seats won or votes cast for the SNP (and the Green Party)?”

    I predict the SNP would win a majority of the seats, but they (and the Greens) wouldn’t win a majority of the votes.

    However, the issue will likely be resolved before the general election. This is because the SNP apparently wants to hold a consultative referendum (i.e. a non-legally binding one), so if they win it they can say to Westminster: “The people have spoken and they want freeeeeedoooooom!”.

    #230873
    ALB
    Keymaster

    So she’s called her own bluff. But I can’t believe that enough Scotch workers will be stupid enough to vote for something that will disrupt their life to no useful end; since, after the administrative upheaval is over, they will be in the same position as they were before. Mind you, enough English workers did to bring about Brexit.

    #230876
    Moo
    Participant

    Yet again, the burning questions of the referendum will be:

    1. Will Scotland join the EU or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), or neither?

    2. What will happen to the UK’s nuclear weapons (that are based in Scotland)?

    3. What will happen to the border between England and Scotland?

    4. What will happen to non-Scottish Brits living in Scotland, and vice versa?

    5. What currency would Scotland use?

    6. Will Scotland join the Commonwealth Realm or become a republic?

    Apart from number 4, the above questions are a bunch of trivialities that distract from the real problems facing the world. Although, sadly, just like Brexit, people will get very passionate about whether the workers of Scotland should be exploited by Scottish/European capitalism or British capitalism.

    #230906
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    How different would a sovereign Scotland act?

    This may be an indication of non-change.

    “The Scottish government has pledged £65m to the war effort in Ukraine.The contribution will make up part of the £1bn funding the UK government is providing to the Ukrainian military. It will be used to help provide state of the art equipment including air defence systems and vital kit for soldiers.Finance Secretary Kate Forbes said the money would help in the fight against Russian aggression.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-61988919

    #230907
    ALB
    Keymaster

    Is that money they got from their own tax-raising powers or are they just handing back to the central government some of what the central government gave them?

    Another question to add to MOO’s list — Will Scotland join NATO? And probably the answer to question 2.

    #230908
    alanjjohnstone
    Keymaster

    “After years of having no enthusiasm for the alliance, we opted to embrace membership for a future independent Scotland.”

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/the-scottish-governments-support-for-nato-is-stronger-than-ever

    #230912
    Moo
    Participant

    If western governments really cared about the Ukrainian people they would match humanitarian aid with military aid.

    #230916
    ALB
    Keymaster

    Just realised that I posted this, about the different attitude of the Welsh government, on the wrong thread:

    Apparently the Welsh government is not so happy about £30 million being deducted from their allocation to pay to send lethal weapons to Ukraine. It also seems that the Scottish government was making a virtue out of necessity:

    ‘Not right’: UK Government dips into Welsh and Scottish budgets for £1bn Ukraine military aid

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