Russian Tensions
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TS – “Donbass will be fully liberated by August if Scott Ritter is to be believed and he hasn’t got much wrong so far.”
Other than this miscalculation by Ritter
TS – “My initial assessment was based on that of Scott Ritter. He expected Russia to follow their standard military doctrine, a doctrine that would have been used in a confrontation with NATO. But Russia refrained from doing so..”
I have little confidence in any of the predictions being made. Deception is the first rule of war and neither side are being open and transparent about their strategies and tactics, nor their losses.
If the Russian offensive has begun, its opening advances have been limited.
“The Russian Defense Ministry said its troops broke through two Ukrainian defensive lines in the eastern Luhansk region and pushed back Ukrainian troops some three kilometers (two miles).”
Time will tell.
While Russia’s army is much greater than Ukraine’s in total, they can’t commit everything, since they need to hold the whole of their vast territory.
Yes, I think by the end of the year Russia might well have occupied all Donbas.
NATO’s cupboard isn’t entirely bare, just strained relative to what the member states think they can spare versus maintaining their own battle readiness: and relative to non-total war arms manufacture: they can keep supplying long enough to maintain a viable Ukrainian army in the field.
Yes, they may have to keep falling back on new defences, but it doesn’t look like they are headed for open rout.
As Alan says, we don’t really know, so maybe everything will change, but the fact the most likely thing is that some sort of frozen conflict will emerge.
From a Kremlin POV that would still be a win: they’d have proven they were willing to commit blood and treasure to defending their turf, and turn Ukraine into a ko position for the foreseeable.
Scott Ritter said in February 2022 that Russia would not invade the Ukraine.
After the invasion he said that, Ukraine will fall in maximimum of a week.
I wouldn’t rely on him for your racing tips, TW
An interesting article on the munitions question:
“Russia also requires vast amounts of ammunition. However, Putin has put his entire economy on a war footing. It is not subject to the same commercial constraints as Nato’s defence industry, and Russian producers are not constrained by concerns over industrial safety. Nato must strive to ramp up production before Moscow resolves the inefficiencies, corruption and inertia of its manufacturing base.”
Thanks to the loathsome capitalist warmongers on both sides of this sordid conflict we can expect to see much more spent on the military in the future at the expense of socially useful production – not to mention tens of thousands of working-class lives lost for the sake of their respective capitalist warlords, Messrs Putin and Zelensky. It makes you sick at the very thought of it….
“Scott Ritter said in February 2022 that Russia would not invade the Ukraine.”
Dunno where you got that from since he predicted the invasion in late 2021 after NATO rebuffed Moscow’s call to respect its security demands.
“After the invasion he said that, Ukraine will fall in maximimum of a week.”
It almost did. But again, he was expecting Russia to go in according to doctrine. As one would. His underlying assumption that Ukraine is no match for Russia has proven correct.
“I wouldn’t rely on him for your racing tips, TW”
His overall prediction that Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance has been very accurate.
“There are 284 pages on this discussion board, can you show just how you have proven the numbers you have stated “time and time again to be correct”.
I’m not going to trawl through the thread to do that. Do your own homework. But I said the Russian death toll was less than 10,000 which was confirmed by a BBC investigation. This does not include the death toll of the Donbass militia which is probably of a slightly larger number as they were doing much of the initial frontline combat. I said the deaths of Ukrainians were upward of 150,000, now much more. Von der Layan let it slip a couple months back that the death toll of Ukrainians was 100,000.
“Very little you have predicted has come to fruition.”
Funny, I don’t recall making many predictions about the war. My only major prediction has been that Russia will win decisively. And that is exactly what is happening.
“An interesting article on the munitions question:
“Russia also requires vast amounts of ammunition. However, Putin has put his entire economy on a war footing. It is not subject to the same commercial constraints as Nato’s defence industry, and Russian producers are not constrained by concerns over industrial safety.”
Complete bunk as articulated in Alexander Mercouris’ latest YouTube video.
The credibility of Alexander Mercouris
TS offers a crooked lawyer as an expert
He is editor of The Duran
“Overall, we rate The Duran as a Questionable source based on far-right-wing bias, promotion of Russian propaganda, right-wing conspiracies, a lack of transparency, use of poor sources, plagiarism, and failed fact checks.”
Further to who is paying the price of the war, in Ukraine, it is workers’ rights being attacked as well
How much reliability should we place on the opinion of Scott Ritter.
During the build-up to the Iraq War I held his views to be well informed because he had been recently been connected to first-hand intel.
Fast forward twenty years
As TS himself has admitted, Ritter misunderstood Russia’s tactics. He has at the beginning of the war foresaw a rapid Russian victory and again had to correct himself.
“The military aid the west is providing to Ukraine is changing the dynamic and if Russia doesn’t find a way to address this meaningfully… the conflict will never end.”It was another mistake but in Feb 2023, his view on the crucial supply of West weapons remains pertinent. Nobody in authority disputes the supply problems and the time-lag. But nor do they agree that there will be a speedy end to the war. Perhaps an extended ceasefire and the resumption of hostilities at a later time.
Ritter should be heeded to some extent such as his contention that the Russians would respond to the loss of Crimea and Southern Ukraine with attacks on Polish, German and even British supply lines. This would lead to a collective response from NATO and would inevitably lead to a nuclear exchange.
Once again the view of most of us here that Ukrainian territory should be conceded in any settlement is validated.
Another article on Ukrainian workers’ rights being taken away
“As TS himself has admitted, Ritter misunderstood Russia’s tactics.”
He does not misunderstand Russian tactics. He understands them intimately. Russia did not follow its standard tactical doctrine which no one could have predicted. It hardly disqualifies him as an expert source of information which he is. And, it must be noted, the Russians are using doctrine now and the results are horrifying. 15:1 casualties.
“He has at the beginning of the war foresaw a rapid Russian victory and again had to correct himself.”
There was a rapid victory over the first iteration of Ukraine’s army. NATO came to the rescue and refloated it. So again, Ritter was correct.
“The military aid the west is providing to Ukraine is changing the dynamic and if Russia doesn’t find a way to address this meaningfully… the conflict will never end.”
And what did he say next? Russia needs to mobilise more troops which is exactly what happened.
“TS – “China is run by Marxists…”
I won’t refer to anything we have written but from someone who once believed China was on the path to ‘socialism’ (which we never have)
“…starting in the early 1980s, China has become a full fledged capitalist country…”
“…While China currently plays an important and positive balancing role on the geopolitical chessboard, it is not a “socialist” Nation State…”
“…It is important that people on the Left who describe China as a socialist country take cognizance of the oppressive nature of China’s cheap labour export economy…”
“…China is not a socialist country. Quite the opposite. It is a low wage economy…”
“…The interests of powerful Chinese business groups … are represented at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership…”
“…The Socialist Mainstream has casually dismissed to even acknowledge the facts pertaining to land concentration, ownership and the rise of social inequality and the development of buoyant luxury goods sector for a small privileged social minority…”
Bunch of crap. Here’s Vijay Prashad’s response to anti-communist, anti-socialist crusaders such as yourselves and the quoted author.
https://www.qiaocollective.com/articles/conversation-vijay-prashad
“It was a report on RTE radio, I tend to listen to RTE rather than BBC as it appears to be less heavily biased that BBC and you often hear international stories that aren’t reported in the UK.”
Thank you! radio telefis eireann was the go-to media when I lived in Ireland before migrating.
It has its own local bias: yet maintains independent as possible journalistic coverage.Yes less heavily biased and less influenced by the City of London (Commerce).
We hope it is never okay to target civilians, not ever… TS think mindfully to BD and his question. This is one of those boundary lines…
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