Russian Tensions
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I can’t think of any, though forcing Germany to pay more for its gas will undermine the competitiveness of a commercial rival.
Britain’s belligerence, as expressed by Borys, Truss and Wally, would seem to be political, even personal. It has even been described as delusional in that Britain thinks that it still has the global clout that it had in the past. Whatever it is, it is malign.
At some point British oligarchs can be expected to put pressure on the government and get it to tone down its rhetoric and bring the matter to an end so that normal profit-making can resume. But there’s no sign of this yet. Maybe we will have to wait until the cost of living crisis and slump in world trade provoked by sanctions get worse.
The only one that is obtaining real gains in this conflict is the USA ruling class. They are talking about creating a ‘Martial Plan’ for Ukraine like it was done after WW2.
This conflict has shown that the only strength that Russia has is the atomic bombs, but militarily it has been a complete failure like the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and its economy has been completely affected by the USA sanctions
Borys restates his war aim:
“UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson vowed to remain a “steadfast friend of Ukraine as it continues its heroic struggle against Russia’s invasion,” in a written foreword to the Queen’s Speech, marking the state opening of Parliament on Tuesday.
“We will not waver — and we will not let up — until Putin fails,” Johnson said.”He is obviously in his element but to what end? The chances are that he will fall before Putin does.
And Putin could not see this US plan? He took the bait of invading Ukraine, which couldn’t join NATO in any case? He is a patsy?
Like Sadam Hussein In Kwait. It was known that Ukraine was not going to join NATO and the EU
I think ALB’s view that Putin could quite easily occupy the Donbas is probably not quite as straightforward as it looks.
The Donbas has an area of about 60,000 sq km, which is over 4 times the size of Northern Ireland. It is estimated that The Provisional IRA had a maximum strength of about 2 – 3,000 active members during the Troubles. That tied down up to 30,000 members of the British Army, not including the RUC and other quasi military bodies.
Although the IRA was reasonably well funded, it’s funding would be minuscule in comparison to a similarly based Ukrainian insurgency group. A Ukrainian insurgency campaign could be very costly (in troops and material) for Putin.
The little know anti USSR guerrilla campaign in the Baltic states between 1945 – 1953 cost the USSR an approximate 30,000 lives. This would be even more costly.
I thought Putin explained clearly in his speech at the military parade yesterday in Red Square why Russia went to war. Besides fearing NATO moving its bases and missiles right up to its southern border he also saw NATO arming Ukraine for an attack on the two breakaway statelets. Whether or not he was wrong about the first he could well have been right about the second. Which Russia couldn’t let happen. In which case Russia’s invasion would be a pre-emptive strike. We will see what he settles for after Russia captures the rest of the Donbas region.
“Dutch Party Asks Zelensky to Account for $850M in Personal Wealth | 6 May 2022 | Last year, a Pandora Papers leak revealed that Mr Zelensky, who campaigned on promises to “break the system” of oligarchic control and corruption in Ukraine (ER: to our knowledge, the very opposite has happened), set up a spider web of offshore companies in 2012. Zelensky’s office justified the move by saying they were a form of “protection” against former President Viktor Yanukovych. A Dutch political party has taken an interest in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s personal fin-nces. “Zelensky has a fortune: various estimates put his wealth at around 850 million. He amassed most of it after taking office as president. Where does the m-ney come from? And more importantly, where is it going?” the Forum for Democracy asked in posts on its Twitter and Telegram accounts on Monday.”
Are you sure that is a reliable source? It doesn’t seem to be. The Dutch Forum for Democracy party seems to be a far-right white nationalist party:
Ukraine turns off the gas for Europe
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-western-f19fc83e64850001b73734254a8efeff
UK has agreed mutual security pacts with Sweden and Finland, agreeing to come to their aid should either nation come under attack.
It will just be a pose. The only reason I can think of is that it fits in with Borys’s political agenda of “global Britain”, ie to try to show that Brexit Britain is a world power in its own right alongside the US and the EU. That’s a delusion of course since Britain like the EU, Japan and South Korea is dependent on the US for its own defence. Which is why they have no alternative to go along with the US on sanctions (which wouldn’t work without US participation). Maybe Borys is expecting a few treats as best poodle.
There is also Borys’s personal agenda of portraying himself as a war leader. I imagine the rest of the cabinet are humouring him on this and leaving him a free hand since they know it’s just posturing (and surely are joking about it behind his back).
It is rather surprising though that, from a bourgeois-democratic point of view, Britain can sign, without any parliamentary or public discussion, a treaty with Sweden to go to war to defend that country in the event of it being attacked. But it means nothing as there is no prospect of this of course. So just a cheap gesture.
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