Coronavirus
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There was nothing disingenuous about comparing the first 13 weeks of 2018 to the first 13 of 2020.
As you say 2017-2018 influenza out break was at its peak around December as usual.
The ONS data was in yearly week one to week 52 spreadsheet type files.
Influenza outbreaks in the UK are supposed to kill 8000 to 30,000 so an extra 14,000 for a 3 month period of the end of a bad outbreak is to be expected.
Post event data correction is good but there is no evidence of anything dramatic here.
Just grumblings from the ONS that 10-15% of death data comes in too late eg more than 2 weeks after the event.
Nobody knows how many of the 5-7000 people who are dying with covid are dying from it.
Nobody, I asked ONS by email I was amazed I sent the email a 8pm got a reply by 10 am next day. I thought they would be busy.
Was planning to use a friend to ask who works on NHS databases and has an NHS email address in the “Manchester area” ; she provides stats to ONS.
She doesn’t believe it either and wants to put her name to a petition.
Doctors or groups of doctors of say 5 in intensive care units having filled out 30 covid death certificates might have and idea now?
We will have a better idea on the 14 april when the next set of UK ONS data comes out.
I really do not know what to expect.
As to peaks
if you look at china one and the italy one they are as a pattern similar
The peak after 3-4 weeks of a start and begin to tail off.
Do it youself!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
look to the histograms at the end.
And then uk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
Actually that pattern is typical of infectious or fast spreading coronavirus.
It reminds me of that Rockerfeller University guy grinding his teeth.
“ don’t ask me I am a scientist not a psychiatrist”
And bugs and nature dig Gaussian distributions
although it looks more like Poisson to me?
As to its fatality or it case fatality rate over the last 10 days or so it is being revised down even by the protagonists the Imperial college London.
It is now believed by all that its infectiousness or how fast it spreads is far greater than originally believed.
R0 and Rt numbers etc.
What that means is that as they know roughly when it started in any location they can extrapolate how many had actually had had it at any point in time.
These are real ballpark figures but that is ok;
they discovered nuclear fusion by using a black bucket of water and a thermometer left in the sun.
Having a guesstimate of how many people died “from” it at that point in time gives you fatality rate.
Hence Neil Fergusson of imperial college London who stampeded the herd has rolled back from 500,000 to 250,000 and to 20,000.
Two thirds of which would of died anyway according to him.
There was a scoffing article in the new scientist on that around 25 march.
The Oxford University team of Sunitra Gupta believes as of 10 days ago said
up to 68% of people had already had it.
There is bad blood there that hit the headlines; what a bunch of shits that work on the imperial team!
This is so fast;talking about stuff at peer review stage!
I have read the abstract.
Of course to do this properly you have to test a large random sample for covid to see how many people had it.
Iceland did it early on.
This corona virus Pandemic data has to be looked at with caution as it is heavily skewed by increasing testing amongst other things.
And that test results are 2-4 days late.
The apparently long incubation time etc etc it is highly unlikely any positive affect of lockdown will appear for another couple of weeks.
The false positive potential of RT-PCR testing you need clean working practices.
That big spike in the china data oops.
I have used it in the past for out sourced testing to pick up mandarin in orange juice and to identify rogue mannitol producing bugs from plant biofilm contamination.
So I can talk the talk even if I don’t do that shit myself.
But it is general to analysis, the test is very sensitive and you have calibration samples sitting around on the lab bench ; who hasn’t done it?
The Swedes , sensible people, have had no lockdown and have peaked and stabilised despite ramped up testing “seek and you shall find”.
In the table they have also sensible used a 7 day moving average to iron out statistical noise.
They are about 4 weeks into it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
7 day moving average deaths and case started to flatten on 5/4.
I believe at the moment, now, that this is highly infectious or very fast spreading and it is killing old and vulnerable people.
I suspect that there will be an extraordinary spike in deaths next week in the ONS UK data.
And that spike will be historically exceptional for April.
And it will be picked up and maybe the next outside the 2Z score or 5% probability of statistical noise or whatever.
Nobody, nobody knows how many of that 5 or 7 thousand in the UK actually died of covid.
Nobody knows how many people are dying of Covid without anyone knowing about it.
But they will be added to next weeks ONS data.
If this covid had started in September or October like the 2017-18 flu it could have equalled it and claimed 30K; I really didn’t and haven’t looked at the late 2017 data just assumed it would be ramping up to a peak at the beginning of 2018.
It is a bit disingenuous using 2018 as it was a bad once in 10 years one and 2019 was fairly good and 2020 started well.
This is the problem as you can’t speak rationally without being accused of being nazi Malthusian.
From 31 March 2020 these figures also show the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), based on any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.
It is undoubtedly very dangerous for very ill old people.
However my employer across sever manufacturing sites employs 7000 people.
HR informed me yesterday that we had had no covid fatalities.
Yes I know Flu isn’t nice.
Last year around February I had to go into hospital for the first time in 30 years and I wasn’t happy about it as people die in hospitals.
They wanted to keep me in there for a couple of days for observation as things were quiet.
I was amazed I expected to be left sleeping on a corridor.
There was a really nasty influenza virus lurking around at the time but it wasn’t very infectious.
I got it there though and ended up much more ill than I went in.
They tested me after I got worse rather than better.
And was whisked out of the ward I was in to an isolation ward at 4am in the morning as the on site RT-PCR lab, I think it could have been serological, night shift picked it up.
It almost killed me.
Capitalism is the real pandemic
Covid-19 Lays Bare Capitalism’s Deference to Profits over Lives
COVID 19 lays bare capitalism deference to profits over lives. Another point of view
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents
Don’t worry…where the government fails to deliver, the Mafia will
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents
“Mafias are not just criminal organisations,’’ Federico Varese, professor of criminology at the University of Oxford, said. “They are organisations that aspire to govern territories and markets. Commentators often focus on the financial aspect of mafias but they tend to forget that their strength comes from having a local base from which to operate.”
During the Great Depression Al Capone had free chicken soup restaurants in Chicago, and he fed thousands of unemployed and homeless peoples
https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/al-capones-soup-kitchen-great-depression-chicago-1931/
This is what some researchers have said about the Spanish Flu ( which emerged in the USA before Spain ) The guy is a right-winger, which might discredit his opinion
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/stanford-researchers-californians-may-herd-234859052.html
https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/mystery-of-1918-pandemic-flu-virus-solved-by-ua-researchers
The mystery about the Spanish flu has been documented by some researchers of the University of Arizona, School of Sciences
I thought viruses were just carried by the bloodstream. I didn’t know they walked, on “legs” , while searching for cells. (BBC 4 science documentary).
Watch a virus walking on legs.
https://www.businessinsider.com/t7-bacteriophage-walks-e-coli-surface-2013-1?r=US&IR=T
Telegraph
25 March 2020 • 4:13pm
Up to two thirds of people who die from corona virus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.
But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.
Appearing via videolink, and drinking from a Keep Calm and Carry On mug, Prof Ferguson said: “We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?…
About half of Scotland’s privately-run care homes have suspected coronavirus cases.
There is an official count of the number of suspected cases of coronavirus in care homes, but it could be up to three months before it is published. The Care Inspectorate watchdog is refusing to publish this Scotland-wide data at the height of the crisis.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52246860
In France a similar issue of non-reporting of deaths and cases
In fact care homes is a world problem
“Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.”
If it’s less than 20,000 I’ll show my arse in HO front window the next time we get to have party conference
Although the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918-19 killed millions (including the Party’s first general secretary Con Lehane, by then an ex-member, in New York in 1919), there seems to have been no mention of it in the Socialist Standard of the time,
All I have come across is this passing reference a few years later in the April 1922 issue:
”During the last ten years probably a hundred millions of people have died as a result of war, famine, and pestilence (influenza).”
It was called Spanish flu to blame it in Spain who was a neutral country but the virus emerged in the USA and within the troops. The coronavirus has been named the Chinese flu to blame in China when this virus had prior existed and due to deforestation is an element of animal infection The USA always blames its problem on somebody else and the new midget is an expert on that
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