alanjjohnstone
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Non-violent resistance to Russia explored
The Hague was used for the trials of the Serbian politicians and military commanders including Slobodan Milošević, the former president. Ukraine would be the nation to initiate the legal proceedings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_in_the_Yugoslav_Wars
The big problem is getting Putin to trial and that depends on regime change. I think it is extremely doubtful that will ever be achieved.
Let’s not overlook that the International Court of Justice found the USA guilty of violating international law by supporting the Contras against the Nicaraguan government and then mining the country’s sea-ports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua_v._United_States
Ordered to pay reparations, the United States refused despite UN General Assembly voting two times for the USA to comply.
Nor let us forget what is nicknamed the Hague Invasion Act, authorising the USA to take military action if at any time its citizens or of its allies face trial before the International Criminal Court,
So much for the international rule of law being applied to super-powers.
In regards to the UK, it is flouting international court decisions against its so-called soverignty of the Chagos Islands
Putin remains determined
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220315-live-poland-calls-for-nato-peace-mission-to-help-ukraine
Putin said Wednesday that his military campaign in Ukraine was a success and that he would not allow the country to become a “springboard” used to threaten Russia. “The operation is developing successfully and in strict accordance with plans,” he said in a televised government meeting.
Putin said on Wednesday that Russia was ready to discuss Ukraine’s neutral status in talks aimed at ending hostilities there, but that Moscow would still achieve the goals of its military operation, which was “going to plan”. He said the West had effectively declared Russia in default as part of its sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, and that the conflict had merely been a pretext for the West to impose sanctions.
A model of legally binding security guarantees that would offer Ukraine protection in the event of a future attack is “on the negotiating table” at talks between Kyiv and Moscow, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said.
“The negotiations are not easy for obvious reasons,” Lavrov told RBC news. “But nevertheless, there is some hope of reaching a compromise. Neutral status is now being seriously discussed seriously along, of course, with security guarantees. This is what is now being discussed at the talks. There are absolutely specific wordings and in my view, the sides are close to agreeing on them.”
We can expect a very complicated worded ceasefire agreement.
But remember the Vietnam peace talks in Paris began in 1968 and took to 1973 to be signed. And it was almost immediately broken.
Talk of a possible peace settlement is now being reported in the media.
Zelenskyy said late Tuesday that “difficult” diplomatic talks with Moscow appear to be moving in a positive direction.
Zelenskyy said that “the positions during the negotiations already sound more realistic”
“All wars end in agreements,” said Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy said in a speech Tuesday that his country “must recognize” that NATO membership is not a feasible goal
“For years we heard about open doors, but we understand that we cannot enter,” Zelenskyy said
From Cde Browne who has access to the Washington Post which is behind a pay-wall.
The possible nuclear option
https://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-nuclear-option.html
Libcom contributor posted a Lenin article that those who come across Leninist pro-Russian advocates such as Robbo has done, might be useful in quoting
https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1904/feb/03.htm
“…The riches of the Russian bourgeoisie have been created by the impoverishment and the ruin of the Russian workers—and so now, in order to multiply these riches, the workers must shed their blood to give the Russian bourgeoisie a free hand in conquering and enslaving the Chinese and the Korean working man.
This criminal war, which holds in store immense calamities for the working people, has been engendered by the interests of the greedy bourgeoisie, the interests of capital, which is prepared to sell and ruin its own country in its drive for profit. This hazardous gamble involving the blood and property of Russian citizens is the result of the policy of a despotic government which tramples all human rights and keeps its people in servitude. In response to the wild war-cries, in response to the “patriotic” flag-waving by the flunkeys of the money-bag and the lackeys of the police-whip, the class-conscious Social-Democratic proletariat must come forward and demand with tenfold energy: “Down with the autocracy!”….”“…Long live the fraternal union of the proletarians of all countries fighting for complete liberation from the yoke of international capital! Long live Japanese Social-Democracy protesting against the war! Down with the ignominious and predatory tsarist autocracy!”
FYI
I have agreed to take over the role of being the new moderator of the forum. Some may remember I have served the Party as a moderator previously.
I don’t think members of this forum will detect too much of a difference as I intend to follow Matt’s light touch to moderating, issuing the occasional reminder of the forum guidelines when posts veer off-topic or if exchanges grow too personally acrimonious.
Matt as ex-IWW knew only too well the old Wobbly saying. “Don’t Mourn – Organize!”
An escalation?
An international peacekeeping mission with military capability should be sent to Ukraine, the leader of Poland’s ruling party has suggested while on a symbolic trip to Kyiv.
“I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission – Nato, possibly some wider international structure – but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski said.
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Trade threatened
Economic growth in Europe will be “severely impacted” in the wake of sanctions against Russia, the EU’s trade chief has warned.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commissioner for Trade, warned of higher inflation, pressure on energy and food prices, market volatility and disruption to supply chains.
But, speaking after a meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels, Dombrovskis added it was “impossible” to assess the exact economic impact at this stage.
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Covid?
Russian vaccine supply?
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ALB – “…At some point the war will end and their will be a settlement. What will it be? How can we know? How can anyone know? But I think we can rule out a permanent Russian occupation of the whole of Ukraine. Ukraine joining NATO is out too. That leaves plenty of room for a whole range of possible solutions. For what it’s worth (and that’s not much) I don’t think there will be an escalation to a wider war or it becoming another Afghanistan for Russia…”
We have already been caught on the wrong foot by trying to second guess the future.
Being a pessimistic glass-half-empty person I can only foresee a global economic recession, worldwide food and fuel shortages and political destabilization in many countries arising from the former.
This will lead to further confrontations yet unforeseen that may well be bloodier than Ukraine. Remember the Rwanda genocide? No need for missiles or tanks. Not even bullets. Over half a million were killed with simple machetes and axes.
I don’t believe there is going to be a swift conclusion to the conflict. It may only enter another phase.
Is the occupation of the Donbas not conceivable and could it be acceptable to Ukraine?
If the Russians do withdraw, there are still the issue of war reparations to be demanded by Ukraine.
This will drag on and on and 3 million refugees will eventually begin to face discrimination and prejudice in the competition for jobs and housing in the already fragile economies of Eastern Europe. (The first victims being the Ukrainian Roma is a good bet)
With international aid diverted to support Ukraine, that means even less to be spent elsewhere in the world which returns me to my point on the lasting impact of the war that we so far cannot imagine. But something somewhere will happen
Never even knew of its existence, the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
United Kingdom, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-expeditionary-force-leaders-statement-15-march-2022
Johnson explains “Vladimir Putin over the last years has been like a pusher, feeding an addiction in western countries to his hydrocarbons. We need to get ourselves off that addiction.”
So he switches his dope-dealer by visiting Saudi Arabia
From RT but who else will give details of the extreme right-wing Ukrainian tendencies
https://www.rt.com/russia/551975-nazi-influence-ukrainian-politics/
