Whither France
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I was faintly appalled that the BBC over the weekend were basically annointing Fillon as the next President of France, they asume that the left candidate will not make the cut off to enter into the run-off, so it will be Le Pen for the far right against Fillon for the very right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
I see that the Parti Socialiste is polling behind the Parti de la Gauche (Left Unity equivilent).
Jean-Luc Melenchon is trying to position himself as the only left candidate (and possibly a sensible play too).
Quote:François Fillon sera donc le candidat du parti Les Républicains. C’est un Sarkozy ++ qui est choisi avec celui qui en a été le 1er ministre les cinq années de sa présidence. Le choix est donc finalement dans la logique des primaires : c’est le coeur de l’électorat de droite, le plus motivé, qui a été le plus voter. En sort donc le candidat le plus libéral économiquement et le plus réactionnaire sur le plna sociétal.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Republicans_(France)_presidential_primary,_2016
Quote:Unlike previous Union for a Popular Movement primaries, this was the first primary to be open to the general public.[2] The first round of voting took place on 20 November 2016. A runoff was held on 27 November after no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1]4,288,214 voted.
How many candidates can you choose from in the presidential election? Why is Le Pen regarded as having a better chance this time around?
You vote for one in the first round, the top two (if no one has 50%+) go into a run off. Le PEn is polling at 28%, Hollande at about 12%, Juppé was on about 28%, so it's reasonably clear the two right candidates will make the run-off, unless Macron or Melenchon can cannibalise each other and Hollande.
Quote:Benoît Hamon, the staunchly leftwing outsider who wants to introduce a universal basic income, legalise cannabis and tax robots has topped the poll in the first round of the French Socialist primary race to choose a presidential candidate. He will face the pro-business former prime minister Manuel Valls in a final-round clash between the party’s warring leftwing and free-market factions.He may have come first in the open round of the Primary, and will have a run-off with Valls to see who gets to be candidate: currently SP are languishing in fifth, but a radical outsider might just enable them to bump up the charts: basically, the betting is the left will have to group round one candidate to try and get into the presidential run-off (probably Macron or Melenchon); but who knows what can happen when a candidate is chosen?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38787061Hamon: game on.
BBC wrote:He has experienced a surge in popularity from a range of progressive plans, including a proposal for a universal monthly income for all citizens.Looks as if once again that the Far Right has stolen the Far Left's clothes, this time in denouncing globalisation and promising protection from it:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-fn-idUKKBN15K0M2As the news item points out:
Quote:There are some similarities between Melenchon's platform and Le Pen's, both sceptical of the EU and globalisation, but with very different answers as the former Socialist staunchly criticises Le Pen's views on migration.Mélenchon is the leader of the Left Front, a political organisation supported by the French Communist Party and some Trotskyists and Greens.
Fillon isn't doing too well:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/04/francois-fillon-french-president-chances-sink-penelopegateHe hired familly members as MP staff members, essentially funnelling the money into his wife and his pockets.This puts Macron in the driving seat (for more of much the same, he was a Hollandist cabinet minister.Apparently, Macron is on the receiving end of anti-semitism:https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/828195784394993664That he actually worked for Rothschild's bank seems to be the stem of this: but, he appears to be a continuity social liberal centrist.Notably, Hammon is pulling back, up to 16%, so there's swing ahead…
Sarkozy faces trial over party finances:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38890993Although not a candidate, it'll add to a kind of sleaze ffect (especially as Fillon's defence is 'Other MPs did the same'Of course, le Pen has been found to have mis-allocated EU funds:http://europe.newsweek.com/marine-le-pens-eu-salary-be-halved-after-misspent-funds-scandal-551025?rm=eu
Young Master Smeet wrote:Sarkozy faces trial over party finances:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38890993Although not a candidate, it'll add to a kind of sleaze ffect (especially as Fillon's defence is 'Other MPs did the same'Of course, le Pen has been found to have mis-allocated EU funds:http://europe.newsweek.com/marine-le-pens-eu-salary-be-halved-after-misspent-funds-scandal-551025?rm=euIt won't stop the French working class continuing to vote for a master to oversee their continuing enslavement. They'll just choose someone slightly less bad to do the dirty work.
I can barely believe it, centrist antlanticists Blair-alike Macron has a book out called Revolution.https://www.amazon.co.uk/R%C3%A9volution-Emmanuel-Macron/dp/284563966X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1486639482&sr=8-1&keywords=macron+revolutionNuff said. Any Francophones willing to waste money?
Whither the Netherlands, as well.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/geert-wilders-netherlands-dutch-election-freedom-pvv-far-right-donald-trump-a7576456.htmlPolls predict Geert Wilders will be the biggest winner after the Dutch elections on 15 March. He seems even nastier and more extreme than Le Pen, Farage and Trump, although he shares a coiffure that looks equally as riduculous as Trumps .
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