European Single Market: Will Britain stay in?
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I know we've already got a thread on the referendum, etc but I think we should also have one recording what happens to British capitalism plc's access to the European single market, if only to see if (our) predictions that it won't withdraw from this are going to be borne out.
So, here's some straws in the wind:
Quote:There's a way though. Thursday's result was not a vote to leave the single market; this was never on the ballot paper. Except with a Ukip-Tory alliance, any foreseeable Commons would block (forgive me) smexit. Britain can instead leave and seek a status such as Norway's — with free movement of labour. (Matthew Parris, today's Times)Quote:… it is likely that we will follow a very pragmatic or "liberal leave" process. And so we should. This takes Brexit as a multi-stage process that firstly sees Britain exit EU membership while maintaining single market participation. Such a halfway-house would put us in the European Economic Area (EEA), like Iceland or Norway. (Roland Smith, a fellow of the Adam Smith Institute, today's i paper)Quote:Sadiq Khan, mayor of London, also demanded a seat at the table. The mayor added that it was "crucial" that Britain remained part of the single market.(Today's Times).
They've yet to invoke article 50. For this to happen, an act of Parliament will have to be passed. However, the vast majority of Parliament are in favour of "stay". The great charade is only just beginning.I wonder how much of free hand the other EU states will give them in negotiations with the threat of exit in the background.
SocialistPunk wrote:Free movement of labour???Of course, for EU citizens, that was never realistically off the table.
Speaking of Hannan here's his vision of Britain after Brexit in 2020:
Quote:London, too, is booming. Eurocrats never had much sympathy for financial services. As their regulations took effect – a financial transactions tax, a ban on short-selling, restrictions on clearing, a bonus cap, windfall levies, micro-regulation of funds – waves of young financiers brought their talents from Frankfurt, Paris and Milan to the City.It was precisely to avoid such regulation that the maverick financiers who put up the money for the Leave campaign did so. They weren't concerned about the NHS or immigration, only with avoiding regulation of their activities as listed by Hannan.It might not turn out that way, according to a report today:
Quote:Britain's banks could lose automatic access to the financial centres of the European Union after Brexit, the European Central Bank has warned.London's banks and financial services giants depend on a so-called 'EU passport' to operate unhindered in capital markets across the Continent.And that passport could be withdrawn according to a veiled threat from ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau today, according to Reuters news agency.If Britain fails to secure continued access to the bloc's single market in its exit talks, this would make it difficult for UK banks to keep most of their staff and operations in London.'If tomorrow Britain is not part of the single market, the City cannot keep this European passport, and clearing houses cannot be located in London either,' Villeroy told France Inter radio.Villeroy, who is also governor of the Bank of France, added that Brexit talks must be quick to limit uncertainty.'There is a precedent, it is the Norwegian model of European Economic Area, that would allow Britain to keep access to the single market but by committing to implement all EU rules,' he said.'It would be a bit paradoxical to leave the EU and apply all EU rules but that is one solution if Britain wants to keep access to the single market.'Difficulties for Britain's financial giants with access to the EU would present an opportunity to rival finance centres like Paris and Frankfurt.This might not worry the Brexit financiers but it would worry the rest of the British capitalist class.
Interesting analysis here. In short who is going to pull the trigger? No one looks willing.http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935
DJPYou mean the contribution from someone called "Teebs"? You have to scroll down a bit on the page to see it….Very interesting indeed….
DJP wrote:SocialistPunk wrote:Free movement of labour???Of course, for EU citizens, that was never realistically off the table.
It's a shame the Brexit voters in this country couldn't see that. They were conned by slogans and "Bullshit Propaganda".
Nigel Farage admitted on tv, that it was a mistake for Brexit to claim that an extra £350 million a week could be spent on the N.H.S.Conservative Cabinet member, Chris Grayling allegedly said that Brexit will allow a "much more managed" immigration system.In the light of these misleading statements, is there any legal reason for a precedent to be set for the Remain camp to call for a rerun ?
Gerard Batten, UKIP MEP, Brexit on steroids
Quote:“And regarding the “convoluted process of withdrawal” under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. I am totally opposed to that. We should get out very quickly, and the way that we can do that is just be repealing the 1973 European Communities Act; parliament would then be sovereign, all of the EU directives have been transposed into acts of parliament so there won’t be any chaos because they are still in place and we can repeal them over a period of two, three, or four years until we get rid of most of the EU legislation, except what we want to be left with…If we repealed the 1973 Act we could technically be out [of the EU] Monday morning – it depends on how quickly parliament can put it through. If we go down the Article 50 route it could take 2 years or it could take 10 years because this time period can be extended indefinitely.”DJP wrote:They've yet to invoke article 50. For this to happen, an act of Parliament will have to be passed. However, the vast majority of Parliament are in favour of "stay". The great charade is only just beginning.No Act required, and it's debatable if a resolution is even required, but it is likely (and a government would be unlikely to want to move by executive fiat alone), but they could.
Just seen this on FaceBook. The petition for a second referendum, that now has well over two million signatures, was set up by a pro Brexit, politics student.You couldn't make this stuff up.http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/683410/EXCLUSIVE-The-VOTE-LEAVE-backer-whose-petition-could-inadvertently-derail-the-Brexit
Mr Healey wrote:"I am a strategist and one of those strategies has been wrongly hijacked by the remain campaign."Here's Boris Johnson in today's Daily Torygraph which the Independent reports under the headline 'Boris Johnson says UK will 'still have access to single market’ despite Brexit'.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-eu-referendum-single-market-brexit-a7104846.htmlA bit ambiguous as of course Britain will have access to the single market but the question is will it have free access?
Quote:In his column for The Telegraph, Mr Johnson said: “I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be.“EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.“British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.The other side of British people being still"able to go and work in the EU" is that EU people would still be able to "go and work" in the UK. The two would have to go together but of course he doesn't emphasise that.Here's what the German CBI said (before the vote for Brexit):
Quote:A German industry boss has said it would be "very, very foolish" to impose tariffs on UK goods if Britain votes to leave the EU.Markus Kerber, the head of BDI, or federation of German industries, is urging Germany and the EU to create a free-trade regime that could be imposed in the event of Brexit."Imposing trade barriers, imposing protectionist measures between our two countries – or between the two political centres, the European Union on the one hand and the UK on the other – would be a very, very foolish thing in the 21st century," Mr Kerber told the BBC's World Service."The BDI would urge politicians on both sides to come up with a trade regime that enables us to uphold and maintain the levels of trade we have, although it will become more difficult."It looks as if those who voted for Brexit believing the talk about "using for the NHS the £350 million a week the UK pays to Brussels" and "ending immigration" have been well and truly conned by the cynical vote-catchers who led the Leave campaign. Now they are talking differently. Here's what the objectionable Tory MEP Daniel Hannan is now saying, according to Today's Times:
Quote:Another prominent member of Vote Leave, the MEP Daniel Hannan, came under fire for saying that a post-Brexit Britain could still join the single market with its free movement of labour rules …. Mr Hannan told the BBC that the Vote Leave campaign was about removing "legal entitlement to live in other countries, to vote in other countries and to claim welfare and to have some university tuition."Reference has already been made in this thread to his clash with Evan Davies where he said:
Quote:Mr Hannan infuriated BBC Newsnight host Evan Davis with his claims last night, hours after the result revealed a sensational win for Leave.Mr Hannan insisted shifting Britain to a Norway-style relationship with the EU that frees the UK from political integration but maintains access to the single market was 'feasible'.And the MEP said this would mean 'free movement of labour' but not the right for EU citizens to gain other benefits.They have yet to concede that they will only be able to get free access to the single market if they continue to pay something to the EU for this as Norway does. Wait for that come as no doubt it will (have to). I can see how they're going to spin this one: "we've got to compromise with the 48% who voted to Remain" ….
From yesterday's Sunday Telegraph:
Quote:Remainers and "liberal Leavers" – to use a loose term – are suddenly on the same side. They both seek a safe settlement that protects Northern Ireland and Scotland, and the economy.Boris Johnson, Dan Hannan, and others in the sovereignty camp are signalling that they could live with a Brexit compromise that accepts EU migrant flows, but going back to pre-Maastricht rules that guaranteed only the right to work, before the concept of EU citizenship. This would be a modified variant of the Norwegian Model, or European Economic Area (EEA).A "soft-Brexit" would be accepted by the vast majority of Parliament, which has a duty in these unique circumstances to act on behalf of citizens who voted for Remain and as well as for Leave. This is not an event where the winner takes all.(….)An EEA-style compromise may be the only safe way to reconcile a divided country and ensure a safe withdrawal from the EU in managed stages.
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