More on Brexit

I suppose we should say something about what everybody else is talking about — the 585 page document on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. I’ve not read it myself of course but listening to some politicians you would think it was the final trade agreement with the EU. In fact the provisions regarding trading are only temporary till the end of 2020. During this period the UK, while no longer in the EU, will still be in the customs union and single market while a longer-term permanent trading deal is negotiated. Boris and the others cry “vassal state” but this temporary transition period was agreed months ago while he was still Foreign Secretary. Even the famous Northern Ireland backstop would only come into being if no trading agreement is concluded by the end of 2020.

So, from a capitalist point of view, all the options are still open. During the transition period the brexiteers’ Canada-style free trade agreement could be negotiated as could a Norway-style arrangement. The transition period can even be extended (once) for a given period.

If they play their hand right the government should be able to convince the politicians to go along with it.

If the document goes through it’s not going to make much difference to ordinary people. As one of the panellists said on Loose Women on ITV yesterday (as I said everyone’s discussing it, but don’t ask me how I came to be watching it), that on 31 March next year, which is the day after Britain formally withdraws from the EU’s political institutions, it will be the same as the day before: people will still go to work as usual and still go shopping in supermarkets as usual. Nobody will notice any difference, so why get worked up about it.

Having said that, our fellow workers from other EU countries will know that they are not going to be kicked out or lose what legal entitlements they now have, including the right to vote in local elections (need to check that with the 585 page document).

Of course if the document is rejected daily life will be disrupted for a while but what are the chances of that? I suppose that depends on whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist.

The other valid point that came up, one already made by Richard Dawkins in relation to the previous referendum, is how can you expect people to vote on a 585 page document. This of course is the general case against referendums for deciding matters even in socialism since there’s rarely a yes or a no answer but always something in between.

That’s ok. I had thought of submitting a version it to the blog. Just one thing. I need to check whether EU citizens already established in Britain will retain the right to vote in local elections. I know the UK offered this to the EU at one point but think the EU was reluctant to reciprocate. European countries are stricter on who can vote than Britain. For instance, even before Britain joined the EU it allowed Irish and Commonwealth citizens to vote. I hope the 585 page document has an index ! But it might not be in it anyway as Britain might just have unilaterally decided to allow EU citizens here now to vote (and stand) in local and regional elections. But don’t tell the bigoted Brexiteers.

Despite all the shenanigans at Westminster yesterday and to come, I am prepared to bet that there will still be a deal, i.e, there won’t be no deal. It might not be all that different from what’s being negotiated. I heard a Rolls Royce executive say on the radio this morning that “any deal is better than no deal”.

If there is no deal the capitalist class (except for the hedge fund managers and other dodgy dealers who financed the Brexit campaign) will be furious with their political representatives. I imagine that the working class too will not look kindly on those who would be responsible for an unnecessary disruption of their lives (as they weren’t with Heath in 1974 after the 3-day week).  The trading arrangements of the capitalist class don’t concern us, but we don’t want to be the innocent victims of the failure of their political representatives to come to some agreement whatever it might be.

He seems to be assuming some sort of hard Brexit, which is jumping the gun since what happens after the end of the transition period in December 2020 has yet to be negotiated. The sort of Brexit that is likely to happen (and always was) is one in which the British economy will still be closely aligned to the EU, i.e a withdrawal from the EU’s political, decision-making institutions while remaining linked economically. This will be the case anyway until the end of 2020. If this continues after that, as seems likely, the effect on the destitute and the rest of us will be neutral.

The effect of the fall in the value of the pound, due to the vote for Brexit and uncertainty about what kind of Brexit, is a different matter. In the past this would have been a formal devaluation and Hatold Wilson could have returned to re-assure the destitute (and the rest of us) that the “pound in their pocket” was unaffected. True, except that a devaluation/fall in value increases the prices of the imported goods which we buy. This is presumably what the UN expert means and has calculated. Of course if the value of the pound goes up again, as it did for a while until the uncertainty returned and may well do when there’s a final settlement, then this would be reversed. Imcidentally, some of the hard Brexiteers are arguing that with “free” trade the prices of certain food and clothing items would fall as the current EU tariffs on importing them would go.

The point I was making was about the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal. That would temporarily disrupt the lives of nearly everybody, just because capitalism’s political representatives had messed things up. I was coming as close as I could to agreeing that “any deal would be better than no deal”, literally any as we don’t need to care which since the capitalists’ trading arrangements don’t concern us. It’s their problem but we don’t want to be victims if their politicians fail to agree anything. Having said this, I think they will agree something, anything.