Russian Tensions
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Interesting article here. Well worth reading.
Hmmm- Read it, but I don’t think the suggestion about the Russian economy being on the point of collapse is very credible. I note the author relies on Ukrainian-friendly sources like the Institute for the Study of War and the Euromaidan press, but we have to be careful about accepting anything these bodies say. The Ukrainian regime has an interest in projecting this view of Russia as heading for collapse because that encourages the various European regimes to continue supporting it militarily. (its also to boost morale locally) The reality is that Ukraine is probably far closer to collapse than Russia
Much as I would love to see both regimes collapse and workers on both sides abandon this stupid war in their droves, the reality for the time being is looking more and more like Ukraine is going to lose the war and be forced to sue for peace. Russia will be able to outlast Ukraine and its economy, though struggling, is not on the point of collapse.
This article is I think more balanced…
This para from the article you refer to is particularly questionable
“Ukraine’s battlefield momentum won’t cause Russia to disintegrate overnight. Empires don’t vanish; they crumble slowly, then suddenly. The most likely outcome (65% probability) is a palace coup — security services and business elites removing Putin in favour of a transitional government that can negotiate withdrawal from Ukraine and sanctions relief.”
What battlefield momentum on Ukraine´s part is the author referring to? The Ukrainian military was evicted from Kursk and is steadily, albeit slowly, losing ground on virtually every front. Sadly, Putin´s popularity among the Russian population in March 2025 was 10 percentage points higher than in September 2022 with almost almost nine out of ten Russians saying they approve of his actions (Statista). As for the suggestion that Russia would negotiate a withdrawal from Donbas, let alone Crimea, as Zelensky wants, this is a pipedream and a recipe for a forever war. The Russian speakers in Donbas, 14000 of whom were killed by the Ukrainian military before Russia´s invasion in 2022 would not accept it.
At some point, the war is going to end – obviously – and hopefully the sooner the better. But it strikes me as very odd that the Mainstream Media that is forever going on about the imminent collapse of Russia and how weak it really is are also the very same warmongers telling us now that Russia is about to invade Europe and how Europe needs to massively increase its military spending. etc etc
These two scenarios fundamentally contradict each other, and that is another reason for being careful about not just accepting what the MSM says at face value
Exactly as I would say, Robbo.
The best thing for Ukraine and for all of us now would be for the Ukrainians to oust Zelensky and agree to Putin’s demands, ending the war.
By the way, I see warmonger Merz failed to get the majority he needed to become Chancellor, so far. Also, that an anti-Brussels pro-Hungary candidate won the first round of the Romanian election, which buggers NATO’s plans for leverage in the Black Sea. Good news, even though he’s called a “right extremist.” (Nothing more extremist than the Brussels, Paris and London gang!)
I always say better a “fascist” who calls for peace than a “democrat” who calls for war!
‘The best thing for Ukraine and for all of us now would be for the Ukrainians to oust Zelensky and agree to Putin’s demands, ending the war.’
Much more likely that Putin gets ousted than Zelenskyy. Though I agree with Robin that, whatever happen, the Donbas and Crimea are most likely to end up Russian.
” Much more likely that Putin gets ousted than Zelenskyy.”
I don’t know how you can believe that. One might as well say that Xi will be ousted. Putin is considered a god by 9 out of 10 Russians. His army is bulldozing Ukraine, in spite of western weapons.
I am simply pointing out that the notion that Putin is about to fall is obviously western propaganda.
I wish a pox on the lot of them, but the only way the Ukraine war will end, ending the militaristic bravado of the likes of Starmer, Micron and Merz, is for Zelensky to lose power in Kiev.
US to jumpstart production and distribution to navy of advanced thermonuclear warheads.
Trump is set to visit the Middle East 13 to 16 May. There are rumours that a summit meeting with President Putin may take place there.
Given that leaders do not operate in a vacuum, given the the choice between Putin or Trump then it’s no contest. In geo-political terms one of them is behaving in a manner designed to safeguard national sovereignty and the safety of its same language citizens living in another state who were attacked by that state. The other is behaving in a way which, looked at in similar geo-political terms, is, to use an American term, just nuts.
Obviously, from a socialist point of view we would condemn, and certainly not support, actions which have lead, and may continue to lead, to the deaths and maiming of thousands of innocent men, women and children including military.
If we’re talking of ‘leaders’ who are nuts then another one to add to the list is the one who was encouraged by the USA to engage in a proxy war with Russia. Add a few more, the European ‘leaders’ you know who they are, who seem hellbent on taking their states toward a catastrophe conflict with Russia.
For those who suggest that getting rid of Putin would improve the situation one should ask if the one coming afterwards would be so relatively restrained.
There are competing capitalist factions behind the scenes of all the actors involved here.
It seems reasonable to say that despite all the propaganda being issued designed to up the fear factor of others the majority of the propertyless class do not want to get embroiled into situations that could quite easily lead to nuclear confrontation. Why therefore are those on their individual power trips still being allowed to get away with it?Male Ukrainians not even safe from enforced conscription when living abroad. Kiev wants hundreds of thousands more for the meat grinder.
https://tass.com/world/1791371
Dragged from bars, like in press-gang times.
Might we see, after the final round of the Romanian election, an anti-Brussels confederacy taking shape in the south-east of Europe, an anti-Zelensky trio of states: Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, allied with Serbia, and maybe later with Bulgaria too?
Greece too has traditionally been aligned with Russia and hostile to Turkey (also a NATO member). Erdogan has rapproched with Putin since their hostilities in its southern border region with Syria seemed to fade into nothing. Turkey seems to favour negotiation in Ukraine as opposed to stoking the war, unlike most in NATO.
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