Ireland Elects
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Tim Kilgallon wrote:Fine Gael and Fianna Fail to form coalition? does this mean the Civil War's finally over?
Something will be over when these parties drop their silly names, i.e Tribe of the Irish and Soldiers of Destiny. At least Ourselves Alone means something even if it's quite impractical.
FG remain the biggest party, with 6 seats yet to declare, they are up to 49 (79 is the goal). If they hoover up all the independents, they can govern.I suppose the main message is the turnout – 65% – and that there is no left-wing alternative, apolitical populism seems to bbe winning out: across Europe it's the same, there appears to be no vision of a transformation of the situation, either grudging (or gleeful) acceptance of austerity, or anti-politics.
https://twitter.com/RTEdubSCENTRAL/status/704631683941834752Dublin South Central's last seat (Anti-Austerity Alliance v. FF), 170 disputed ballots: see, spoiling votes does have an effect…
http://analysis.rte.ie/european/2016/02/29/the-hat-trick-three-epp-prime-ministers-struggle-in-post-bailout-elections/Good points here. There is a trend…
All in bar one last seat (which may fall to Labour and save their bacon as a technical group in the dail). I'm beginningt o wonder if the main parties are suffering from not using STV to full effect: they are consistently under nominating, in order to retain a degree of patronage over who gets seats, but if they nominated more candidates than seats, which would weakn party discipline a little, it would probably pay dividends and squeeze out some of those Maverick independents.Noticeably a lot of independents are ex-party, mostly to the right. I think FG will be the government, backed by idnependentsm – people are talking minority administration, which would probably requrie confidence and supply from FF.
The contrast with Spain is interesting:https://theconversation.com/just-a-reminder-that-spain-still-doesnt-have-a-government-55884After a similarly inconlusive election (where the Right party was largest but not a majority) they still have no government. There Podemos is playign the SInn Fein role, but the difference in Ireland is the two largest parties are of the right, and may be moving to coalition in a way that the So"Socialists" won't witht he People's Party in Spain. In Spain the Catalans are filling the Indpeendent space (and lets recall, Irelands indpendents tend to be ex-Party, usually FG or FF).Portugal remains headed by a minority government too.
Seems the count on the final seat has justy finished, and Labour has made it to seven TD's, which will give them rights as a technical group in the Dail.https://twitter.com/CiaraLeena/status/705306287005954048Think that result also will put FG on 50 seats.The Horse trading has begun.
It seems the minority government is creaking, and a no-confidence motion is heading in the vague directioon of Enda Kenny: clearly FF reckon a quick heave could see a fresh election and a stable coalition for them.Kenny has been highlighting the risks of Brexit to Ireland:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/16/enda-kenny-says-ireland-will-oppose-any-post-brexit-hard-borderAs Kenny notes, the EU shores up the All-Ireland agreement and peace process: also, unmentioned in this article, the economic relations between Britain and Ireland are important (I wouldn't be surpised if some London planner is looking at pulling Ireland out of the EU to resolve the border question).
Young Master Smeet wrote:(I wouldn't be surpised if some London planner is looking at pulling Ireland out of the EU to resolve the border question).Maybe but I don't think the Irish ruling class is going to accept that. The Republican tradition has always preferred to be dependent on Germany rather than Britain. Hence their support for Germany in both world wars and in 1978 the choice to join the European Monetary System breaking the 1 to 1 link between the Irish punt and the British pound, i.e in effect tying it to the DM. I can't see them going back on that.
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