Reply To: Russian Tensions
“Out of an army half a million strong, that’s a spit in the Ocean”
Ukraine’s military has around that many members true but most of those are pencil pushers, truck drivers, mechanics, etc. Actual frontline troops is barely a fraction of that. Ukrainian losses are catastrophic and getting worse. I’m hearing a kill ratio of 15:1.
“again, look at the precedents, the Iran Iraq War, the Korean War: humans are sadly replaceable.”
Apples and oranges. The world of war is very different today.
“Yes, the precedents of prolonged attritional trench war is that one side will break in the rear, after horrific carnage, but that might not come soon.”
The Ukrainians are in the trenches not the Russians. (Though they have built solid defensive lines in rear areas). The Russians batter them with rockets and artillery til they’re shattered then move in with tanks and infantry, rinse and repeat. Almost all ground being taken is by Russia. The two big Ukrainian offensives were total disasters and though they took some territory it was a result of withdrawal not defeat and Russian casualties were light.
“And, don’t forget, Kyiv is basically pawning its future here into economic dependence on Europe, it will get the logistical supplies it needs not to break like that.”
Rubbish. NATO resolve is already crumbling and weapons shipments down to a paltry , photo-op dribble.
“If it’s a fair fight then both sides weary. This is not a fair fight.
There are still costs, even if unevenly distributed. Russia has, on paper, far more military resources, but it has to keep a lot in reserve to protect it’s own territory. It’s supply lines are in a hostile environment, and need to be protected.
Materiel can be replaced, simple destruction is inefficient, NATO has deeper pockets than Moscow.”
Doesn’t matter. Russia has been preparing for this conflict for years and has the infrastructure and supply chains in place to keep this war going til the end. NATO doesn’t. It’ll take several years to a decade to create the industries at scale. Ukraine has about one.
“Cutting the Polish border would also need to cut the Romanian and Moldovan borders: which would be come with severe supply line problems, and would just open the Russians to be being bled by guerrilla warfare.”
Which is probably why they won’t do it. My point was, they could.
“I’ll just note that Bakhmut has not yet fallen”
It’s literally days away now. Even the MSM can deny it no longer.
“a town with about the population of Redcar (not a huge city) has taken this long to fall”
The civilian population size is irrelevant. The Ukrainians spent 8 years turning it into a fortress and funneled huge numbers of personnel into the area. Some 10,000 are currently almost surrounded. Ukraine’s army, thanks to NATO, is the most powerful in Europe. Russia has already destroyed two iterations of it and is now working on the third. Sands through the hour glass. Ukraine’s loss is inevitable.
