Reply To: Russian Tensions
We should see the Russians taking advantage of the encirclement of Bahkmut and by-passing it to capture the more strategic cities, towns and highways that were the reason offered by TS for such a relentless and sustained assault on Bahkmut.
Having sacrificed the convict battalions of Wagner and leaving them to mop up the depleted defeated surrounded Ukrainians in Bahkmut, I await the Big Push by the Russian regular army to gain ground.
Unless substantial progress is made, then indeed it is a Pyrrhic victory. As YMS indicated by mentioning Vuhlbar, Russian successes on other parts of the eastern front have not been resounding successes.
It seems an early Spring has brought the mud to bog down any armour advance which can only benefit the defenders. The drawn-out defence of Bahkmut has allowed defence lines to be strengthened and new ones to be built.
TS may have forgotten but I recall he predicted a Winter offensive when the ground was frozen. Now it will be Summer before the ground hardens again and by then the West-supplied armour will have been deployed to the battlefront and will prove an obstacle for the Russian tank thrust. Ukraine’s shell shortage may also be resolved by Summer.
But once again we should not assume we are the Chairbourne Generals but if it took almost a year to take Bahkmut, I’m guessing any swift capture of crucial cities is unlikely to develop.
TS refers to Mariupol. Not to the loss of Kherson or Kharkiv. And never has he mentioned the total failure to take Odessa.
