Reply To: Russian Tensions
“From the get go you have been saying that Russia would steamroller the Ukrainian state very quickly. One year on this has not happened, tragically to the cost of thousands of working class people on both sides.”
My initial assessment was based on that of Scott Ritter. He expected Russia to follow their standard military doctrine, a doctrine that would have been used in a confrontation with NATO. But Russia refrained from doing so because they wish to preserve civilian life and, for the first months of the conflict, civilian infrastructure.
“As to whether there will be a Russian breakthrough in 2023, the outcome is probably pretty uncertain. The usually expected numerical advantage that attackers need to breakthrough defensive forces has long been set at about 3:1.”
Indeed, which is why claims that Russia attempted to take Kiev at the beginning of the conflict are farcical.
“Has Russia got the level of advantage oveer Ukrainian forces, I don’t know and I’m very confident that TW doesn’t know either.”
Actually. I do know because I follow trusted and knowledgeable analysts rather than propagandists and wishful thinkers.
“It is likely in the fog of war neither side can give an accurate forecast of these numbers.”
Not true either. I am very confident in the numbers state because the sources I follow have proven themselves time and time again to be correct.
“We also need to take into consideration that these are the minimum estimated numbers required. It is also possible that these numbers can be impacted on quality of arms and troops (A British force of 36,000 overwhelmed an Italian force of 150,000 troops during Operation Compass in 1940-41 taking 133,000 prisoners of war).”
Imagine that scenario but the numbers reversed. That’s the equivalent of the situation. The kill ratio is approximately 15:1 now in favour of Russia.
“What is certain that without meaningful peace negotiations and some settlement between these two capitalist powers, thousands of more workers will be fed into the meat grinder to keep the powerful elite in their positions of power.”
This about capitalism for one side only. NATOstan. For Russia it is about confronting NATOstani aggression.