Reply To: More on Brexit
Bruton has a point about Northern Ireland. At the general election 10 DUP, 7 Sinn Fein and 1 Independent Unionist were elected. In the referendum 56% voted Remain. But because SF refuse to take up their seats, only the views of the pro-Brexit DUP count and are seen as representing the views on Brexit of the majority in Northern Ireland. It also gives them bargaining power with the government that depends on their support. The voice of the lone NI MP who supports Remain, the Independent Unionist Lady Hermon is hardly heard at all even though it is her who represents the majority view on the issue.
If, because of the DUP taking advantage of its anomalous position, there is a no-deal Brexit, then a hard border will be erected between Northern Ireland and the Republic. It would have to be, by the EU to prevent goods that did not meet the specifications for its single market entering it by the back door as well as to collect tariffs. It would turn the clock back over 50 years to before the Anglo-Irish Free Trade Agreement of 1965,
The trouble with turning the clock back is that it goes against economic reality, which always has consequences, usually a downturn in economic activity. In Northern Ireland it could have obvious political consequences, not just a revival of the troubles but even a referendum vote to join the rest of Ireland.