Reply To: Russian Tensions
Three scenarios
1. Russia launches a new offensive on Kyiv, as well as in the Donbass and the province of Kherson. These attacks fail, however. Russia loses many men and a large chunk of the four provinces annexed. Ukraine retakes Russian strongholds and moves toward Crimea.
This scenario would pave the way to ceasefire and eventually to genuine peace negotiations (that would not be synonymous with Russian victory). For Ukraine, with victory there are no “negotiations”
2. A series of military wins for Russia from the end of the winter. The country retakes most of the Kherson province, threatens Kyiv directly from Belarus and marches on toward Odessa.
Such successes would see a clear Russian victory in Ukraine, consolidating the annexations and a pro-Russian government. Ukraine would lack the unity which is necessary to rebuild the country.
3. A third outcome for this conflict could see prolonged and protracted war, the inability of either protagonist to gain the upper hand.
This scenario does not preclude intense fighting and limited success on both sides but would fail to change the balance of the conflict.
Again, nobody, not even experts, hold a crystal ball.
But whatever the outcome, one prediction we can definitely make, the working people will pay the price of victory or defeat.