Reply To: Russian Tensions
TW – “No, that was Ursula von der Leyen’s figure. I believe the number at least double that.”
So you are working on the basis of 200,000 deaths.
Given that the estimate of deaths to seriously wounded ratio varies between 1:3 and up to 1:6 (because of the development of better battlefield medicine and anti biotics, the ratio of wounded to deaths has increased substantially oer time, the 1:3 ratio was the figure from WW2 so it is likely to be closer to the higher estimate), however if we go with a conservative estimate of say 1:4 that would give a figure of 200,000 dead and 800,000 seriously wounded but surviving.
Let’s look at the figures in the light of the fact that no estimate of the number of Ukrainian armed forces by either the West or by Russia has exceeded a number of 500,000 Ukrainian troops being involved in the whole war (the Russian estimate is far less).
Let us, for argument’s sake, use the highest estimate of total Ukrainian troop numbers of 500,000 given by the US, which is likely to be an exaggeration. And if we then look at the tooth to tail ratio as it is known in the military (the ratio betwen active troops and their logistical tail) we will find that this ratio has varied between 1:2.6 for WW1, 1:4.3 for WW2 up to 1:8.9 for the Gulf War and then use a conservative estimate of 1:4 the total of your figures, we would have an estimated ratio of 100,000 front line troops to 400,000 logistical troops.
This would mean that your estimate of 200,000 number would claim that 75,000 more troops had been killed than had ever served at the front line! (some logistical troops would have been killed, but your figures would give a minimum ratio of front line troops to logistical troops of 5:3, which is clearly ludicrous).
Not only that if 200,000 troops had been killed, of the remainng 300,000 survivors (Maximum US estimate), all of them had been seriously wounded, nearly three times each!!!
