Reply To: Russian Tensions
“Because it was two states with comparable scale armies”
Not true. Russia’s army dwarfs that of Ukraine.
“fighting trench warfare”
They’re not. The Ukrainians are in the trenches. The Russians are smoking them out of them.
“and able to resupply their armies: it is a suitable modern comparator.”
Erm, miss the conversation about NATO’s pantry being bear?
“Remember, the size of Ukraine means supply lines are a key feature of the war, and Russia cannot advance too fast, unless the Ukrainian army completely collapses, which it is unlikely to do while it is still being supplied.”
Russia doesn’t need to advance fast. Russia’s number one goal is the demilitarisation of Ukraine. Ukraine is obliging by funneling its forces into the Donbass where they are being destroyed at a horrific rate. 15:1 casualties. An approximate survival time of four hours for new Ukrainian conscripts at the front.
“Look at Artemovsk: if Ukraine manages to pull out it’s forces, Russia will face another three or four such city assaults to keep it’s assault moving.”
Abandoning Bhakmut is Ukraine’s death knell. All other defensive lines are hastily erected and fortified. Donbass will be fully liberated by August if Scott Ritter is to be believed and he hasn’t got much wrong so far.
“Yes, the possibility of sudden collapse is there.”
Bhakmut is mere days if not hours away from falling.