Reply To: Climate Crisis: Our Last Chance
Perhaps we should also consider Marx extrapolating from history of the possibility of a future “…where a fight that each time ended, either in a revolutionary re-constitution of society at large, or in the common ruin of the contending classes…”
Maybe, it is a time for the Marxist optimists to start to accept the conclusion that IF there is NOT going to be any social change, then our society faces ruination, that indeed we are no closer to socialism and are now on the brink of barbarism. [this is a debate we also should be engaged in]
The accuracy of this scientific report will either be confirmed or qualified or dismissed by further investigation. But to ignore such an early warning is itself absurd and reckless. We are not responding to the wild ranting of a politician or a journalist but to the supported findings of those trained in the area of research.
When you suggest phrasing should have been thus:
“…(“would be if the existing rate of extinction were to be maintained” would be more acceptable, but then that wouldn’t attract the same headlines)…”
Just how different is that from what I already quoted the lead author of saying?
““IF insect species losses cannot be halted, this will have catastrophic consequences for both the planet’s ecosystems and for the survival of mankind,” Dr Francisco Sánchez-Bayo said.
“UNLESS we change our ways of producing food, insects as a whole will go down the path of extinction in a few decades,” the report said.
Yes Marcos, I do accept that Nature is very adaptable to conditions but it is not always able to. We have known about the impact of poisons used by farming since Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring on DDT in the early 60s.
I’m sure the Scottish tourist board will delight in the disappearance of midgies and myself and the medical world will look forward to the extinction of mosquitos. What the unintended consequences will be, though, I have no idea.
The BBC reporting of the study does suggest that some species of insect will thrive in future and does offer more qualification on the consequences of the research – NB remember this was not new research simply a review of over 70 existing studies by others brought together to reach some sort of consensus of opinion.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47198576
“…the review also finds that a small number of species are likely to be able to adapt to changing conditions and do well.”
An expert not involved in the study is then quoted
“Fast-breeding pest insects will probably thrive because of the warmer conditions, because many of their natural enemies, which breed more slowly, will disappear, ” said Prof Dave Goulson from the University of Sussex. “It’s quite plausible that we might end up with plagues of small numbers of pest insects, but we will lose all the wonderful ones that we want, like bees and hoverflies and butterflies and dung beetles that do a great job of disposing of animal waste.” Prof Goulson said that some tough, adaptable, generalist species – like houseflies and cockroaches – seem to be able to live comfortably in a human-made environment and have evolved resistance to pesticides.”
It goes on to say, “…Ultimately, if huge numbers of insects disappear, they will be replaced but it will take a long, long time…”
And again this neutral expert is cited for his view.
“If you look at what happened in the major extinctions of the past, they spawned massive adaptive radiations where the few species that made it through adapted and occupied all the available niches and evolved into new species,” Prof Goulson told BBC News. “So give it a million years and I’ve no doubt there will be a whole diversity of new creatures that will have popped up to replace the ones wiped out in the 20th and 21st centuries.”
There you are ALB and Marcos, he agrees with you both. It is confirmed that the report is indeed scare-mongering and insects will still be around. You’ll just have to be around in a million years to see them.
I referred to the issue of lack of knowledge that may well change any conclusion and the BBC also does the same.
“99% of the evidence for insect decline comes from Europe and North America with almost nothing from Africa or South America.”
From anecdotal and personal experience these are exactly the regions where widespread inappropriate use of pesticides takes place and where monoculture is increasing so I suggest the chances are that the effect on insect numbers will be more severe when the regulatory authorities are more lax and giant corporations like Monsanto can impose the marketing of pesticides banned elsewhere.
I await good news but until then I have to endure and relay the prevailing bad news and it has to be differentiated from fake news.
We can always blame the messenger, those scientists who thrive on headlines to justify their jobs and acquire their funding…oh, where did I hear that claim about science…from climate change deniers…