Reply To: Russian Tensions

TS – ““We can’t defeat them in all directions comprehensively. Neither can they,” he said.”
Wanna bet?”

If I remember some weeks ago your prediction was that Bakhmut was in the process of being encircled and was facing imminent defeat.

The latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War believe that Russia has reached a stalemate in Bakhmut, with “several indicators supporting the assessment that Russian forces around Bakhmut have culminated”. Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28

The situation may well be very different and return to the Russian’s favour when the Russians launch their long-anticipated Sring offensive using many of the newly trained mobilised reserves.

My bet, however, is that will still not be the end of the war. Nevertheless, it may create the conditions for negotiations.