Global warming

"It is now plain that the emission of greenhouse gases... is causing global warming at a rate that is
unsustainable", writes Tony Blair in the preface to the UK government report which concludes that "there is only a small chance of greenhouse gas emissions being kept below dangerous levels." When questioned about this report on Radio 4 Margaret Beckett, environment minister, states "we could come to a tipping point where change could be irreversible."

This is not the much-publicised Stern Report of October, but an earlier report, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change,published by the UK government in January of this year, based on research presented by speakers at a conference held by the UK Meteorological Office in February 2005. (BBC Online,30 January).

On 28 February, a sizeable chunk (400 sq. km.) of the Antarctic ice sheet toppled into the sea. This was just the latest sign that the planet is heating up more rapidly than the quasi-official forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have led us to expect.

Reality outpaces prediction
Why does reality outpace prediction?

For one thing, scientists are trained to be cautious. Most are reluctant to “speculate” – meaning to think a possibility through to its logical end result. They are especially reticent when addressing a broad public. Those who occupy positions in or close to government are under pressure to avoid “alarmism” and be “politically realistic.” To preserve a modicum of influence on the ruling class they must maintain an impression of respectable complacency.