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Quick thoughts on north Korea

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Young Master Smeet
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Joined: 15/11/2011
Quick thoughts on north Korea

JUst a quick thought: North Korea's situation is untenable: it knows it could not survive, much less win, an encounter with the US.  It's only credible threat is that it could obliterate Soeul.  A strike on Guam would hinder the US (concievably hampering its Pacific strategy enough that China could step in).

More likely, it seems to me, after the Security Council vote on sanctions, DPRK is trying to ensure China relaxes its stance: China does not want war in region, does not want US forces extended all the way to the Korea/China border, and a united Korea blocking its South China Sea trade routes (though new trans asian rail routes may have lessened this strategic impulse).  Nonetheless, China is 76% of DPRK's markets, and the sanctions will cut DPRK's revenue by a third.

Also likely, is making credible threats may deter pre-emptive or preventetive action by the US.


Technically, even threatening to attack Guam gives the US justification to attack DPRK: that it hasn't yet is indicative that maybe it just wants to allow the siege to work.  After all, what teh US wants is a continual wedge issue, rational heads do not want a catestrophic war.

Young Master Smeet
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Joined: 15/11/2011

Useful post from Paul Rogers:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/trump-vs-northkorea-45echo

Quote:
The second and less obvious reason is to do with the nature of the administration now assembled in Washington. Its internal civil-military balance is the key factor. The state department is presently much weakened, with many key diplomatic and executive appointments still unfilled after nine months. This contrasts with the remarkable penetrationof the administration by senior military personnel.  

This is also a useful article:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/gabrielle-rifkind/what-does-north-korea-want

Quote:
Last week the United Nations Security Council agreed fresh sanctions against North Korea.  A resolution was passed banning North Korean exports and limiting investments in the country. The export of coal, ore and other raw materials to China is one of North Korea's few sources of cash. And it is estimated to be worth $3bn worth of goods each year. Earlier this year, China suspended imports of coal to increase pressure on Pyongyang.

In spite of this, President Trump tweeted last week that he was very disappointed with the Chinese and that, “our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet … they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk.” Provoking the Chinese will not be an effective way to proceed, since any identifiable successful outcome will only be achieved with the support of China. For their part, the Chinese are concerned that if North Korea collapses, it would leave China’s 1400-kilometre-long Yalu River border with North Korea exposed. It fears the potential chaos of state collapse and the crossing into China of up to 5 million refugees. From the Chinese perspective, as well, the North Korean regime acting as a buffer zone is preferable to a potentially reunified Korean peninsula with the threat of US troops on their border.

Marcos
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Joined: 23/04/2017

It is only a cockfight. There is not going to be any war at the present time. In the old days when the USA was the world power number one they  would invade any country right away, and most international organization used to support them, now they are in retreat. The world situation has changed, now they might be confronting another power armed with atomic bombs and closer to China, and the chinese rulers are not going to permit the US next to their borders. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Young Master Smeet
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Joined: 15/11/2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187

Quote:
Why has North Korea chosen to do this now? Firstly to demonstrate resolve. It shows the regime in Pyongyang is not intimidated by American threats and has not "backed down", as President Trump suggested two weeks ago.

Secondly, Pyongyang needs to test its new missile on a more realistic trajectory. Thirdly, such a test puts a strain on the US-Japan relationship. It makes Japan feel extremely vulnerable and tests US resolve.

A commentator was on the radio this morning calling for sanctions that cut off all money to North Korea: aka a full seige.

This is upping the ante, and it's clearly rattled China, who don't want war, and it will rattle a lot of Japanese people.  The only question is, can the US find a face saving route away from war?

Marcos
Online
Joined: 23/04/2017

Young Master Smeet wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187

Quote:
Why has North Korea chosen to do this now? Firstly to demonstrate resolve. It shows the regime in Pyongyang is not intimidated by American threats and has not "backed down", as President Trump suggested two weeks ago.

Secondly, Pyongyang needs to test its new missile on a more realistic trajectory. Thirdly, such a test puts a strain on the US-Japan relationship. It makes Japan feel extremely vulnerable and tests US resolve.

A commentator was on the radio this morning calling for sanctions that cut off all money to North Korea: aka a full seige.

This is upping the ante, and it's clearly rattled China, who don't want war, and it will rattle a lot of Japanese people.  The only question is, can the US find a face saving route away from war?

 The Yankees want every country to have Machetes, Mochas, and kitchen knives  to be able to invade them, and they always need a secretary to win a war, and in several places, they have been defeated by peasants

 It is not the same thing to go and invade Grenada, or  the Dominican Republic where the peoples from the Ghettos had sticks, old revolvers,  and kitchen knife to fight against them, and they killed 10,000 peoples  looking for Communists,  in a  country which did not have a communist party, or to pick up some USA citizens that were drinking rum and coke in Boca Chica, than to invade North Korea, Russia, or China which possess atomic bombs.

 Despite all their advanced armaments they had to sign an agreement with the  rebels from the Ghettos, they did not defeat them, the poor peoples continued fighting for more than `16 years

Before the war in Iraq, Lybia was the one who had the real weapon of mass destruction, and nobody was able to attack them, they did it when Kadaffi sent all the detonators, and they found him with his pants down,  and they are going to do the same thing with the members of the Colombian FARC 

It would be easier for them to invade Venezuela than to invade North Korea, and the real objective is China, and China does not want that kind of neighbour near their borders. These are terrorists against terrorists, pimps fighting for the same business deal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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